YH @Front322
一边投资一边旅行 Joined June 2021-
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在一条公路上平头哥偶遇蝮蛇，大战即发，经过20多分钟的缠斗最后已平头哥咬住蝮蛇的头部成功给自己加餐收尾。 冷知识：蜜獾对部分蛇毒有一定耐受性，但并非百毒不侵，遇到大型毒蛇同样可能受伤。 #蜜獾 #蝮蛇
konnichiwa! we are launching muse in japan today! 🇯🇵 it is now available—download it from your favorite app store! (i hope you're ready for the anime memes 😇)
Consolidating my personal digital life down to Muse + Todoist with Google Workspace for storage, calendar, and email that Muse mostly uses. Keep deleting apps off my phone, building anything I need right in Muse. Keep migrating off Apple apps due to poor agent integration.
The mining industry is the most profitable sector... And no one seems to care. Mining as a percentage of portfolio allocations sits at just 1%. At the same time, it is becoming increasingly clear that inflation will be the defining theme for at least this decade. During the inflationary 70s, you either owned hard assets or you were left behind. I expect history to repeat itself.
@ekwufinance 油价逼近三位数，基本面确实在收紧：一边是 Kpler 数据说中东出口回到战前水平以上，一边是伊朗袭击节奏开战以来最快，供给端放量和被打掉同时发生。伊朗这块的缺口如果持续，OPEC 的剩余产能还够填吗？
@tphuang ABF 载板是 AI 基建的隐形瓶颈：基板断货，GPU 再多产能也出不了货。华正、生益、宏昌、纽菲斯四家纸面上 2028 年产能能盖住国内需求，但要看深南电路这些 FC-BGA 大厂的 qualification 过不过。球形硅微粉、低 CTE 电子布、超薄铜箔，差一项整批白搭。你们觉得国产第一家过认证的会是谁？
#中概：腾讯一个月，砍了两个AI产品。 元器11月9日停服（2024年上线），QClaw 12月24日停运。都停新用户、按量原路退款、数据可迁走。 元宝all in新入口，旧平台一个个关。 大厂AI也"断舍离"：不赚钱的线不养，资源只留入口。砍得对吗？ 📌 学习笔记，只分享公开事实，不构成投资建议。
周三盘后，Meta先交AI答卷。 营收预期632.9亿（+23.5%），市场盯花钱：Q3资本开支约400亿，两倍于去年同期，FCF-91亿。（彭博） 小扎：模型成不成，先备1000到2000亿美元投基建。 股价7月来+37%，预期一月内-4%。涨的是梦想降的是数字，周三看差值。 📌 学习笔记，只分享公开事实，不构成投资建议。
#中概：拼多多今年在上海买了45亿楼。 三季度12亿拿下长宁晶耀虹桥T5整栋，直签铁狮门；加6月陆家嘴星展大厦33亿。（财联社） 空置率环比降1.1pct，科技公司自用购置集中释放。（仲量联行） 现金多，一种花法回购分红，一种买楼。你更喜欢哪种？ 📌 学习笔记，只分享公开事实，不构成投资建议。
@hanking66 按你这个算法，过去一年纳指的涨幅基本是两三个脉冲月贡献的，剩下10个月全是宽幅震荡洗人。这种年份赚钱效应都在结构里：AI资本开支兑现的几家不断新高，预期先行的趴着不动。财报季就是重新定价的窗口，箱体磨得越久、财报前后的波动越大。你觉得这轮是靠业绩打破箱体，还是继续磨到年底？
@ekwufinance 鲍威尔当年也是鹰派人设上任：接手4.5万亿资产负债表，说要缩到2.5万亿，结果干到9万亿。嘴上鹰、身体诚实，债市一抖就得救。现在联邦债务奔40万亿，加息等于给自己加税，宽松才是政治正确。这轮黄金牛市，买的不是通胀，是财政纪律的丧葬费。真进入降息周期，你觉得黄金和长久期美债，哪个弹性更大？
@citrini @AnthropicAI 花3个月拿Anthropic内部模型亲手做蝎毒血清，这比发paper实在——AI制药的分水岭从来不是模型多强，而是湿实验反馈回流的速度。生物的验证周期比软件长一个数量级，数据闭环转起来的团队才有复利。好奇你们下一步会先攻罕见病这种小闭环，还是直接上大适应症？
@tphuang 海鸥2.0尺寸加大，价格还压在6.29-9.69万这个区间，等于升级的成本自己消化了。比亚迪的打法一向是靠规模去摊供应链成本，但A00这个价格带天花板就在那。想问的是这一代的出海版会怎么定价？东南亚和拉美才是A00真正的增量。
@ekwufinance 德国9月PPI同比+6.7%、环比+1.9%，是2023年3月以来最大涨幅。PPI是CPI的先行指标，这意味着欧洲通胀可能还没真正下去，能源成本还在向下游传导。ECB原定的降息节奏会不会被打乱？今年剩下的议息会议悬念又回来了。
财政部这周加大长期国债回购，想压低利率，市场反着解读：越回购越担心美元，黄金守在4160美元上方。 “贬值交易”：债越发越多，货币越不保险，没人能印的东西被加仓。 达利欧8月说过：减债券，10-15%配黄金加点比特币。政府越救硬资产越香，你买账吗？ 📌 学习笔记，只分享公开事实，不构成投资建议。
Cost of living protests are spreading across Europe... The only solution governments have is higher taxes to pay for more spending programs... Some EU member states, like France, already spend more as a percentage of GDP than the Soviet Union did at the peak of communism. Cost of living conditions will only get worse. You either own hard/productive assets or you will be left behind.
#中概：大行同砍腾讯目标价，砍的都是AI。 瑞银770→740港元，摩根大通690→625港元。（智通财经、新浪） 这笔账：Q3收入+7%，经调净利-7%至650亿，AI支出160亿、单季亏150亿。 但剔除AI，经营利润+10%到+13%。主业赚钱AI花钱，这笔投入打几折？ 📌 学习笔记，只分享公开事实，不构成投资建议。
#中概：这轮油价，每吨"该涨"830块，只让涨了395。 9月11日那轮应涨830/800元，调控后实涨395/385，砍了一半多。 10月15日这轮：国际油价先跌后大涨，直接"不作调整"。（发改委） 三道阀：10个工作日均价、50元起调、天花板130/地板40美元。谁在贴？ 📌 学习笔记，只分享公开事实，不构成投资建议。
@tphuang 硫磺这组数据最有信息量：进口量降、进口金额大增，东北亚硫磺三季度价格大涨，说明是供给真缺而不是需求起来了。中国继续停发MAP出口，叠加波斯湾烃类化学品减产，全球南方的化肥缺口下个种植季只会更大。你觉得硫磺价格这个领先指标，对预判明年粮价有多大参考价值？
@ekwufinance 通胀确实是政府最顺手的减债工具：2020年美联储资产负债表从4万亿扩到9万亿，联邦债务/GDP反而从132%降到115%，稀释是真实发生过的。但这招有个前提——美元信用还没被玩坏。这一轮美中同时放水，“谁都印不出来”的黄金和石油反而成了少数对冲选项。你觉得这轮会是黄金先行，还是能源后来居上？
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