Election Preview @ElectionPreview
Election Forecasts and polling aggregates for federal, state, and local elections. Virginia Joined September 2022-
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We can now project that the Virginia Redistricting Referendum will pass Call made at 8:36 PM
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We can now project that Jay Jones will be the next Attorney General of Virginia. R to D flip Call made at 8:21PM
We can now project that Ghazala Hashmi will be the next Lieutenant Governor of Virginia. R to D flip Call made at 7:51PM
We can now project that Abigail Spanberger will be the next governor of Virginia. R to D flip Call made at 7:42PM
Forecasted Margins in Competitive Races Arizona- D+2.1% Florida- R+6.6% Michigan- D+4.0% Montana- R+8.0% Nebraska- R+9.7% Nevada- D+5.5% Ohio- R+0.1% Pennsylvania- D+4.5% Texas- R+8.9%
Democrat's Odds in Competitive Races Arizona- 58% Florida- 13% Michigan- 70% Montana- 7% Nebraska- 3% Nevada- 81% Ohio- 50% Pennsylvania- 74% Texas- 5%
Final Senate Forecasting Model Update‼️ (As of November 4th) Republicans🟥- 90.0% (51.7 avg) Democrats🟦- 10.0% (48.3 avg)
Forecasted Margins In Other Key States: Florida- R+4.2% Iowa- R+7.1% Maine- D+8.7% Minnesota- D+5.1% Nebraska 2- D+6.7% New Hampshire- D+8.4% New Mexico- D+8.4% Ohio- R+8.1% Texas- R+7.4% Virginia- D+7.6%
Forecasted Margins in Swing States: Arizona- R+1.5% Georgia- R+1.2% Michigan- D+1.4% Nevada- D+1.0% North Carolina- R+1.6% Pennsylvania- D+0.4% Wisconsin- D+0.6%
Final Presidential Forecasting Model Update‼️ (As of November 4th) Harris🟦- 50.8% (270.0 avg) Trump🟥- 47.9% (268.0 avg) Tie🟨- 1.3%
Our final Presidential and Senate Model update will be released tomorrow morning
Forecasted Margins in Competitive Races Arizona- D+4.3% Florida- R+6.0% Michigan- D+4.9% Montana- R+7.4% Nebraska- R+8.4% Nevada- D+7.1% Ohio- R+0.7% Pennsylvania- D+5.5% Texas- R+8.8%
Democrat's Odds in Competitive Races Arizona- 72% Florida- 17% Michigan- 76% Montana- 10% Nebraska- 7% Nevada- 89% Ohio- 52% Pennsylvania- 80% Texas- 5%
Ratings Changes!!! Michigan- Lean DEM---> Likely DEM Nebraska- Safe GOP---> Likely GOP
Median Scenario: GOP- 51 DEM- 49
Senate Forecasting Model Update‼️ (As of October 21st) Republicans🟥- 86.3% (51.2 avg) Democrats🟦- 13.7% (48.8 avg)
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