Fourth & Data @Fourthdata
College football by the numbers. Computer picks for every FBS game, graded in public. Power rankings, playoff odds & weekly pick'em. 📊🏈 Joined October 2026-
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Auburn (AP NR, our #23) just beat Georgia, and now gets LSU (AP #18, our #12) at home. Our model has LSU at 66%, a little lower than Vegas at 70%. Can Auburn do it twice?
@mzenitz @CBSSports @CBSSportsCFB @pbrown247 @RyanCallahan247 @benmckee14 @HaleMcGranahan @johnmwhittle @TomFornelli @bmarcello @chris_hummer @JTalty Tennessee (AP #11, our #5) at South Carolina is the only game this week where our model goes against Vegas. We have the Vols at 65%; Vegas has South Carolina by 2.5.
@Auburnanytime Our model agrees: LSU (AP #18, our #12) at 66%, so Auburn's about a 1-in-3 shot. Vegas is a little higher on LSU at 70%. They've done it before.
@On3 @PeteNakos Our model already had Indiana (AP #6, our #3) at 81% before this. Vegas has the Hoosiers by 7, closer to 67%. Starting a true freshman doesn't help Michigan's case.
Ole Miss at Texas might be the closest big game of the week. Our model only has Texas at 54%, even with Vegas at Texas -3.5.
After last week you'd think the model learned its lesson. Nope. It has Indiana at 81% at Michigan. Vegas only has the Hoosiers by 7, closer to 67%.
Upset Watch, Week 8: Tennessee at South Carolina is the only game where our model goes against Vegas. We have the Vols at 65%. Vegas has South Carolina by 2.5. Ole Miss at Texas is a coin flip for us, Texas 54%. Who you got?
Our guess at Sunday's AP Top 10 after that chaos: 1. Miami 2. Ohio State 3. BYU 4. Ole Miss 5. Indiana 6. Texas Tech 7. Notre Dame 8. Georgia 9. Utah 10. Tennessee Bama and Texas fall out of the top 10. What'd we get wrong?
After today, is anybody safe? Notre Dame at BYU tonight. Our model has the Irish at 70%, which means BYU wins this about 3 times out of 10. Another one?
Auburn 27, Georgia 24. Our model had Georgia at 90%, and Vegas had them by 19.5. Our #1 team just lost at home. Biggest upset of the day so far.
Penn State at Michigan is basically a coin flip for us. Model has Michigan at 53%, while Vegas has them by almost 7. Also this afternoon: Alabama 67% at Tennessee, Ole Miss 57% over Missouri, Georgia 90% over Auburn.
Update: Ohio State scores right before the half, 10-7 Buckeyes. Live win probability still has Indiana slightly ahead at about 60%, so the model isn't sweating yet.
Indiana 7, Ohio State 3 late in the first half. Our model had the Hoosiers at 59% before kickoff, and live win probability has them up to 68% now. Low-scoring grinder so far. Holding up?
@MichaelWBratton Our model had Texas at 76% coming in, about a touchdown and a half. Only up 7 at the half against that Florida defense isn't the script.
Biggest gap with Vegas today: Houston over Oklahoma State. Our model has the Cougars at 82%. Vegas only has them as 4-point favorites, closer to 60%. Either the model's onto something or this one ages badly tonight.
Gameday. Our model has Indiana beating Ohio State again, 59% at home. Vegas has the Buckeyes as 3.5-point favorites. It's the only big game today where the model goes against Vegas. Who you got?
Our Heisman Watch, Week 7 🏆 1. Jayden Maiava, USC: 18% 2. Giovanni Lopez, Wake Forest: 17% 3. Josh Hoover, Indiana: 14% Lopez at #2 is going to start some arguments. Who's missing? fourth-data.com/players 1. Jayden Maiava, USC: 18% 2. Giovanni Lopez, Wake Forest: 17% 3. Josh Hoover, Indiana: 14% Lopez at #2 is going to start some arguments. Who's missing? Heisman Watch, Week 7 🏆 1. Jayden Maiava, USC: 18% 2. Giovanni Lopez, Wake Forest: 17% 3. Josh Hoover, Indiana: 14% Lopez at #2 is going to start some arguments. Who's missing? 1. Jayden Maiava, USC: 18% 2. Giovanni Lopez, Wake Forest: 16% 3. Josh Hoover, Indiana: 14% Lopez at #2 is going to start some arguments. Who's missing?
@jdpickell @Polymarket Our model has Bama 67% in Knoxville, about 29-22. Tennessee's defense is the swing factor.
@TheBuckeyeNut Our model's going the other way: Indiana by about a field goal. Bloomington's a tough place now.
@KSRonX Our model's the skeptic on this one: Oklahoma 63%, roughly 24-19. Kentucky's been making models look dumb all year though.
Bear @the_jabronie
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