faizco. @BitcoinMnemo

@waleswoosh Gm wale

@heyibinance Sure you can >_<

Zcash ETF just posted a record $93.56M weekly outflow. Here is how I read it. 1. ZEC doubled in September (about +102%), then fell from $1,653 on Sep 26 to $1,304 on Oct 3. 2. ZCSH shed $93.56M in the week ended Oct 2. Assets sit near $751M. 3. Open interest fell from $236.8M to $165M between Sep 18 and Sep 28, so leverage was leaving before the ETF money did. Counterfactual 1: if this were forced selling, OI would have spiked on liquidations. It faded steadily instead. Counterfactual 2: if demand had collapsed, $ZEC would sit below its early September base. It is still up about 13% over 30 days. My take: profit-taking after a doubling, not a trend break yet. A daily close under $1,270 changes that. Watch next: daily $ZCSH flows and the NU7 upgrade, targeted for Nov 5.

We are so back!! 🤌

faizco. @BitcoinMnemo

5 days ago

Enjoy the weekend

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x.com/i/article/2106…

@NoLimitGains >_<

@waleswoosh Congrats whale

@Crypto_Jargon Generational L

Enjoy the weekend

Mortgage rates just jumped 25 bps in a week, the biggest in four years. 30-year fixed went from 7.03% to 7.28%. 1. The 10-year Treasury closed at 5.29% on Sept 30. Mortgage rates track it. 2. Yields are rising on strong data. The economy was stronger in spring than first reported and consumers are still spending. 3. A 7.28% rate lands on a housing market that was already limping. Counterfactual: if weak data were the cause, yields would be falling. They are at 5.29% because the data came in strong. My stance: the 10-year sets the price of housing now. Watch it before the Fed.

@im_venofi @Crypto_Jargon Send it below $1

$LIT dropped 18% overnight with no clear headline. I think the market is reading the calendar. 1. On December 27, about 500M LIT starts unlocking for the team and investors. That is half the max supply. 2. Right now about 250M LIT circulates. Market cap is roughly $946M. Fully diluted value is roughly $3.78B. 3. After the cliff, around 3.2M LIT unlocks every week for three years. At today's price that is about $12M of new supply a week. 4. Buybacks burn about 30.6M LIT a year. The unlock adds more than five times that. Net supply flips positive. "It's just sell-the-news on the Bitwise ETP." Partly. The ETP launched on Sept 24 and LIT is down 32% from that day's high. But the product has not started staking yet, so it is not locking up any supply. "Revenue buybacks will absorb it." Not at the current rate. The buyback is real, but it was sized for a 250M float, and that float is about to keep growing every week. My view: bearish on LIT into December. Every bounce before the cliff gives funds a chance to cut size, and $4 is resistance until price proves otherwise.

@waleswoosh

@waleswoosh Send it

The Shielded Bitcoin paper gives you private $BTC payments. It doesn't give you BTC. Clara Shikhelman, Mikhail Komarov and Aleksei Moskvin of [alloc] init published it this week. It borrows Zcash's shielded design. Value sits in encrypted notes, spending one publishes a marker and a proof, and the amount, sender and receiver stay hidden. Bitcoin's rules don't change at all. My view: serious research, and a long way from something you should park money in. 1. The private transfers are recorded on Bitcoin but checked by separate software. Bitcoin can confirm a transaction even when the private payment inside it fails its own checks. 2. There is no finished way to lock real BTC in and release it back out. Until that exists, what you hold is a synthetic. 3. The reference design needs a trusted setup, which is only safe if at least one participant was honest. "No fork needed, so it can ship fast." Mert Mumtaz read it and says it needs years more research. No fork also means nobody at the base layer is securing it. "ZEC holders should be worried." ZEC pushed above $1,600 on Wednesday after a 2,300%+ year. A design with no working BTC bridge doesn't compete with a live chain yet. Fees stay visible too, so the wallet paying to publish a private transfer can still be seen.

Bitget hack update: 58,926 $ETH($158.68M) still sits in 8 wallets that have never sent a transaction. etherscan.io/address/0x770b…

Update: bitget hacker deposited 39.13M $XRP($60.09M) into #Binance via 1901 transfers under 6 deposit tags. #Binance can identify the accounts behind tags 469304937, 485339467, 470475839, 498721659, 472578608 and 475498055. xrpscan.com/account/rNxp4h…

Bitget hacker scattered 8.58M $XRP($13.22M) into 75 fresh wallets over 340 payments, none above 396,127. xrpscan.com/account/rKZ5kc…

Crypto's friendliest SEC commissioner leaves Oct 2, and the SEC drops to 2 people. Hester Peirce posted her resignation on X on Sept 25. That leaves Chair Paul Atkins and Mark Uyeda, both Republican appointees, with no minority commissioner and no replacement nominated. My view: the crypto rules people are celebrating this week sit on weaker ground than they look. 1. The staking guidance that dropped on Sept 25 is a staff FAQ. Staff guidance can be pulled without a Commission vote. 2. Peirce led the Crypto Task Force. The person who built most of this framework is the one walking out. 3. A 2 member SEC can still act. Under SEC Rule 200.41, when fewer than 3 seats are filled the quorum is whoever is in office, so Atkins and Uyeda can keep writing rules on their own. "So nothing changes." Short term, maybe. But point 3 cuts both ways. Rules passed by 2 commissioners with zero dissent are easy for the next Commission to call partisan and reverse. "Someone just as pro-crypto will replace her." There is no nominee yet, and until there is, every crypto win runs through the same 2 votes. Her last day is Friday.

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🚨 JAPAN IS PAYING FOR IRAN'S WAR WITH AMERICA'S BOND MARKET. Read the post above again. Then follow the money. → 93% of Japan's crude oil comes through the Strait of Hormuz → Brent is sitting around $104 → The yen is near 40-year lows → Japan's 10-year yield just hit 3.08%, the highest since 1996 Every barrel Japan buys is priced in dollars. With oil above $100 and the yen this weak, Tokyo needs a mountain of dollars just to keep the lights on. So where do those dollars come from? Japan holds about $1.1 TRILLION in U.S. Treasuries. The biggest foreign holder on earth. And that pile is already shrinking: → ¥27 trillion (~$173B) spent defending the yen this year → FX reserves fell $79.6B in August alone, the biggest monthly drop since 2000 → Treasury holdings fell in May, June and July Now look at what the post is saying. Energy security is non-negotiable. Every channel is open. Deals with Washington, direct talks with Tehran, and whatever happens off the record. In March, Takaichi walked into the White House with a $40B nuclear deal and a plan to stockpile U.S. crude inside Japan. "Whatever it takes" costs dollars. And Japan's dollars are sitting in U.S. bonds. Here's the loop: Iran chokes Hormuz → Japan's energy bill explodes → yen weakens → Tokyo sells dollar assets to defend it → U.S. yields rise → borrowing gets more expensive for everyone Iran can hit America's bond market without firing a single shot at America. Squeeze Japan's oil, and Japan does the selling. This week Iran offered to reopen Hormuz within 7 days if the U.S. lifts its blockade. If that deal dies, watch the yen. Then watch everything you own.