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Yes, September has a bearish reputation.
But history shows it’s more of a pause than a death sentence.
The real story is who uses that pause:
Retail got flushed.
Institutions are still buying.
That’s what makes this September different.
Things that matter most in September:
$110K level → holding or breaking defines the month.
100-day moving average → reclaiming it = healing.
Funding rates → want them flat, not spiking.
ETF flows → small inflows on red days are very bullish.
Altcoin strength →…
Week 3–4
Either BTC is consolidating and building a base, or we’ve had one more flush and are finding support lower.
Both paths set the stage for how Q4 will begin.
Week 2
Macro data (jobs, inflation) starts coming in.
Rate cut Data Also coming.
If risk appetite improves, BTC stabilizes.
If data comes in hot, pressure on BTC continues.
How I’d read September week by week
Week 1 (early September)
If $110K holds, the base case of range & repair takes shape.
If it breaks, expect acceleration toward the bear case.
Bull Case – Quick Reclaim (25% Chances)
If institutions keep buying aggressively, BTC could quickly reclaim $117K–$118K.
That would flip sentiment fast and bring October optimism earlier.
Bear Case – Second Flush (35% Chances)
If $110K fails, BTC could slide into the high-$100Ks.
Another wave of liquidations would reset positioning fully before the next leg up.
My September Outlook (Scenarios)
Base Case – Range & Repair (40% Chances)
BTC chops between $110K–$120K for most of September.
Leverage is cleared out, institutions buy dips, market rebuilds slowly.
This sets up Q4 without rushing higher yet.
This wasn’t just a random dip.
It showed:
Thin liquidity makes BTC vulnerable.
Leverage builds up too quickly.
A single whale can still move the market massively.
BTC had 4 straight green months (April–July) before August.
After runs like that, August–September often act as cool-down months.
But historically, the major bull cycle continues after.
The overlooked side
Yes, September is often red.
But the dips are usually modest, not catastrophic.
And many times, September marked a local bottom before a strong Q4 rally.
That’s where the phrase “Sendtember → Uptober” comes from.
Why September has a reputation?
Since 2013, September has been Bitcoin’s weakest month on average.
Even in bull markets, BTC has usually dipped ~3–5% in September.
That’s why the bearish chatter is so loud.
This sell-off showed two very different behaviors:
Retail traders with leverage got wiped out.
Institutions kept buying dips.
Example: MicroStrategy now holds 628,000 BTC ($71B) and continues to accumulate.
While BTC broke down, some alts stayed stronger:
ETH fell 8% but held its 100-day average.
XRP stayed above its support zone.
SOL also held structure.
That relative strength matters for September.
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