Edward Conard @EdwardC0nard
Author of two top ten NYT bestsellers, Retd Partner Bain Capital, Publisher Macro Roundup. Tweets of noteworthy economic news from my research team. EdwardConard.com Joined August 2012-
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For 25 yrs, trade deficits funded debt-fueled consumption, not business investment, addicting voters to government spending without higher taxes (or inflation). If tariffs reduce trade deficits, it could raise interest rates, worsening this imbalance. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…
The top AI firms had been hiring software engineers at the rate of ~ 3k a month but their "net monthly hiring rate has dropped to zero.” @johnthornhillft speculates that firms believe they are close to AI that “could write software as well as any human.” edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…
Torsten Slok shows that banks are playing a smaller role as a provider of credit. Bank lending declined from ~27% of total non-financial corporate debt prior to the crisis to ~20% today. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…
Trump again signaled openness to raising the tax rate on earnings over $2.5mm to the pre-TCJA rate of 39.6%. "Republicans should probably not do it, but I’m OK if they do!!!" edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…
After rising 10pp from 1993–2019, the Labor Force Participation Rate of the US 55+ population has fallen 2pp since 2019. The LFPR of the US 55–64 cohort is now below that of the EU, down from a 20pp lead in 2000. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…
Dollar repatriations by Chinese exporters through state banks are propping up the RMB, @martin_lynge infers. "Goods traders are being asked/required to repatriate FX earnings to help increase onshore FX liquidity and thereby ease depreciation pressure.” edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…
Americans ages 44–59 (Gen X) saw income gains at a slower pace than both Millennials and Gen Zers. They also lag in home ownership. By age 31, Millennials/Gen Z had 2x the wealth that Gen X experienced at the same age. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…
Real median earnings for a full-time worker with a high school degree are at an all-time high and have risen 11% since 2000, prior to the "China Shock." @jmhorp notes “Every single state had positive real median wage growth from 2001 to 2024.” edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…
Jan Hatzius expects the US tariff rate on China to "drop from ~160% to ~60% relatively soon," and expects China to reduce tariffs by a similar amount. He continues to estimate a 12-month recession risk of 45%. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…
Morgan Stanley estimates that the largest public firms will see their EBIT profit pool rise 5% as AI diffuses through the economy. Their model implies that the profit pool of the top quartile of firms by adaptation will rise by 16%. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…
The center of gravity of the American economy has shifted west; 70% of the top 50 public company market cap growth occurred on the west coast btw 2000 and 2024 as well as 62% of the net market cap growth of all US companies. @amcafee edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…
While Florida home prices continue to decline as prices in most other states rise, @AzizSunderji argues “Florida's downturn is unlikely to be a harbinger of things to come” nationally due to factors idiosyncratic to the state. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…
A calibrated New Keynesian model suggests that unilateral tariffs can increase US welfare due to sharply lower prices for imported goods, despite lower GDP and higher inflation. Retaliation would negate the welfare gain. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…
China has stopped publishing hundreds of data points including land sales measures, foreign investment data, and unemployment indicators. Soy sauce production reports and vaccination data have also been culled. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…
Investment in European start-ups working on defence and related technologies jumped 24% y/y to $5.2B. A Bain & Company analysis finds venture investment in defence has increased 18-fold globally over the past decade. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…
CBO’s current forecast has the 10-year yield falling to 3.8% over the next 6 years. If the10-year Treasury yield settles at ~4.4%, it would add $1.8T to the debt over the next decade. @MarcGoldwein. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…
Stephen Jen warns of a potential “Avalanche’” of USD deposits. He argues dollar weakness could trigger large-scale, “non-linear” movement of up to $2.5T in dollar holdings to home currencies, particularly in East Asia. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…
US companies generated $1.2T in revenue selling to Chinese consumers, ~4X the trade deficit in goods between China and the US. “If the US has to decouple completely from China, it would result in a significant decline in earnings for S&P 500 companies.” edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…
A Rhodium Group analysis finds China's 2015 industrial policy has been largely successful, particularly in its efforts to move up the technological frontier. Btw 2015 and 2020 China gained a 4pp share of global patents in robotics and electric vehicles. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…
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