Thoughts on Markets: A LOT of speculative froth in Commodities now. The risk of a sharp unwind is rapidly increasing... For instance, Call buying in SLV near the highest ever – priors led to sharp drawdowns. Potential major topping candles in progress for Gold + Silver today, pending close. Even Energy Stocks (which I've been quietly bullish and Long all year) looking toppish despite Oil trading well. US Stock Indexes in general remain in a confirmed downtrend since last week. This week's failed bounces only increases the downside risks in my view. Meanwhile, still think Bond Yields or the Dollar aren't done going higher. The weak have been getting weaker for some time now (Rate-sensitives, Low-quality, and Negative-earning Stocks). Now if the few markets still going up (Commodities) join the selling, the probability of a broad Volatility spike rises significantly as everything gets unwound simultaneously. And the liquidity backdrop remains extremely poor – so this selling dynamic could be in play for several weeks / a few months. Watch how they close today... Will share some charts over the weekend. Good luck out there
@MacroCharts Note the 4 week head & shoulder top in RSP: 3/21 - 4/10