Bitcoin Cycles Explained...
USD tops at red bar tops.
(not even red yet)
Impulse tops at blue signal tops.
(last cycle only one where red and blue were different - why most alts topped May 2021)
Bear market while red bars decline.
(ends when bars go green)
Bull market ramp…
The second cross on the Mass Index triggers the final Bitcoin parabola.
It's been the longest gap ever seen between a first and second cross, but the second has just landed.
Final parabola inbound?
People are starting to declare death to Altcoins again...
The last time I heard this was when the SEC was listing off many of them as securities and exchanges started delisting in June 2023. Coincidentally... right at the bottom.
The market has a funny way of rising from the…
Bitcoin Quantile Model & 2025 Playbook
If you model Bitcoin's probability space using a quantile regression model, you can identify three distinct zones: Cold, Warm, and Hot.
Bitcoin spends exactly 1/3 of its time in each zone. For the end of 2025, these zones are:
1) Cold…
There are still 2 more phases left to go in the near-perfect #Bitcoin RSI Bollinger Band % Phases.
All cycle tops have come on the 5th move over the .99% value line, and only 3 have been completed.
This includes November 2021 which almost no indicator was able to call a cycle…
Folks, I've slightly changed the design and made the forecast chart a bit clearer. Also adjusted the minor discrepancies between cycle bottoms and tops by removing the 2-week differences for better clarity. Is it better now?
Folks, I've slightly changed the design and made the forecast chart a bit clearer. Also adjusted the minor discrepancies between cycle bottoms and tops by removing the 2-week differences for better clarity. Is it better now? https://t.co/V3WqDVpNsc
Although there are still signs of acceleration in the #Bitcoin cycles, I sincerely hope original timing finds its way back.
Perfect 4-year cycles since inception, 208 weeks exactly.
The March 2024 high was the first deviation which made new ATHs about 1 year earlier than usual.…
These #Bitcoin RSI Bollinger Band % phases are the most accurate I've seen for the true cycle top in price.
It was able to weed out both first April double tops in 2013 and 2021 to only call each final top, something almost no indicator has been able to do. (purple phase 5)…
For 14 years #Bitcoin 4-year pattern has remained unchanged, until March 2024 came around...
This is the first time Bitcoin has proven with price that the pattern may be changing.
The Alternate Theory has been leaving clues:
The April technical top in 2021
The June technical…
Can we tell what the next #Bitcoin cycle top will be with a simple Fibonacci extension?
Maybe so...
Using the cycle retraces shown, the first two cycles came very close to the 2.618 extension and last cycle hit the 1.618.
Hitting the 1.618 again would be a price of $159,128.…
Level 3 of the Magic Bands still looms as the next #Bitcoin target at now $91,184.
It's normal for price to sometimes stop in between to consolidate before reaching the bigger goal.
The cycle top band has also now expanded to $122,884, which has been hit every single cycle.…
#Bitcoin continues to face resistance at ATHs, but according to the MVRV-Z, that's normal!
In 2017 and 2020 leading up to ATHs MVRV faced some difficulty at this exact point.
Our position still lines up perfectly for a cycle top that is one year accelerated in December 2024.…
Long-term holders are leaving #Bitcoin. Some write this off as purely ETF/Grayscale selling related, but many data points also show caution.
One of those is the 3-week Chande Momentum Oscillator, which has reached the cycle top zone.
It has not been long after this event that a…
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