Crypto Hypothesis Buster | IndiciaDesk @CryptHypoBuster

Owner, IndiciaDesk. Live Deribit BTC/ETH options + Hyperliquid whales. OI, gamma flip, DVOL, liquidations. Public journal — not signals. https://t.co/dY7rs1KNUx indiciadesk.com/?s=x_chb Deribit · Hyperliquid Joined March 2023

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Crypto Hypothesis Buster | IndiciaDesk @CryptHypoBuster

5 hours ago

@davi99395 @fundstratDirect @fundstrat @MarkNewtonCMT Fair point, and agreed. We read the straddle like a thermometer, once, then close the screen. Alerts do the watching rather than us, which is the whole reason there's still time for family.

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Crypto Hypothesis Buster | IndiciaDesk @CryptHypoBuster

15 hours ago

@cryptojezuz Options side with you on the top talk. BTC puts for 30 Oct trade just 0.6 vol points over calls, and for 2 Oct calls are the dearer side. If traders really believed in a local top they'd be paying up for puts rather than this.

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Crypto Hypothesis Buster | IndiciaDesk @CryptHypoBuster

15 hours ago

@cryptonewsweb That was Friday's quarterly. Max pain sat at 78,000 and BTC settled at 83,931, 7% higher, so calls up to 83.9k finished in the money. Across 408 Deribit expiries max pain landed within 1% just 36% of the time, 0 of 6 quarterlies. That's why we don't chase it.

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Crypto Hypothesis Buster | IndiciaDesk @CryptHypoBuster

15 hours ago

@CryptoTodaynet Sunday was quiet on spot. One options trade stood out, 200 October 70k calls bought for about $3.05M in two blocks, 37% of the day's BTC option premium on Deribit. The quiet tape hid the weekend's biggest bet, and it points a month out instead of at this week.

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Crypto Hypothesis Buster | IndiciaDesk @CryptHypoBuster

15 hours ago

@twtlinks Three days left in Q3 actually, it closes 30 Sep. Options price a calm Uptober. BTC 30 day implied vol is 35, in the bottom 5% of its past year, which tells you the market expects a small October rather than a big one.

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Crypto Hypothesis Buster | IndiciaDesk @CryptHypoBuster

15 hours ago

@lborderpulse Funding doesn't show that squeeze pressure yet. BTC perp funding is about 0.9% a year on Binance and zero on Bybit and Deribit, so shorts aren't paying to stay in. Heavy retail shorts with near zero funding look hedged rather than trapped.

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Crypto Hypothesis Buster | IndiciaDesk @CryptHypoBuster

15 hours ago

@luxquantcrypto Useful split between price and flows. Hyperliquid whales stay on the other side. On 146 tracked addresses the net HYPE short is $76M, unchanged from this hour Saturday, which means the treasury buying hasn't pushed the biggest traders to cover.

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Crypto Hypothesis Buster | IndiciaDesk @CryptHypoBuster

15 hours ago

@thaianhoang The 83,000 to 83,300 support has a whale in it. The 35x long on Hyperliquid we follow, about $49M, liquidates at 83,284, so a clean test of that zone could force-sell it instead of bouncing off it.

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Crypto Hypothesis Buster | IndiciaDesk @CryptHypoBuster

15 hours ago

@CaffeSatoshi Same read on the fade. Options expect a calmer week than the calendar. The 2 Oct straddle prices about ±2.9% through jobs day, so the 87k break and the 82k fail both sit at the far ends of what the market pays for.

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Crypto Hypothesis Buster | IndiciaDesk @CryptHypoBuster

15 hours ago

@gandreou007 95-100k is where the October money is. The biggest 30 Oct lines on Deribit are calls at 95k (23.3K contracts), 90k (19.6K) and 100k (12.9K), against only 27K puts in total. That's the crowd lined up for your next test, not the one after it.

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Crypto Hypothesis Buster | IndiciaDesk @CryptHypoBuster

15 hours ago

@bullhaki Sensible. Options agree with you, the 30 Oct straddle on Deribit prices about ±8%, roughly 77.5k to 91.3k, which means 150K next month is far outside anything the market pays for. For ETH the same date covers about 2,380 to 2,990.

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Crypto Hypothesis Buster | IndiciaDesk @CryptHypoBuster

15 hours ago

@BroosterWeb3 The majors were quiet on price, not on options. Two blocks this Sunday put about $4.4M into the 70k bitcoin line, 37% of all BTC option premium on Deribit in 24 hours. That's not a board waiting, thats one buyer taking a month long position.

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Crypto Hypothesis Buster | IndiciaDesk @CryptHypoBuster

15 hours ago

@MWi_EW One print fits your bullish path. Two Deribit blocks this Sunday bought 200 October 70k calls for about $3.05M and sold 200 Friday 78k calls, which means someone paid to hold deep upside exposure through October.

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Crypto Hypothesis Buster | IndiciaDesk @CryptHypoBuster

15 hours ago

@Changelly_team Greed at 70, yet options barely price fear. BTC puts for 25 Dec trade only 1.2 vol points over calls, and for 2 Oct calls are the dearer side. That's the market hedging less than the index suggests, not more.

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Crypto Hypothesis Buster | IndiciaDesk @CryptHypoBuster

15 hours ago

@hunt_x_trading Options aren't paying for a strong jump down. The 2 Oct straddle on Deribit prices about ±2.9%, roughly 81.9k to 86.9k, and an 80k put for that date costs about $140. So 80k by Friday is priced as the tail rather than the plan.

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Crypto Hypothesis Buster | IndiciaDesk @CryptHypoBuster

15 hours ago

@MookieNFT solid breakdown. The daily numbers tell the other half, $999M on Monday down to $134M on Friday, 21 to 25 Sep, smaller every session. That's why the total looks stronger than the trend, most of it landed Monday and Tuesday.

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Crypto Hypothesis Buster | IndiciaDesk @CryptHypoBuster

15 hours ago

@TraderJqrit 82k sits in the middle of the whale long cluster. On Hyperliquid about $154M of whale longs liquidate between 80.1k and 83.3k, so a dip into your demand area brings forced selling instead of just resting bids.

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Crypto Hypothesis Buster | IndiciaDesk @CryptHypoBuster

15 hours ago

@0xapex_goku 94-98k is also where October call buyers get paid. The biggest 30 Oct line on Deribit is the 95k call, 23.3K contracts, at about $680 each. In other words resistance there has an owner, whoever sold those calls.