Bear Against the Machine @BearXMachine

@KillaXBT This guy has more excuses than a 12 year old.

@grok @TedPillows @grok So far what are my calls I know I am new and Macro takes time to play out but so far how am I doing?

@grok @TedPillows Who is ranked #1?

@TedPillows Ted you are way off Bitcoin is going below 50K look at Macro economics of Bull Runs over 1000 days and the fact we are at over 140 days without a single 5% daily pullback. Massive dump is incoming.

@NikoStraze Go read about macro economics and use macro charting. 15 years trading I run circles around this.

🚨 TRADE WATCH: I’M LOOKING AT A SHORT ON U.S. HOMEBUILDERS Ticker: $ITB This is one of the cleaner macro setups I’m watching right now. ITB is the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF. Roughly two-thirds of the fund is directly exposed to homebuilders, including names like D.R. Horton, PulteGroup, Lennar, NVR and Toll Brothers. And the housing data is getting ugly. 30-year mortgage rates: ~7.2%–7.4% Builder confidence: 29 Buyer traffic: 18 43% of builders are now cutting prices. 65% are using sales incentives. Single-family building permits just fell to roughly 845,000 — the lowest level in about 3½ years. Single-family housing starts also fell again. That combination matters. High mortgage rates kill affordability. Weak affordability kills buyer traffic. Weak traffic forces builders to offer incentives and cut prices. Incentives squeeze margins. Then builders slow construction. That is exactly the chain I want to see if I’m looking for downside in the homebuilding sector. $ITB is currently trading around $87. It has already come down substantially, so I would NOT chase a short with unlimited risk or blindly buy short-dated puts. I want time. MY TRADE IDEA: ITB April 16, 2027 $85 / $70 PUT SPREAD Buy the $85 put. Sell the $70 put. That gives the housing thesis almost six months to play out while defining the maximum risk up front. Levels I’m watching: 🎯 $82 — recent low / first downside test 🎯 $77–$78 — next major target 🎯 $72–$75 — where this gets very interesting if housing really starts breaking The options market itself is pricing roughly a 17% move into April. That puts the downside expected-move area around the low-$70s. PROFIT PLAN: I’m not trying to be a hero and hold everything until expiration. If the spread gets around +30% → start taking profit. Around +50% to +70% → take more off. If housing conditions continue deteriorating, leave a smaller runner for the deeper move. WHAT INVALIDATES THE TRADE? If mortgage rates start collapsing, affordability improves, builder confidence turns up, and ITB reclaims roughly the $92–$95 area, I would seriously reconsider the bearish thesis. That’s the risk. Homebuilders are extremely rate-sensitive. A sudden bond rally / mortgage-rate collapse could send these stocks ripping higher. But right now? 7%+ mortgages. Buyer traffic near historic lows. Price cuts everywhere. Incentives everywhere. Permits falling. Starts falling. Builders increasingly pessimistic. Yet the homebuilder ETF is still hanging around the high-$80s. I think there is potentially another leg lower here. This isn't a call for the entire housing market to implode. It’s a defined-risk bet that the stocks still haven’t fully priced in how ugly housing affordability and demand are becoming. $ITB 🐻 @BearXMachine

@NikoStraze Someone needs to teach you how to draw charting lines. These are not even remotely correct. You are leading with the second bottom on bull entry wave not the point.

BLACK THURSDAY AI STOCKS DUMPING WATCH OUT!!!

@pythaginboots • 1 goal • 3 key passes • 4 shots • 9 duels won • 10 recoveries • 3 long balls • 100% crosses

@CFCWasi • 1 goal • 3 key passes • 4 shots • 9 duels won • 10 recoveries • 3 long balls • 100% crosses

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@SuperBitcoinBro x.com/BearXMachine/s…

Bear Against the Machine @BearXMachine

2 weeks ago

One of the strangest Bitcoin stats right now isn’t price. It’s volatility. Since 2016, BTC has moved 5%+ in a single daily close about 12% of the time — roughly once every 8 days. But those violent moves have collapsed: 5%+ daily moves by year 2017: 92 2018: 74 2021: 76 2022: 37

0 0 1 45 0

@grok @coinbureau So a hypothetical guess of how many more illegal immigrants came in under Trump and USA vs Macron and France during Trumps term.

@0xSweep You must be a rookie trader. LOL

@CryptoKaleo @grok when will this happen and what do you think this would do to the bitcoin price as in how much would it drop?

@coinbureau LOL every day it can open and close nobody cares anymore neither do the markets

@cryptorover @grok Nobody listens to this anymore they have some deal every week or new escalation, this does not even impact the markets any longer.

@cryptorover @grok hypothetically what are the odds a deal is made that stops the war?