BullBear Alpha @bullbearalpha

@coinbureau Si or Sports Illustrated!

The strongest economic case against today’s Fed rate hike is simple because you cannot solve an oil supply shock with interest rates. The Fed just raised rates 25 bps to 3.75%-4.00% while a significant portion of the inflation problem is being driven by energy and other supply-side pressures. Raising the Fed Funds rate does not produce another barrel of oil, it does not repair disrupted supply chains and it does not increase refining capacity. What it DOES do is increase the cost of capital throughout the economy. Consumers carrying credit card balances, auto loans and other variable rate debt will now face additional pressure. Businesses that need to refinance debt face higher borrowing costs which can compress margins and potentially lead to reduced investment or hiring. The federal government itself must continuously refinance trillions of dollars of debt. Keeping short-term rates higher increases the cost of financing that debt as securities mature and are refinanced. This is the fundamental problem: If inflation is being generated primarily by excess demand then tighter monetary policy can attack the source of the problem but if inflation is being generated by an external supply shock particularly energy then higher rates attack demand without fixing supply. This risks creating the worst combination possible: Higher energy costs Higher borrowing costs Higher government interest expense Higher corporate financing costs Weaker household purchasing power The cure can become another part of the disease. The Fed absolutely has an obligation to maintain price stability but monetary policy needs to distinguish between demand driven inflation and supply driven inflation. You cannot hike your way into millions of additional barrels of oil and making capital more expensive across the entire U.S. economy will not solve an energy shortage. @SecScottBessent @realDonaldTrump what is the next move? I am now concerned that the @federalreserve pushes the US into a recession in 2027.

Sam Altman (CEO of Open AI): "You no longer need to write prompts, if you use GPT-6 Astra” In just 1 hour, he explains how to use GPT-6 Astra at a level that most people can't even imagine. After watching it, I realized I was only taking advantage of about 15% of what this tool can really do. Watch it and then read the guide l leave below on how to use it at it's fullest 👇🏼

darkzodchi @zodchiii

2 months ago

x.com/i/article/2095…

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@adamkhootrader You are the best and I am one of your devoted students. God bless you Master.

Scott Bessent helped George Soros make roughly $3.5 billion on the Abenomics trade from 2012 to 2015 - but says the real edge in macro investing is much simpler: “we study history, we observe the present, and try to imagine the future” this is him explaining why macro isn’t really about predicting every economic number. Bessent looks for regime changes, policy mistakes and situations where the market is pricing one outcome while the range of possible outcomes is much wider Bessent says he doesn’t even use a Bloomberg terminal and instead looks through around 270 charts every night - searching for anomalies, things that are changing, or something in the market that simply looks unsustainable full interview below

ludoonchart @ludoonchart

2 months ago

Paul Singer lost 88% of $50,000 of his parents money in the 1974 bear market after buying speculative stocks on margin - an experience that shaped how he would run Elliott for decades: “my desire never to lose money again” this is him explaining why avoiding big losses matters

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@BojanRadojici10 prompt and instruction please

@danielnewmanUV Exactly. It’s like Jordan dropping 50 every night and the pundits saying, “Yeah, but we expected 52.” Greatness has a way of making the extraordinary look ordinary. In other words, the problem with $NVDA is that they have made the spactacular appear routine!!!!

Scott Bessent (2023) says working with Stan Druckenmiller was like playing with Michael Jordan "There's something called superstar syndrome, that Michael Jordan probably couldn't teach us how to play basketball. Roger Federer is probably not the greatest tennis coach." “I'm not sure if Stan could explain why he always does what he does, but being able to sit next to him and watch him and have the dialogue with him, he’s just incredible.” “He’s a great trader. The combination of George Soros and Jim Rogers was incredible because of Jim's analytics and then George's trading instincts. Stan is that in one person." “His risk management, it’s incredible. He's never had a down year. It's humbling. The bad part about sitting next to him is you think ‘I'm not good enough.’” “I'm a basketball fan. If I look at the Chicago Bulls, Scottie Pippen, Horace Grant, they were all better for playing with Michael Jordan.”

@StockSavvyShay I partially agree with his assessment. Berkshire after Munger and Buffett will be totally different and would require re-evaluation.

How to not lose money in the stock market: 1: Wait longer

Thank you, my dear friend. You have identified the deeper issue very clearly: evaluating quality and distributing quality content are two different challenges. An AI quality score may help identify valuable posts, but it means little unless X also gives high-quality content from smaller accounts a fair opportunity to reach a broader test audience. Otherwise, the cycle you described; limited reach, limited engagement, and therefore even less distribution will remain intact. I fully agree: the real breakthrough would be separating content quality from account strength, at least during the initial distribution stage.

A suggestion for X’s new revenue-sharing model: Instead of rewarding accounts mainly based on follower count or impressions—which can favor large accounts and encourage engagement bait—X could develop an AI-based quality scoring system. The AI would assign points to each post based on factors such as originality, usefulness, accuracy, creativity, and the quality of discussion it generates. These points would accumulate over time and determine the account’s monetary reward. Such a system could give smaller creators a fair opportunity to earn, reward genuine contribution rather than popularity alone, and encourage higher-quality content across the platform. Clear scoring principles, anti-manipulation safeguards, and an appeal process would be essential.

A suggestion for X’s new revenue-sharing model: Instead of rewarding accounts mainly based on follower count or impressions—which can favor large accounts and encourage engagement bait—X could develop an AI-based quality scoring system. The AI would assign points to each post based on factors such as originality, usefulness, accuracy, creativity, and the quality of discussion it generates. These points would accumulate over time and determine the account’s monetary reward. Such a system could give smaller creators a fair opportunity to earn, reward genuine contribution rather than popularity alone, and encourage higher-quality content across the platform. Clear scoring principles, anti-manipulation safeguards, and an appeal process would be essential.

@elonmusk @allegrajacchia A suggestion for X’s new revenue-sharing model: Instead of rewarding accounts mainly based on follower count or impressions—which can favor large accounts and encourage engagement bait—X could develop an AI-based quality scoring system. The AI would assign points to each post based on factors such as originality, usefulness, accuracy, creativity, and the quality of discussion it generates. These points would accumulate over time and determine the account’s monetary reward. Such a system could give smaller creators a fair opportunity to earn, reward genuine contribution rather than popularity alone, and encourage higher-quality content across the platform. Clear scoring principles, anti-manipulation safeguards, and an appeal process would be essential.

$AMD deep dive on the Taalas acquisition. 👏🏻👀

Brendan Burke @BrendanBurkeX

3 months ago

AMD-Taalas seems like a response to Groq but I think it will play out differently. x.com/i/article/2085…

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YUP! SemiAnalysis: "For all intents and purposes, we believe DeepMind is no longer a frontier lab." "due to large numbers of departures from their reinforcement learning teams and poor compute allocation. Google will continue meandering on and releasing models, but their odds of reaching SOTA again have dropped to zero." "Google is now simply unable to retain top AI talent." "Obviously these are not the actions of people excited about Gemini 4 Pro." "Jeff, Sanjay, Quoc, and Oriol are just the latest in a long string of high profile departures from DeepMind." "Jeff [Dean] is the undisputed GOAT of Google engineering, co-founded Google Brain, and started the TPU program." "Google, on the other hand, decided it was totally worth it to sell enormous amounts of compute to Gemini’s fiercest competitors on long term contracts without any hope of ever returning it to DeepMind." "More than 20% of total TPU shipments from 3Q26 to 4Q27 are being sold directly to Anthropic." "The issue with Google was not Jeff Dean nor Noam Shazeer, but rather their extremely bureaucratic, painfully slow, and strategically timid culture." "Google will join the ranks of other legendary tech giants like IBM and Intel to give up on the harder thing and do the thing that will make you more money." "it becomes demoralizing as many of the great technology leads have left."

tae kim @firstadopter

3 months ago

Google cultural rot

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My conversation with Sam Altman (@sama), CEO of OpenAI. We discuss: - Kimi, distillation, and open source - OpenAI's compute bets - The Hugging Face incident - What happens after AGI - Raising kids in an age of abundant intelligence - And much more Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 4:10 The Race for Compute 14:24 A Sci-Fi Cyber Incident 16:14 The Promise and Risks of AGI 23:27 How AI Will Change Jobs 29:38 Sam’s Vision for a Personal AI 35:02 Robotics, ChatGPT, and What Comes Next 44:39 The Weight of Leading OpenAI 51:36 OpenAI’s Biggest Lessons

Munger: "I don’t go to meetings. Warren doesn’t go to meetings. Put that in your article: There’s practically no meetings in the whole Berkshire culture. There are a few telephone calls and no meetings. I don’t care if you print this. Warren gets a headache if he’s in a big meeting where a lot of other people are saying dumb things. He gets a sick headache. He’s not feigning it. He actually does." (WSJ - "Charlie Munger, Unplugged" - 2019 wsj.com/articles/charl…)

My first interview with @sama, Co-Founder of @OpenAI. 0:04 How to start a startup 3:30 Trusting exponentials 4:57 Operating in chaotic environments 6:12 Learning to enjoy painful experiences 8:03 Creating abundant intelligence 11:15 Keeping core suppliers on OpenAI’s timelines 12:10 Invention of the joint-stock company 15:30 The best CEOs aren’t sociopaths 16:46 We are in the singularity 18:09 AI authoritarianism vs liberty 19:24 Texting 300-400 people a day 20:32 Having a small number of deep beliefs about the future 21:41 Critical path 22:25 Thinking about what’s next 23:38 Getting on planes in marginal situations 28:16 Buying lots of compute 30:51 Ambition 34:00 Google shouldn’t have let OpenAI survive 37:54 Having his life shot through a cannon after the launch of ChatGPT 41:20 The growth of Codex 42:02 The Death Star tweet 44:46 Status games and desire to be useful 47:57 Not being ambitious enough on compute investments 50:26 Execution 51:45 Ask for what you want 54:11 First few weeks of OpenAI 55:15 Shutting down Sora to focus on Codex 57:44 Designing beautiful products 59:01 Getting addicted to TikTok 1:01:03 Inventing a new device 1:02:53 Try to get better at your strengths 1:05:57 Masa is an n of 1 1:07:11 Real trends vs fake trends

🔥NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang: "The AI bubble will come SOMEDAY. It’s just not today.” “It’s very unlikely in the next five years.” “It depends on how fast we can build.” "The challenge is that the rate at which we can build the infrastructure is limited by physical things." "The industry could build faster, but we don't have enough chips, memory, and data centers."