Brett Miller @BrettSwingLog

☀️Market Breakfast Alert: OpenAI $30B Mega Round, Oil Surge & Pre-Market Pressure 🔹 OpenAI $30B Mega Round Ahead of Anthropic IPO: OpenAI is racing to lock in commitments for a massive ~$30B funding round before competitor Anthropic hits the public market in mid-November. Driven by revenue acceleration from recent model rollouts, OpenAI's valuation could top $1.4 Trillion. SoftBank, Abu Dhabi’s MGX, and existing core backers are in advanced talks. 🔹 Energy Shock & IEA Reserve Release: IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol confirmed that member nations will release 20M barrels of emergency diesel reserves based on individual country specs and winter oil market conditions to temper surging fuel prices. 🔹 Oil Risk Premium Resumes ($WTI): Crude oil quickly brushed off temporary weakness from Trump’s Russian diesel tariff exemption, powered by escalating Middle East friction. Houthi strikes on Saudi energy assets and stalled US-Iran talks keep geopolitical risk premiums elevated, stoking sticky second-wave inflation fears and pushing US stock futures lower pre-market. 🔹 Tactical Stance (Today’s Gameplan): Expecting a gap-down open and a mid-day liquidity test, followed by a strong V-shaped reversal to new intraday highs. This macro pullback presents a prime mean-reversion dip-buying opportunity. Staying heavily conviction-loaded in core names ($KLAC, $STZ, $AMBA ). #StockMarket #OpenAI #Anthropic #CrudeOil #WTI #SPY #QQQ #Macro #TradingStrategy

$MACRO Update: Q3 Earnings Momentum, Resilient Fundamentals & Equity Bias 🔹 Earnings Focal Point ($META / $TSLA): Corporate earnings remain in the spotlight this week, anchored by mega-cap prints from Meta ($META) and Tesla ($TSLA) post-market Wednesday. Early Q3 results follow last week's solid bank prints, with ~10% of S&P 500 ($SPY) companies reporting—85% beating EPS estimates by an average surprise factor of +3.4%. 🔹 Growth Trajectory (~27% YoY): Consensus tracks aggregate Q3 S&P 500 earnings growth at ~27% YoY, driven primarily by heavy lifting in Energy ($XLE), Tech ($XLK), and Communication Services ($XLC). 🔹 Macro Resilience & Asset Allocation: Despite stickier inflation and restrictive monetary policy headwinds, underlying fundamentals remain intact—underpinned by resilient consumer spending and a re-accelerating manufacturing base. We maintain an overweight equities stance over fixed income, favoring U.S. Mid/Large Caps and Emerging Markets ($EEM). Evaluate allocations relative to individual risk parameters and liquidity needs. NFA. #EarningsSeason #SPY #META #TSLA #Macro #Equities #Investing #StockMarket

$KLAC Trade Execution Plan: Support Retest & Bounce Setup 📈 🔹 Technical Setup: $KLAC has successfully retested key technical support, presenting an optimal low-risk/high-reward entry as broader market bounce momentum takes hold. 🔹 Actionable Plan: Entry: Scaling long post-opening bell ($KLAC) Target 1: $200 (Initial profit-taking zone) Target 2: $210+ (Secondary expansion target) 🔹 Macro Context: Riding the broader market recovery tape into high-quality semi-cap leaders. 🎯 Personal trade execution log. Not financial advice. NFA / DYOR. #KLAC #Semiconductors #StockMarket #SwingTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #Options #StocksToWatch #TradingStrategy

☀️ Market Breakfast Alert: Big Tech Earnings Week, NVDA GTC & Bottom-Fishing Tech 🔹 Big Tech Earnings & AI Catalyst: Following recent AI headwinds, earnings from Meta ($META), Tesla ($TSLA), Lam Research ($LRCX), and Texas Instruments ($TXN) will test market conviction this week. Meanwhile, Nvidia’s ($NVDA) GTC Conference in Berlin serves as a critical pressure test for AI demand visibility. 🔹 Macro Turbulence vs. Morgan Stanley Bullish Call: Middle East & Russia-Ukraine escalations continue to boost oil ($WTI) and yields, stirring tech volatility. However, Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson notes the months-long tech pullback is nearing its end as market breadth bottoming creates a classic tactical buying window. 🔹 Anthropic GDP Vision & Policy: Anthropic’s model forecasts AI driving U.S. GDP to $44T by 2030, while pledging 5% equity to a public benefit fund. Geopolitically, Energy Sec. Wright clarified that Russian oil restrictions remain at historic highs, with diesel exports as the sole exception. 🔹 Tactical Stance (Today’s Gameplan): Expecting a gap-up open, followed by a mid-day dip/liquidity test, before a strong intraday reversal to new highs. Current levels mark a prime opportunity to ramp up equity exposure and aggressively accumulate quality semi/tech names ($SOXX / $NVDA / $AMBA ). #StockMarket #Earnings #Meta #TSLA #NVDA #Semiconductors #SPY #QQQ #TradingStrategy

Weekly Recap: Tech Sell-off, AI Credit Stress & Oil Shock ($110) 1️⃣ Friday Tape & Sector Shock: U.S. stocks closed lower Friday led by heavy tech de-risking. Semis took a brutal hit—the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index ($SOX) plunged -3.83% and Memory fell -6.28% ($MU,$WDC, $STX -5% to -6%). Neo-cloud provider CoreWeave ($CRWV) collapsed -12% (-25% on the week) as concerns grow over its $51B+ debt load. 2️⃣ Macro Inflation & Fed Signals: Brent crude touched $110/bbl (first time since May) on escalating US-Iran and Russia-Ukraine tensions. Coupled with the hottest PPI since 2022 and sticky CPI, energy continues to stoke second-wave inflation. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signaled no immediate pause commitment, though markets expect rates to hold steady later this month. 3️⃣ Weekly Performance & Rotation: Nasdaq ($QQQ): -4%+ (Worst weekly performance since June) S&P 500 ($SPY): -2% > Dow Jones ($DIA): +0.7% (Defensive rotation in full effect) Tactical Takeaway: AI is pivoting from a pure Capex play to a credit and revenue realization test. We remain cautious on memory names while leaning into high-quality defensive staples. 🧠⚡ #StockMarket #Semiconductors #AI #CRWV #Inflation #Fed #WTI #SPY #QQQ #TradingStrategy

$SOX Index & Position Log: Semi Headwinds vs. Defensive Strength 🔹 Philadelphia Semiconductor Index ($SOX): Broader semis slipped another ~2% today, directly testing critical technical support near 11,000. Expecting potential stabilization at these levels. Our tactical call to remain light/avoid semi individual names continues to prove accurate as macro headwinds play out. 🔹 Defensive Conviction ($STZ ): With Friday option expiration and weekend caution keeping market participants on the sidelines, Constellation Brands ($STZ) logged a modest +1% gain. 🔹 Outlook: Despite the low-volume Friday tape, fundamental thesis remains fully intact. Holding $STZ long with continued upside optimism toward my price target. #Semiconductors #SOX #STZ #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingStrategy #StockMarket #Options

Friday Morning Briefing: Rate Hopes, Soft Dollar & Oil Headwinds 1️⃣ U.S. Tape Check: Morning trading remains under slight pressure as Tech fatigue lingers. However, lower rate-hike odds are pulling the 10-year Treasury yield down toward 5.09%. 2️⃣ Global Breadth: Green across Asia overnight and Europe following through. Eurozone September CPI printed in line at 3.8% YoY. The greenback ($DXY) is easing alongside yields. 3️⃣ Energy Shock ($WTI): WTI crude slips to near $96 after the IEA accelerated the rollout of its remaining 100M barrel emergency reserve release. Yield relief meets tech drag—trade the levels carefully into the weekend. #Trading #Stocks #WTI #Oil

☀️ Market Breakfast (Oct 16) $MACRO Alert: Warsh Guidance, AI Realization & TSLA Roadster Catalyst 🧵 🔹 Fed & Macro Rate Path: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated a commitment to price stability, framing the Sept hike as removing "some accommodation" without pre-committing to October. While not promising a rate pause, the lack of further hawkish escalation offers relief. Markets are closely watching Treasury’s quarterly survey for signs of expanding buybacks ("Treasury Operation Twist") to cap long-end yields. 🔹 AI Monetization & Sector Rotation: HSBC highlights that AI is pivoting from a pure Capex narrative to a Revenue Realization story via accelerating cloud and GPU rental demand. Meanwhile, Kobeissi & Goldman note that reopened buyback windows and easing valuation compression position quality tech for a strong dual-rebound in earnings and valuation. 🔹 Single-Stock & Sector Dynamics ($TSLA / $MU): Tesla ($TSLA): Next-gen Roadster debut (0-60 in <1s with SpaceX cold-gas thrusters) surged +3% pre-market. High-margin halo effect will drive value across the automotive chain. Memory ($MU / $WDC / $STX): Memory continues to bleed pre-market (SK Hynix -3%, MU/SNDK -2%). 🔹 Tactical Takeaway: Auto supply chain strength & broad index mean-reversion today, while memory stays in de-risking mode. 🧠⚡ #StockMarket #TSLA #Fed #Semiconductors #MemoryChips #AI #SPY #QQQ

$TEM Trade Execution Log: Precision Catch & 10.7% Intraday Gain 📈 Executed a high-conviction swing trade on Tempus AI ($TEM) today, validating yesterday's technical setup: 🔹 Technical Thesis: Identified key demand support near $65. Price opened at $64.77 and undercut slightly to a low of $63.60,a textbook bear trap testing liquidity. 🔹 Execution & Return: Entry: Snagged the dip at $64.25 Close: $TEM surged to close at $71.13 (+4% on the session) Trade ROI: Net +10.70% intraday yield 🔹 Takeaway: Fortune favors discipline—buying with conviction into market weakness when price respects key technical floors. Plan the trade, trade the plan. 🧠🎯 #TEM #TEMpusAI #TradingLog #StockMarket #SwingTrading #TechnicalAnalysis

Brett Miller @BrettSwingLog

a week ago

$TEM Technical Setup: Key Support Test & Breakout Watch 📈⚡ Tempus AI ($TEM) is approaching a crucial technical junction on the charts. 🔹 Support & Accumulation Zone:Strong demand has historically anchored near the $65 level. A pullback toward $65 offers a

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Goldman Sachs Projects $218B WFE Supercycle in 2027 Following meetings at SEMICON West, Goldman Sachs forecasts global Wafer Fab Equipment (WFE) spending to surge ~45% YoY to ~$218B in 2027. This isn't driven by short-term inventory replenishment, but by 8–10 new mega-fabs scheduled to come online, extending order visibility directly into 2028. 🔹 Front-End & Capex Drivers ($TSM / $AMAT / $LRCX): Leading-Edge: TSMC's ($TSM) 2026 capex is projected at $85B to support accelerating AI datacenter demand. Memory: HBM rivalry is forcing aggressive DRAM wafer capacity expansion. Equipment giants like Applied Materials ($AMAT) and Lam Research ($LRCX) stand as prime beneficiaries of tight tool supply. 🔹 Back-End Test & Advanced Packaging ($TER): Transistor density in next-gen GPUs/accelerators is doubling test time. Teradyne ($TER) notes test times for the Rubin architecture will approach 2x that of Blackwell. Insertion points in advanced packaging and silicon photonics continue to expand. 🔹 Execution Risks & Divergence: NAND capex remains focused on tech transitions over greenfield capacity. Key risk: Any delays in cleanroom delivery or client equipment intake could push the 2027 delivery peak into late 2027 or 2028. #Semiconductors #WFE #TSMC #AMAT #LRCX #Teradyne

Anthropic Q3 Tops $16B, TSMC Beats & Broad Earnings Growth 📈 1️⃣ AI & Tech Earnings ($TSM / Anthropic): Anthropic posted a stellar Q3 with $16.8B in revenue, positive FCF, and strong margins. However, analysts flagged a QoQ deceleration in profit growth, raising sustainability questions. Alongside CoreWeave's ($CORW) credit stress warnings, this tempers near-term AI capex sentiment. On the hardware front, TSMC ($TSM) delivered another beat, maintaining robust top-line momentum. 2️⃣ Bank Earnings & Broad Market Strength: Outside tech, Q3 bank earnings prints have been overwhelmingly positive. The S&P 500 ($SPY) is tracking near ~30% YoY earnings growth, with all 11 sectors set to deliver positive growth simultaneously for the first time since 2021—underpinning exceptional market breadth. Broadening fundamentals support the macro tape. #StockMarket #SPY #TSM #AI #Anthropic #CoreWeave #Earnings

$STZ Execution Log: A Beacon of Strength in a Dark Market 🍷 Constellation Brands ($STZ) delivered another stellar session, surging +3% today and grinding steadily closer to my $135 price target. 🔹 Relative Strength in Action:As broader index weakness and macro gloom drag high-beta equities, $STZ stands out as one of the few bright spots—a textbook display of capital fleeing to quality in consumer staples. 🔹 Position Stance:Conviction remains rock-solid. Riding this defensive momentum all the way to $135. Stay disciplined when the tape gets heavy. #STZ #ConstellationBrands #ConsumerStaples #StocksToWatch #TradingStrategy #RelativeStrength #StockMarket #DefensiveStocks #Options

$MACRO Index Update: Key Support Levels & Tactical Stance 📈🇺🇸 Updating my latest technical outlook across the major U.S. indices. Downside risk appears increasingly limited from current levels as critical structural floors approach. 🔹 Key Index Support Levels: Dow Jones ($DIA): Support holding firm at 50,800 Nasdaq ($QQQ): Key demand floor defined at 26,000 S&P 500 ($SPY): Structural support anchored at 7,600 🔹 Tactical Stance on Memory Chips:While overall broader market downside is likely capped, capital preservation in semiconductors remains key. Staying strictly sidelined on memory/storage stocks ($MU / $WDC / $STX)—waiting for a confirmed base and bottoming signal before contemplating re-entry or dip-buying. Respect the levels, execute with patience. 🧠⚡ #StockMarket #SPY #QQQ #DIA #Semiconductors #MemoryChips #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingStrategy #Macro

$TEM Technical Setup: Key Support Test & Breakout Watch 📈⚡ Tempus AI ($TEM) is approaching a crucial technical junction on the charts. 🔹 Support & Accumulation Zone:Strong demand has historically anchored near the $65 level. A pullback toward $65 offers a high-reward-to-risk entry point for swing traders looking to build exposure. 🔹 Upside Catalyst:A decisive breakout above $73 will clear immediate resistance, opening up significant upside headroom and paving the way for the next momentum leg higher. 🔹 Execution Plan:Accumulating on weakness near $65 while watching for a high-volume confirmation above $73. Risk management remains key—let price action guide execution. 🧠🎯 #TEM #TEMpusAI #StocksToWatch #TechnicalAnalysis #SwingTrading #TradingSignals #Breakout #StockMarket #Options

$AMAT 2030 Long-Term Financial Model & Market Debate 🧵 Applied Materials ($AMAT) unveiled its 2030 long-term financial targets, aiming for ~40% non-GAAP operating margins, ~54% gross margins, and outperforming total WFE (Wafer Fab Equipment) by gaining >200 bps in market share. 🔹 Margin Disappointment vs. Share Gain Debate:The ~40% OM target failed to fully satisfy buy-side bulls expecting greater operating leverage—especially compared to Lam Research’s ($LRCX) ~45% long-term OM target range. Moreover, market skeptics highlight $AMAT’s overall WFE share sliding from ~19% in 2024 to ~17% in 2025, largely driven by restricted China tool access dropping from near-full historical access to ~70%. Management confirmed its model assumes current trade controls remain unchanged, meaning share gains must rely entirely on organic share steals in advanced nodes and memory rather than geopolitical relief. 🔹 Growth Drivers: Advanced Packaging & Metrology/Inspection: Advanced Packaging: Revenue projected to top $5B over the next few years, with HBM packaging breaching $1B in 2026. AMAT covers ~75% of HBM process steps and holds >60% share of its SAM. Metrology & Inspection: Optical and e-beam equipment revenues are both expected to jump >50% in 2026, driving total inspection and service scale past $3B. 🔹 Physical Supply Bottlenecks:Management emphasized that the primary constraint on industry expansion isn't customer capex willingness, but physical infrastructure: cleanroom floor space availability and sub-tier component shortages. Execution cadence will ultimately depend on fab/OSAT buildout timelines and supply chain lead times. 🧠💾⚡ #Semiconductors #AMAT #LRCX #WFE #HBM #AdvancedPackaging #TechStocks #TradingStrategy #Macro

U.S. stock indices erased pre-market gains after the September CPI report revealed inflationary pressures expanding beyond energy into core components. 🔹 Yields & Fed Swaps:Treasury yields jumped, sending the 10-year yield back toward its YTD high. Rates swaps now price in nearly four additional Fed hikes through 2027, driving the U.S. Dollar Index ($DXY) to fresh highs for the year. 🔹 Geopolitics & Energy ($WTI):Crude oil moved higher this morning following reports of an attack on Saudi Aramco's headquarters, injecting fresh geopolitical risk premium. 🔹 Corporate & Sector Flows:Bank of America ($BAC) shares pulled back after reporting a net profit decline alongside a $1.2B regulatory penalty. Morning sector action favors defensives: Healthcare ($XLV) and Consumer Staples ($XLP) lead, while Financials ($XLF) and Tech ($XLK) lag. #StockMarket #Inflation #CPI #FederalReserve #Yields #USD #BAC #Oil #Healthcare #DefensiveRotation

$MACRO Alert: U.S. Sept CPI Rebounds on Energy Shock Ahead of Midterms 🇺🇸 U.S. headline CPI rose to 3.7% YoY (unadjusted) in September, driven by a war-fueled rally in fuel prices linked to conflict with Iran. The print exacerbates cost-of-living pressures for American households just weeks ahead of the November midterm elections. 🔹 Key Inflation Metrics: Headline CPI: Rebounded to 3.7% YoY (first acceleration since May). Core CPI: Ticked up to 2.6% YoY (vs. 2.4% in August). 🔹 Market Reaction & Rate Path:Treasury yields spiked across the curve, spot gold and silver sold off sharply, and the U.S. Dollar Index ($DXY) marched higher. Traders are now pricing in a higher terminal rate, ramping up bets for three additional Fed rate hikes by year-end 2027. 🔹 Energy Shock & Political Backdrop:Fuel prices—driven by historic highs in diesel—have resumed their upward trajectory amid escalating Middle East tensions. President Trump continues efforts to cushion the fallout from rising energy costs, as polls indicate voter discontent over inflation could shift congressional control to Democrats in next month’s midterms. #Macroeconomics #Inflation #CPI #FederalReserve #Rates #Gold #USD #Midterms #Oil #TradingStrategy

Market Recap: Earnings Kickoff, Semi Weakness & CPI Countdown 🧵 1️⃣ Indices & Yields: U.S. stocks pulled back as initial Q3 earnings crossed the wire. 10Y Treasury yield softened toward 5.21% ahead of pivotal macro data. 2️⃣ Financials Split ($XLF):$JPM delivered a rare double miss but bumped FY26 NII (flat). $WFC dropped 2\% on mixed metrics, while$GS gained on top-line upside. 3️⃣ Memory & Tech Drag ($SMH): Asia-Pacific semi weakness (Kospi -5.5%, SK Hynix -4%) triggered broader profit-taking in U.S. storage. $MU (-5%),$SNDK (-2%), $STX, and$WDC all took a hit on valuation concerns. 4️⃣ Oil & Macro Outlook: Brent crude eased 1.7% to $104.78. Focus shifts strictly to Wednesday’s CPI release—the ultimate trigger for bond yields and FOMC rate expectations. Risk management into the CPI print. 🧠⚡ #Trading #Stocks #CPI #Fed #MU #JPM #WTI #USMarkets #Investing #Options

Market Radar: $SOX Bounce vs. Tactical Defensive Play 1️⃣ The $SOX Setup: The Philly Semi Index opened in the red and clawed back intraday, but don't mistake a relief bounce for a confirmed bottom. Downside momentum is not fully exhausted yet. 2️⃣ Avoid Catching Falling Knives: Staying light on exposure across chips, DRAM/memory, semi-cap equipment, and substrate materials. Waiting for a confirmed retest and trend reversal before entering long. 3️⃣ Position Log ($STZ): While tech bleeds, consumer staples are absorbing capital. $STZ pushed higher again today, grinding closer to my $135 target price. Continuing to hold with conviction. Risk first, execution second. 🧠⚡ #Trading #Stocks #SOX #STZ #TechStocks #StockMarket #TradingSignals #SwingTrading #Investing #Options

Brett Miller @BrettSwingLog

2 weeks ago

📊 $STZ Relative Strength Play Up +3.5% as institutional demand absorbs sellers around $110 despite tech pullback. 🔷 Buy Zone: $112.50 🔷 Target: $135.00 🔷 Focus: Risk first. ⚠️ Personal log. NFA.$STZ$SPY #SwingTrading

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$TSM & Semiconductor Supply Chain Deep Dive (Citi Note): According to Citi’s latest data, AI compute demand is pushing foundry and OSAT metrics substantially above consensus expectations. TSMC ($TSM) and ASE ($ASX) posted Q3 2026 QoQ revenue surges of 18% and 28%, respectively. Citi now sees a strong probability for TSMC to beat its full-year guidance, tracking toward mid-40s YoY top-line growth. 🔹 Foundry Spillover & OSAT Bottlenecks: Maxed-out advanced node capacity isn't just stabilizing core foundry revenues—it’s driving TSMC to outsource interposer and packaging steps to mature-node players like UMC ($UMC) and VIS, boosting their capacity utilization and gross margins. 🔹 Substrates & Upstream Material Pricing Power: High-density AI tape-outs are rapidly cascading upstream. Unimicron’s Q3 revenue jumped +23% QoQ (beating consensus by 600 bps), with ABF substrate shipments accelerating into Q4. CCL (Copper Clad Laminate) makers, following Q2 price hikes, are slated for another price increase in November—showing superior pricing power over downstream commodity PCB assemblers. 🔹 Supply Chain Bifurcation & Key Risks: The hardware boom is far from uniform. AI server and ASIC supply chains remain booked solid, while PC/notebook ODMs saw Q3 shipments plunge 17% QoQ (with another -7% projected for Q4), squeezing margins. 👁️ Watchlist: Industry momentum hinges on hyperscaler AI chip shipping cadences and logistics recovery following Thailand flood disruptions. 🧠💾⚡ #Semiconductors #AI #TSMC #NVDA #ASX #UMC #ABF #Hardware #TechStocks #TradingStrategy #Macro