Professor Jonathan Kelley @IsssSurvey

Harm from global warming? THE FACTS, PART 1: BELIEFS. Many Americans believe global warming has made their own life worse, most think has made no difference, and only a few think warming has made their life better. But the Trump administration now proposes to repeal the Obama…

Elon Musk's new political party might actually seize the balance of power after the next election! Since Republicans and Democrats are so evenly balanced, just 2 or 3 seats might do it. PRACTICAL IMPLICATION: Musk should target several now Democratic seats (not only now…

AAPOR conference today: "US Presidential Elections: Ignoring the Elephants in the Room" Point #3: Perceptions of MERITOCRACY (=good economic opportunities). Politically important! 14 national samples, 2016-2022. N= 10,000+. OLS all else equal. Presentation at the 80th Annual…

AAPOR conference today: "US Presidential Elections: Ignoring the Elephants in the Room" Point 2: For respondents "pretending to be someone else" religious belief was irrelevant |β=.05| but not for real respondents |β=.21|. 14 national samples, 2016-2022. N=4,000+ and 10,000+. OLS…

AAPOR conference today: "US Presidential Elections:Ignoring the Elephants in the Room" Point 1: 78% of respondents who answered the survey while pretending to be someone else said their parents were Democratic compared to only 39% of real respondents (N=4,000+ and 10,000+). 14…

Teens learn more, miss less if school starts later. An experiment in England’s rustbelt north boldly reset school start times for teens to 10 AM for 2 years. Student absence dropped by more than 50%. Academic performance rose by around 20% of the national benchmark. The next…

Black Americans' perceptions of their own social standing show no signs of "structural discrimination". Even Blacks from very modest families think they do well. For instance: In our society there are some social groups which are higher and some which are lower. . . Where do you…

PLEASE COMMENT on our new project: Religion, redistribution and de Tocqueville's "depraved taste for equality" in the US, UK, and India. 1. PURPOSE. Discover the effects of denominational differences (Catholic, Protestant, Atheist, Hindu, Muslim) and differences in belief…

Income inequality is no bad thing. Nor a good thing. SEE Kelley and Evans 2017 "Societal Income Inequality and Individual Subjective Well-Being: Results from 68 Societies and Over 200,000 Individuals, 1981-2008" Social Science Research 62(1):1-23. dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ssre…. In the…

Tell us what you think about politics and the election in our 2024 Election survey at surveymonkey.com/r/ISSS_Family_…

To win American elections, doorknockers need to focus on legacy (parents’ party), secularism vs religiosity, and perceptions about opportunity.

If climate change further warms Mississippi from its present annual 65 Fahrenheit to Florida’s extreme 72F – a bigger change than the UN fears for the next century – that likely is NO HARM for Mississippi, slightly better winters (+6 points) balancing worse summers (-3). National…

If climate change warms North Carolina from its present annual average of 60 Fahrenheit to Arizona's toasty 68F – a bigger change than the UN fears for the next century – that is NO HARM for North Carolina, better winters (+14 points) balancing worse summers (-12). National…

If climate change warms Virginia from its present annual average of 56 Fahrenheit (~average US) to Mississippi's warm 65F – a bigger change than the UN fears for the next century – that is GOOD for Virginia, better winters (+15 points) outweighing worse summers (-3). National…

If climate change warms Pennsylvania from its present cool annual average of 51 Fahrenheit to North Carolina's comfortable 60F – a bigger change than the UN fears – that would actually be GOOD for Pennsylvania, better winters (+16 points) with equally nice summers. National…

If #climate change warms #Michigan from its present cold annual average of 47 Fahrenheit to #Virginia's comfortable 56F – a bigger change than the UN fears – that would actually be GOOD for Michigan, better winters (+22 points) outweighing worse summers (-11). National survey…

If climate change warms Minnesota from its present frigid annual average of 43 Fahrenheit to Pennsylvania's 51F – far more than the UN's fears for the next century – that would actually be GOOD for Minnesota residents. Better winters (+18 points) outweigh worse summers (-2)…

"Catastrophic" global warming of 3.1C (~6F) may come as the UN warns. But this would likely be a GOOD THING, American's climate satisfaction over the whole year RISING +8 points (out of 100) in the north with Minnesota's climate becoming as nice as Pennsylvania's is now (#1 in…

Many respondents (~10% to 30%) spontaneously pretend to be someone else instead of giving their own true views. These ‘recreational’ role-players create serious biases for multivariate analyses. Data: USA 2016-2020, N=17000+ They are not dissembling for financial gain and…

The myth that government provision of of free university education ends up being a subsidy for the upper and upper middle classes, the bill for which ends up being paid by the poorest, is NOT TRUE—as has been known for generations and in many nations! For example Senator Macklin…