Our most recent preprint is out & submitted. “Estimates of COVID-19 deaths in Mainland China after abandoning zero COVID policy” medrxiv.org/cgi/content/sh… As always, criticism & comments are most welcome.
@MLevitt_NP2013 Interesting. -Preexisting immunity might be more significant. -"Zero Covid" policy is overrated. In a ~1450 million population, you expect a MAXIMUM amount of ~812K/987K deaths. As written in the discussion, More than 10 million people die in China annually, with or without COVID
@RanIsraeli @MLevitt_NP2013 Would be nice to know if elderly in China are usually placed in care homes. E.g. in the yrs 2020 + 2021, there were 148K all-cause deaths in Switzerland, of which 97K were in over 80s. Of these, ∼8800 died of/with covid. But 40% of these died among a care home pop. of just 154K.
@IndigoMirror @RanIsraeli @MLevitt_NP2013 there are estimated 4Mio in LTCF - long term care facilities - in that overview🤔