MrBean@investorChinaHK @ETOvsAI

Regarding the recent slump in China's stock market—fallen to where it is now—I'd like to quote an ancient Chinese poem to capture how I feel: "When the royal army reclaims the Central Plains, forget not to tell your father at the family sacrifice." How's your feeling?

Chinese markets have been one long wail these past few days. Let's put the emotion aside and talk about something different. Everyone complains that the A-share market is just a "financing machine" — and they're right. But that's only the surface. The real cancer in A-shares is that the overwhelming majority of listed companies simply cannot build durable monopolistic advantages. What does that mean? An industry emerges, looks vibrant and promising, capital floods in, capacity gets piled on — and the ending is always the same: everyone involution-ing themselves to death together. Solar is the bloodiest case study. Chinese companies are world No.1, having expanded capacity to 200% of global demand. And the result? Main material prices collapsed by more than 80%, and over 130,000 companies were washed out of the game. Electric vehicles are now replaying the same script. In the first half of 2026, vehicle manufacturing profit margins fell to 1.5%. On a 100,000-yuan EV, the automaker nets 1,500 yuan — not even enough to take the team out for a decent dinner. Next in line could be optical modules. They're riding the golden age of AI-driven compute demand right now, and it looks beautiful. But look at who's entering: Foxconn, Huawei, Luxshare Precision, even BYD Electronic. Nearly 20 manufacturers have already succeeded in developing 1.6T products, and another 30 are on the way. When every manufacturing giant charges into the same track at once, fat margins enter their countdown. We've watched this script far too many times. Why does this keep happening? In China's market environment, technology moats can be breached, brand moats can be diluted. With no pricing power, only one weapon is left: slash the price. These companies are, at their core, cyclical assets. They earn the money of prosperity during the upcycle, and bleed together during the glut. They can be traded — but they don't deserve a long-term allocation. So what does deserve a long-term allocation? The answer is boring to say out loud: large state-owned central enterprises that lean on institutional barriers. For the average person, the optimal answer in A-shares might come down to just three stocks: China Merchants Bank, China Yangtze Power, and China Mobile. They aren't sexy. They won't double your money in a year. But they pay a steady 4% dividend every year, repeatedly hit new highs, grind steadily upward, and march through bull and bear markets alike — the most certain long-term choice an ordinary investor has in A-shares. The moat Buffett talks about — in China, the widest one of all is the system itself.

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What is your current view on investing in the Chinese market?

@jenzhuscott A friend of mine at ByteDance in China is working on a project in Ulanqab; he told me that DeepSeek isn’t anything special, and at ByteDance, the B300 model can recoup its cost in about 3 to 5 months.

@aystrvon In China, people often use the WeChat app for communication. I would like to make some foreign friends as well; I have already followed you. If you are interested, please follow me back as well – I might be able to teach you how to use WeChat for communication.

@theofinr I think I can become one of them; I’ve already been following you.

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@solopribuilds Science is dead, also.

I live in one of China's most developed cities. A close friend of mine is French — he works at one of China's most advanced internet banks, and honestly he's the hardest-working foreigner I've ever met. He keeps telling me: France is the capital of romance, home to great companies like LVMH — but the welfare system is too generous, and the social tensions are real. He worries about public safety so much that he and his Chinese wife decided not to raise their daughter in France, but here in China instead. My image of France has always been a romantic country. But with China and other developing countries sending so many high-value, affordable goods into Europe, a lot of European countries — France included — are going through a genuinely tough time. I do understand China's current model: driving growth through a massive trade surplus. But I also see why that surplus makes other countries uncomfortable. We're always selling, and France doesn't seem to buy much from us. It honestly saddens me to see a country that gave the world so much romance going through such a messy phase. If you'd like to know more about China, or if there's anything I can help with, just reach out — I'm always happy to help friends from abroad.

While AI has been booming in the U.S., in China it has instead fueled intense involution and rapid consumer deflation. AI-generated short drama stands out as the most successful commercialization case in the Chinese market. In 2025, China's micro-drama market surpassed RMB 100 billion (roughly USD 14 billion), doubling year over year, with a user base approaching 700 million — close to 70% of the country's internet users. The free, ad-supported model accounts for roughly two-thirds of the market, and Hongguo's daily active users have gradually overtaken those of mainstream long-video platforms. This signals that micro-dramas are no longer a fringe pastime for a niche audience, but are becoming a genuinely new form of mass entertainment. In the second half of 2025, as leading video models at home and abroad — ByteDance's Seedance and OpenAI's Sora 2 — achieved concentrated breakthroughs, AI comic dramas swept the domestic market once again. China's AI comic-drama user base reached approximately 120 million in 2025, is expected to grow to 280 million in 2026, and is projected to climb toward the 700 million mark by early 2027. The collapse on the cost side is even more striking. Seedance 2.0's commercial pricing has fallen to around RMB 1 per second, and the total cost of a premium AI-generated human-like short drama can now be kept under RMB 200,000 (about USD 28,000) — compared with RMB 1.5–3 million (roughly USD 210,000–420,000) for a top-tier live-action premium short drama. As the marginal cost of content supply approaches zero, what determines value is no longer production, but content quality and control of traffic entry points. That same challenge now confronts China's film and streaming platforms as well.

I have found that people are panicking and exiting Chinese technology stocks, as China is on the verge of entering a bear market. x.com/i/article/2112…

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@elonmusk Another UBI again.？

@elonmusk @AnthropicAI so, this is the begining of UBI?