Full time M&A - Part time Trader | L/S & Opportunistic | My views, not my employer | CFC 🇺🇸🇱🇧theinvestingclub.substack.com New York, USAJoined January 2011
Fed cutting cycle starts this week
Market pricing 5 in the next 7
Can the fed surprise us with a 50?
Bullish still? Don’t get complacent but risky asset looking good
I’ve been scratching my head lately, but NFP and job openings appear to be the only visible crack (albeit barely visible)
AI productivity counters the effect
Market pricing in 6 rate cuts (0.25 BPS) over the next year
I think it’s more - still Long ZQ
This was my $NVDA video back in May 2025 when the price was between 100-120
My thesis and numbers and targets explained, we do this every time - join the substack
instagram.com/reel/DJh2VnpOm…
We’re not in a hurry
Policy stance is restrictive enough
The labor market is still strong
Inflation has cooled but still elevated above our target of 2%
We’ll monitor data and make a decision based on indicators
No changes to the SEP
Just take the day off tomorrow
Patience
ES hit 23x forward PE today combined with another lows on DXY, soaring yields, no IV
Boring summer or something brewing? We’ll find out but positioned for it
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