Investing 501 @Investing501
Retired buyside analyst with over 40 years of experience. Focused on small/microcaps. Not investment advice. Do your own work. investing501.substack.com Aubrey Joined February 2013-
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$DPZ Up 5% on earnings. There 31 EPS estimates and were 19 analysts on the call. Company gives 5-year sales are operating earnings guidance. Do buyside investors really need 31 analysts to chime in?
$BYD Instead of just buuying stock on autopilot, maybe you should consider being opportunistic with your purchases?
$CMG When will government officials understand that manditory wages increases = manditory price inflation?
$NROM trading 250K shares today and someone taking offer at $0.50 per share.
$RCL Not all companies that had to lever up during Covid are getting weaker because of higher interest rates.
$NDLS Headlands now up to 7.7% 4 firms that have filed 13Ds now own 37% of company and a year ago company thought it would generate $50M in EBITDA. CEO says turnaround of menu will take at least 9 months.
$PEP We all know why WS analysts exist (drum up banking business) but do buyside investors really need 22 EPS estimates on $PEP that exactly match company guidance? WS analysts jobs feel like the guy in a caboose on a train in '90s. #deadmanwalking
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25K Followers 219 Following Event-driven trades and special situation investments. All my picks are posted on https://t.co/YyZdX4ZhPY. Tracking portfolio: +640% since 2017.@Investing501 Meanwhile over at US centric Boyd $BYD
@Investing501 @MikeUmbro Interestingly, here in CA we have forward looking ratemaking which reduces the risk of stranded spending/assets on part of utilities
@Investing501 I had no idea $BUKS hit .92 today.
Stars beat Blues 2-1 in shootout after clinching No. 1 seed in Western Conference playoffs apnews.com/article/stars-…
@thegr8observer1 @Investing501 On March 15, 2024, the temporary restraining order expired and the court denied Focused Compounding’s request for a preliminary injunction. Focused Compounding’s complaint remains pending. The Company’s response is due on April 23, 2024.
@Investing501 @MoS_Investing I think it’s very cheap and Didn’t over pay and issued stock at 60 and 80 and now buying back
@Investing501 @Adam_Wyden “when the facts change, i change my mind. what do you do?”
@Investing501 @Mhansensdca I think revenues are 365 mm and 125 ebitda assuming no comp growth and no m/a. 9 clubs and 3 bombshells coming online and doesn’t include casinos… pretty assymetric. $rick
@Investing501 @Adam_Wyden The CEO has gotten a lot of things right & Adam has been a huge help. But instituting a goal of 15% FCF growth each & every year lends itself to commitment bias & inevitably wasteful capital allocation such as with many restaurants. CEO needs to just say no to projections.
@Investing501 Happens all the time.
@unusual_whales Well kinda - they traded $3.5 in cash and the new owner assumes the debt.
@unusual_whales Every post fails to mention the new owner assumes the debt on it, which is quite high.
@Investing501 Definitely. A lot of round trips (up 2, 3, 4x and down to 0% again) in microcap land. Microcaps aren’t meant to be coffee canned, that’s for sure.
The longer I invest in microcaps, the more I learn that in most cases, if a stock goes up 10, 20, 30%+ before you decide to take a position, it will come back down to the price you wanted it at originally. You will get your chance.
#TBT - OTD in 2015, @jamiebenn14 tallied 4 pts (3G + 1a) becoming the first @DallasStars player to win the Art Ross Trophy. As you can see, some of us in the penalty box remained calm and professional. 🤷♂️ #TexasHockey (📷 Tim Heitman)
@Investing501 It appears they have more years of optioned & owned land than they had in the past but a larger part of it is optioned so net they have more assets on their balance sheet for the same level of sales. Is this less capital intensive?
@Bonhoeffer_KDS @Investing501 As I'm sure you know NVR is the gold star and holds zero inventory - options everything. $DHI, $LEN shifting, but haven't fully commited. $PHM moreso. Typically need 5+ years of inventory. But if you expect growth is massively chews into your FCF.
@Investing501 Not the first time an ERP messed up a company. Won’t be the last.
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