Into The Macroverse @ITC_Macro
Thanks for jumping into the macroverse! Joined January 2024-
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Hourly wages year over year Actual: 3.7% Median Forecast: 3.8% Previous: 3.9%
U.S. hourly wages Period: Aug. Actual: 0.3% Median Forecast: 0.3% Previous: 0.3%
Unemployment rate now at 4.3%
August Nonfarm Payrolls Actual: 22k Estimated: 75k Prior: 79k
U.S. trade deficit Period: July Actual: -$78.3B Median Forecast: -$77.9B Previous: -$59.1B
U.S. productivity (revision) Period: Q2 Actual: 3.3% Median Forecast: 2.8% Previous: 2.4%
ADP employment Period: Aug. Actual: 54,000 Median Forecast: 75,000 Previous: 106,000
Initial Claims Actual: 237k Estimated: 230k Prior: 229k
Factory orders Period: July Actual: -1.3% Median Forecast: -1.3% Previous: -4.8%
Job Openings Actual: 7.181M Estimated: 7.4M Prior: 7.437M
The number of job openings per unemployed worker (a metric that Powell references a lot) just fell below 1. This means there are now fewer job openings than there are people who are looking for a job. This will almost certainly lock in the rate cut for September.
Construction spending Period: July Actual: -0.1% Median Forecast: 0.0% Previous: -0.4%
ISM manufacturing Period: Aug. Actual: 48.7% Median Forecast: 48.5% Previous: 48.0%
S&P final U.S. manufacturing PMI Period: Aug. Actual: 53.0 Median Forecast: 53.3 Previous: 53.3
Consumer sentiment (final) Period: Aug. Actual: 58.2 Median Forecast: 58.6 Previous: 61.7
Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) Period: Aug. Actual: 41.5 Median Forecast: 47.3 Previous: 47.1
Advanced wholesale inventories Period: July Actual: 0.2% Previous: 0.1%
Advanced retail inventories Period: July Actual: 0.2% Previous: 0.2%
Advanced U.S. trade balance in goods Period: July Actual: $103.6B Previous: -$84.90B
Core PCE (year-over-year) Actual: 2.9% Median Forecast: 2.9% Previous: 2.8%
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