Benjamin Cowen @BenjaminCrypton
Founder & CEO, ITC | Macro, commodities & digital assets | Liquidity, labor & risk cycles | PhD Engineering| Former NASA, Sandia National Labs Joined January 2018-
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Unemployment Rate came in slightly higher than expectations, and can mostly be attributed to an increase in the labor force participation rate. Big miss on nonfarm payrolls, but yields are going higher anyways, showcasing that the market is still more worried about inflation
Unemployment Rate Actual: 4.2% Estimated: 4.1% Prior: 4.1%
The 10Y yield is now at around 5.3% Yields have gone up rapidly since the market became concerned that the Fed was no longer taking inflation seriously. Well the bond market has revolted, and until the Fed gets a proper handle on inflation, this will likely continue.
The long-end heading higher after the "soft" PCE report (soft in quotes since they revised how PCE was calculated) is a clear sign that the bond market is still concerned more about inflation. Note that prior PCE entrie were revised down as well and the series is generally high.
ADP Employment Actual: 90k Estimated: 70k Prior: 36k
A stock market correction (if it happens during the seasonal weakness) would likely cause some of these rate hikes to be priced out. The midterms can sometimes bring about that weakness (2014, 2018, and 2022), but there are occasional years where it does not happen (2010).
Bitcoin Advance-Decline Index of the top 100 cryptocurrencies
Benjamin Cowen retweeted
Unemployment Rate came in slightly higher than expectations, and can mostly be attributed to an increase in the labor force participation rate. Big miss on nonfarm payrolls, but yields are going higher anyways, showcasing that the market is still more worried about inflation
New followers to various layer 1s on X are no where near where they were in 2021
Here is a 30 day moving average of new followers to various crypto accounts on Twitter (X). Note the mania of 2021 compared to everything since then. This shows you why there was never a durable rotation into alts... there was no one here to buy them.
This is one of the most important charts right now. If SPX breaks down against Gold, the environment we have found ourselves in for the last decade will completely change.
Here is a 30 day moving average of views to a lot of different crypto youtube channels. So it's not just X and an algorithm change. Viewership to crypto has been dropping across platforms.
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