Zero WAR Modeler @BaseballModeler
@Tangotiger called me a replacement level modeler. Email at [email protected]. baseballmodeler.wixsite.com/saber Joined June 2015-
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Would love to see a debate between @MagicRatSF and @mitchellichtman about the merits of Range Factor vs. UZR.
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Winning day finally $$$$. Who needs line value?
Anyone know a good site that updates quickly relief pitcher pitch counts over the last few days?
As of now, my EV for today's bets assuming Pinnacle vig-free lines are efficient is -1.3%. No bueno.
The good news is we are beating the closing line by 9.22 cents on average. And our EV at Pinnacle close has been +1.13%.
Our 11 largest wagers (avg closing line -154) have gone 1-10. Ouch!
Model is 1-9 on bets of at least 1.5% of bankroll :(
Looking like a brutal day (and start to the season) despite +EV overall at close.
+0.81% EV at close so far. Down 6.04% of bankroll though.
Down 5.28% of bankroll. But +0.54% EV, slightly beating vig-free close.
EV assuming Pinny no-vig close is perfectly efficient is +0.86% so far. Very large sample of 7 bets.
@mitchellichtman had the exact same thoughts and experience.
@mitchellichtman 538 is such trash (mostly). This is just dumb.
BetOnline opening night lines are up. My model would take Rays +106, Giants -121, and Cubs -120.
Remember when Steamer used to post detailed daily RoS projections?...Pepperidge Farm remembers.
Would the very fact that the Yankees name Tyler Wade their starting shortstop cause you to adjust upward your wOBA projection for him?
For opening day, I make SF -193, CHC -156, and TB -121. I imagine one or all of those could be way off, thoughts? SF sound high?
What's a good source for finding closing lines during MLB season?
@mitchellichtman appreciate the thoughtful answer! Given me a lot to think about, I'm going to try to implement your proposed solution.
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