Adrian大凡 @Adrianwangweb3
e/acc,随缘分享阿尔法与宏观判断；中文/ENG；Macro&Web3.0&Geopolitical investment research；NFA&DYOR无投资建议 中华人民共和国 Joined September 2021-
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7月10日判断更新：宏观、美股、A股、港股、黄金、BTC 宏观面的变化：…
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从最新非农数据和利率掉期交易情况看，7月降息的可能性已大幅降至5%以下，9月降息的概率升至95%。还有时间，可以早做应对。
本周很多事情正在发生微妙的变化。 关于宏观地缘及货币政策的变化：…
试用了deep seek，有些感悟： 1.从最顶层的人类社会角度来看，AI工具将会成为有力的对抗熵增的工具 2.更早更深的掌握了AI工具的人，将会成为人类的新物种（掌握最先进的学习和生产力工具），并和旧时代的人类群体形成碾压级的竞争力代差…
今年11月可能发生这样一场危机，深切的影响美国的国运，并可能出现美股的闪崩： 让我们来做这样一种情境推演：假如哈里斯在大选中战胜了川普，获得当选，那麼基于MAGA激进的民粹立场，大概率会引发激烈的抗议暴乱，且这场暴乱的烈度会远超上一次21年1月的冲击国会事件。…
很多人在讨论民主党临阵换将的可能性。除非短期内拜登身体状况迅速恶化（包括枪击等意外事件），否则别人站出来替代拜登的动力是不足的。…
说一下特朗普枪击事件的几个判断： 特朗普枪击事件，应该是真正的刺杀，几乎不可能是某些人认为的，像当年陈水扁枪击事件那样，被怀疑为一场自导自演的戏码。…
分享两个明显的alpha机会： 在昨天到今天btc下跌带崩市场后。如果BTC跌破53k，插针或窄幅盘整一段时间后迅速突破53k，在设好止损的前提下，这是一个EV非常高的短线交易机会。这是机会一。 第二个机会，寻找目前在一线所listing的主流meme…
如之前推文判断所言，6月份后会开启牛市的下半场，原因见引用推文。 在下跌中恐慌抛售的散户们，对接下来牛市下半场的涨幅一无所知。
如之前推文判断所言，6月份后会开启牛市的下半场，原因见引用推文。 在下跌中恐慌抛售的散户们，对接下来牛市下半场的涨幅一无所知。
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