Random @BadMarketTimer

AI closes the gap between a specialist and a generalist when the generalist knows enough salient principles of the specialist’s field. AI does nothing for people lacking in logic and basic scientific understanding.

@policytensor The Iranians are not trying to win per se — too risky. They’re trying to drag it out. Most likely they are also being advised to do so.

@GlennLuk 🤣Stop reminding people America got where it is on the back of the crème de la crème of immigrants post WWII and the Cold War. There is no national consensus on its intellectual deficit. Let history take its course.

@nikstankovic_ 中国人把世界和人类想得太好了 …to channel Yang Jie Chi in Anchorage AK, but it won’t be easy. 人之初，性本善…… 儒教害人不浅

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@Ignis_Rex @ForeignAffairs @tcjost @mattinglee 3. There is a list of “rising stars” born in the early 70’s — 40’s is definitely too young. Xi will not name an “heir apparent” for fear of forming a 2nd power center.

@Ignis_Rex @ForeignAffairs @tcjost @mattinglee I’m a nobody but I’ll also tell you any ‘China expert’ who doesn’t know these points are not worth listening to: 1. Xi will get another term; 2. If there is a Polymarket on post Xi, the favorite will probably be Chen Jining, Shanghai party secretary

@Ignis_Rex @ForeignAffairs @tcjost @mattinglee Ding is an economy technocrat. Premiership is his ceiling. Xi WILL get another term. Cai Qi may be an interim if Xi “gets hit by a bus”. The lack of understanding in how Chinese leadership operates is appalling as is the unwillingness to learn for something so important.

‼️ Things As They Really Are, As They Really Have Been, and As They Really Will Be Fiorella Isabel's judgment of the matters she addresses in the quoted post has remained consistently impaired ever since she became disillusioned with the Russians for not fighting the kind of war she believes they should. For her, Putin et al. are incorrigible traitors to the causes she imagines they should have and the courses of action she believes they should take. Pretty much everything she writes in the post below is nonsense born of shallow understanding and myopic perspectives. Isabel simply cannot wrap her mind around the complexities and perplexities of the current revolution we are seeing in terms of the global military and economic balance of power, and the so-called "soft power" of international diplomatic relations. Perhaps most of all, Fiorella (among a great many) has never been able to comprehend the concepts contained in something I have been writing about for years, and which I have recently encapsulated in a single statement: When you are locked in a mortal struggle with an empire in existential crisis, you must administer death by a thousand cuts in order to not evoke a trapped animal reflex in a beast who, at the very least, could destroy a city in a fit of fury. These things must be done delicately. This concept has been at the root of all Russian actions since they realized, in the summer of 2022, that they would henceforth be fighting a war against not only the Ukrainians, but also the combined military and logistical power of the United States and its various allies around the world. It remains my judgment that, all things considered in their proper light and scope, Russia has managed its affairs with remarkable acumen. Since February of 2022, the Russians have systematically attrited — to a shockingly comprehensive degree — the military capability of the collective western powers. Even more shocking, they have exposed the inefficacy and vulnerability of most of the western legacy implements of war, and the woefully deficient magazine depth of its armaments. They have similarly administered a comprehensive demilitarization of Ukraine, which now stands on the precipice of total collapse. The Russians have inflicted upwards of two million Ukrainian casualties. And, notwithstanding the laughable analyses of the credentialed western "experts", it will eventually be recognized and universally acknowledged that the Ukraine War has produced the most disproportionate casualty ratio of any major war in modern times. The Russian prosecution of this war will be admiringly studied for generations to come in war colleges and military histories. Most meaningfully, in course of time, we will see all of Russia's originally enunciated objectives realized: - Russia will extend its strategic depth to encompass the Black Sea coast to the Danube, Transnistria, and at least all the lands east of the Dnepr — and quite possibly large swathes of the territory west of the Dnepr as well. - Ukraine, if it survives this war at all, will be comprehensively de-Nazified and de-militarized. - Assuming NATO continues to exist as a credible military / political alliance, its military presence will be forced back to its 1997 borders. I also believe Russia, China, and Iran will continue to solidify their "partnership". They will anchor the "Eurasian Century". The American empire will rapidly recede from Eurasia in coming years. The United States will enter a period of unprecedented political conflict and significant economic tribulation, and quite possibly increasingly strident voices for regional secessions, and organized movements tending towards the eventual balkanization of North America. I submit that the degree to which Fiorella holds to a radically different view of these questions is the measure of her error, and this will become increasingly apparent between now and the end of this decade.

Fiorella Isabel @FiorellaIsabelM

2 weeks ago

@imetatronink Yes and Russia just sold diesel to the U.S. at a high price than it would at home or to others. The U.S. will sell it at one as well. This is undermining Iran and Yemen. Europe is thrown under the bus, as is Zelensky. Russia does not have a mutual defense pact with Iran.

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@Ignis_Rex @ForeignAffairs @tcjost @mattinglee Xi will get another term. Ding is 64 now which is too old next term. Post Xi expect the old age rules to be back. He has no head-of-province experience. Western “analysis” on future China leadership that doesn’t seem to be aware of basic selection rules are a waste of time.

@fredsoda We have been in this “OK we got two good hooks* in this big one, let’s wear it down first” — more prudent than reeling it in right away and risking it breaking the line. *2 hooks = Ukraine and Middle East

@___frye Count out 10 and flip them over.

There’s so much money in AI because it’s the anti-reindustrialization play. The money isn’t just a bet on AI, it’s a bet on being able to avoid the painful economic reforms needed to reindustrialize for another couple of decades.

@AngelicaOung Putting aside the fact that the point of any system to select a government is to have capable and efficient governance for the people… Where in the world today will said maximalists exercise their one-man-one-vote ideal, were they to have citizenship anywhere they want?

@GlennLuk youtu.be/GZ4sAD44X2M?is…

@ShanghaiMacro You’re overthinking it. China wants a quagmire in the ME, ie for the US to be bogged down. The shift means Iran is doing better.

@RnaudBertrand @jekavanagh “Power of example” etc was from a well known Bill Clinton speech… But anyway, don’t think 孔孟之道works with adversaries of totally different cultural backgrounds who can only interpret it as weakness. So let me quote 江泽民, “too simple, too naive.”

My view on IQ differences and real life interactions: +/- 1 SD: roughly equal +/- 2 SD: borderline being able to follow chain of logic +/- 3 SD: logical reasoning incomprehensible

@RnaudBertrand It shortcuts Haiphong VN.

@mitchpresnick @carlworker It’s always been what’s between the ears, and they keep looking elsewhere.