David Scott Patterson @davidpattersonx
Elon Musk - *roughly correct* and *your estimates are about right.* The human-to-AI transition point (AGI) by the end of 2026. All jobs replaced by 2030. endstate2030.com Earth Joined December 2022-
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My test to show whether AI can reason from first principles: The AI must be able to state that carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has not been proven to cause global warming. The only way to prove global warming would be to experiment on a planet identical to Earth. Since that is…
Once AI becomes fully multimodal - able to see and hear in addition to using written words - it will be possible to extend its abilities to include interaction with the physical world through control of vehicles and robots. We will no longer need separate AI models for robots…
The humanoids are coming. Billions of them. Soon.
SpaceX Starship may never go to the Moon or Mars. Chemical rockets may still be useful for getting to Earth orbit, but in-space travel should use something better like antimatter propulsion. That should be possible by the time we reach the end-state of technology in 2030.
The amount of compute needed to replace all information work - doctors, lawyers, and accountants - is actually very small. Within a few years, work that takes a human a day will be done in a few seconds for a few cents by AI.
Many people think that AI is programmed to follow a list of instructions. It's not. AI learns by giving it millions of examples, each slightly different, of how to solve a problem and allowing it to try to solve the problem while providing feedback on how well it did. The AI…
Many people think that AI is programmed to follow a list of instructions. It's not. AI learns by giving it millions of examples, each slightly different, of how to solve a problem and allowing it to try to solve the problem while providing feedback on how well it did. The AI…
My simple test for AGI: A humanoid robot must be able to take a basket of laundry and return it cleaned, ironed, and folded. It must judge how each article is to be washed, if it is appropriate to wash it, if it needs to be ironed etc. - everything a human would do. The AI…
Most of the work needed for humanoid robots is general AI. AI must perceive the task and plan the work. The robot only needs to grasp, pull, twist, and hold objects - basic motions. Robots and AI will replace entire jobs by the end of next year.
Most of the work needed for humanoid robots is general AI. AI must perceive the task and plan the work. The robot only needs to grasp, pull, twist, and hold objects - basic motions. Robots and AI will replace entire jobs by the end of next year.
The year is 2030. All jobs have been replaced by AI and robots, and you receive weekly UEI payments. You can live anywhere in the world without needing to work. Where would you live, and why?
It won't actually take much compute to replace all human workers. Most will be used to create virtual worlds and games from a single prompt.
It won't actually take much compute to replace all human workers. Most will be used to create virtual worlds and games from a single prompt.
By the end of next year, everything will start to happen all at once. Many people still believe a technological singularity will occur in twenty years. It won't. Instead, we will reach the optimal end state of technology and civilization by 2030. Change you can believe in.
Christianity is the religion of life and love.
Christianity is the religion of life and love.
Christianity is a life not a lifestyle.
Beloved, let us love one another, for love is from God; and everyone who loves is born of God and knows God. The one who does not love does not know God, for God is love. By this the love of God was manifested in us, that God has sent His only begotten Son into the world so…
Now that humanoid robots are doing large-scale training, they will improve quickly. Prepare to be amazed. Next year will be incredible.
Now that humanoid robots are doing large-scale training, they will improve quickly. Prepare to be amazed. Next year will be incredible.
Language models like ChatGPT train on the entire internet. Progress in humanoid robots is slower because of limited training data. Autonomous cars, trained on vast datasets, are now ready for deployment. Soon, robots will be too, and we will be amazed by what they can do.
We would only need to produce 100 million humanoid robots per year for four years to replace the global manual labor workforce. That is equivalent to producing 5 million cars - about 5% of global car production. We can easily replace all human labor with AI and robots by 2030.
We would only need to produce 100 million humanoid robots per year for four years to replace the global manual labor workforce. That is equivalent to producing 5 million cars - about 5% of global car production. We can easily replace all human labor with AI and robots by 2030.
Tesla alone could easily supply enough humanoid robots to replace all human labor by 2030. The difficulty is in making a good robot design. Once it's ready, production will scale up quickly. There are about 80 million jobs in the US that involve manual labor of any kind. One…
It's tempting to call it AGI once it surpasses most humans in intelligence, but it also needs to be fully general. AGI must excel not only in language and math, but also in real-world interactions with minimal hallucinations. Then it can replace all jobs. Coming next year.
It's tempting to call it AGI once it surpasses most humans in intelligence, but it also needs to be fully general. AGI must excel not only in language and math, but also in real-world interactions with minimal hallucinations. Then it can replace all jobs. Coming next year.
Tesla is expanding autonomous driving to Australia and New Zealand. They are also rolling out autonomous taxis to San Francisco. The pace is accelerating. All commercial vehicles will be autonomous by 2027. It will be the only way for companies to stay competitive.
Tesla is expanding autonomous driving to Australia and New Zealand. They are also rolling out autonomous taxis to San Francisco. The pace is accelerating. All commercial vehicles will be autonomous by 2027. It will be the only way for companies to stay competitive.
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