Jack Hazell @JackHazell62587
Having a blast. Better days are always ahead! Joined July 2023-
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personally if I were running the Biden campaign I would open up a 6pt polling lead as soon as possible
At 0C it's cold outside. At 100C, you're dead. Fahrenheit is a better system of temperature for measuring human comfort. Celsius gives us a much shorter range for that.
At 0C it's cold outside. At 100C, you're dead. Fahrenheit is a better system of temperature for measuring human comfort. Celsius gives us a much shorter range for that.
Not that there ever was an excuse, but now there are zero left for Mike and the House GOP You’re being given a completely historically unprecedented backstop to hold a vote on the security aid bill. If you refuse to take this, you are unconditionally the authors of any UA defeat
Here's a chart showing funds raised from small donors by the general election nominees of both parties, 2004-2020. Totals combine funds raised during the primary and the general election. As you can see, Trump badly needs small donors to stay competitive in the 2024 money race
My favorite part of economics discourse is these are the definitions for data releases: 0.1% higher than expected = hotter 0.1% lower than expected = cooler in most things 0.1% is a rounding error in economics it's either the greatest thing ever or the end of the world
OJ Simpson trial really gave us one of the funniest scenes on existence
Follow and repost to win a set of "Shinovi Master Senran Kagura: NEW LINK 1/4 Hikage: Dark Sexy Nurse Ver. & Sexy Nurse Ver." with special bonuses, currently available for pre-order! ✅ How to Enter Follow @hobbystock_en & RP ✅ Entry Period 4/25 12:00 (JST) #閃乱カグラ #シノマス
I am getting like 5-6 Trump fundraising texts per day since last week despite never donating to a GOP candidate or cause. What's the deal here?
I don’t understand how a modern presidential candidate can be this broke
I don’t understand how a modern presidential candidate can be this broke
I guess I’m failing to j see stand the strategy here. If the “draw” of donating to the RNC is they will give the money to Trump first, don’t the people giving these donations understand that they could just… uhhhh donate directly to the Trump campaign? Max limits are max limits
I guess I’m failing to j see stand the strategy here. If the “draw” of donating to the RNC is they will give the money to Trump first, don’t the people giving these donations understand that they could just… uhhhh donate directly to the Trump campaign? Max limits are max limits
Sure it will. People said this well before Taylor Swift. It's just much rarer now.
Sure it will. People said this well before Taylor Swift. It's just much rarer now.
🎐Azur Lane "The Ninja Scrolls: Azur Flash" Animation PV🎐 The new Collab event, The Ninja Scrolls: Azur Flash, is live now. Race across the seas with the ninja girls, Commander! HD version: youtu.be/bv2Q9XZTodk #AzurLane #Yostar #SenranKagura
🎐The Ninja Scrolls: Azur Flash🎐 New Collab event, The Ninja Scrolls: Azur Flash, will begin on November 23rd. This event will introduce new characters such as Asuka and many others. Stay Tuned! #AzurLane #Yostar #SenranKagura
pixivFANBOXで紫ズリ(表情差分＋射精差分)を公開しました！ horosuke.fanbox.cc/posts/7013399?…
🌴Sunset Witch🌴 Eek! What's this?! A fish hook's caught on to me... Please stop reeling it in, or my swimsuit will untie itself! Fubuki is changing into her new attire. She will grace your dock in the near future, Commander. #AzurLane #Yostar #SenranKagura
🌴Blue Sky Lagoon🌴 Phew... Nothing beats a cold shower. Commander, do you want to join in? Yūyaki is changing into her new attire. She will grace your dock in the near future, Commander. #AzurLane #Yostar #SenranKagura
I, Robert @BlueCheese608
889 Followers 2K Following Gen X w/ Millennial vibes, ex-Bernie, center-left. YIMBY. Like Wisco & Dem politics. Hopefully never too serious.
Joanna Emma👗👠�.. @JoannaCindy564
208 Followers 564 Following "Empowering women to be their best selves. Advocate for equality, diversity, and inclusion. Lover of fashion, beauty, and all things fabulous.
Richard Van Tuyl, jr @TuylJr605
134 Followers 1K Following 59yrs Richard Van Tuyl who works for a construction company in the Kansas City as won a $1000,000 and giving back to the society by paying credit card debts
Tammy Gordy @GordyTammy04
9 Followers 247 Following Tammy Gordy always had a feeling she was going to win big playing the Powerball.He did with a $2 million winning ticket he purchased at Spooner Marathon,🇺🇸
Rob Maser @Rob10maser
116 Followers 3K Following Father of amazing kids winner of the 3rd largest powerball jackpot lottery $2 million giving to the society by paying credit card debts and helping our old vets
Stu @StuShoes18
1K Followers 4K Following 30-something in CA with a love for family, friends, sports, politics, a good book, a good drink, live music and the outdoors
Lasites @Lasites194123
18 Followers 570 Following
Ethan C7 @ECaliberSeven
11K Followers 73 Following 23 | Elections Nerd | Moderate Democrat | Part Time Optimist | Full Time Skeptic
Robert Moses @the_powerbroker
771 Followers 0 Following “He knew you could change the legislation. You can’t change a bridge after it’s up”
HOBBY STOCK ENGLISH @hobbystock_en
4K Followers 7 Following This is the official HOBBY STOCK English account! Feel free to follow us! https://t.co/9CZKsPv0LS
Politics_Follower @PoliticsFollow6
181 Followers 236 Following Have an interest in politics and many other things...
World's Biggest Cross.. @schlagteslinks
4K Followers 526 Following Mr. Crosstab Hater. The Washington top-two primary is a political leading indicator. I coined 'agedep' but it's not real. Occasional political mapmaker. He/him.
Reuben Rodriguez @ReubenR80027912
11K Followers 776 Following
Miles, the Scrivener @HackingMile
221 Followers 546 Following A Vonnegut punch for your Atlas shrug. Localist, distributist, globalist, absurdist, humanist. Here for politics, investing, music, philosophy, et al.
I, Robert @BlueCheese608
889 Followers 2K Following Gen X w/ Millennial vibes, ex-Bernie, center-left. YIMBY. Like Wisco & Dem politics. Hopefully never too serious.
The Civil Liberal @cfthepodcast
2K Followers 769 Following Roger King, host of the Clusterfucked podcast. “A liberal host with red state guests.” How can Democrats win more in red states? Move!
Marcus @MarcusHUSA
6K Followers 275 Following “You are capable of anything because you are so bad at everything.”
Aaron Astor @AstorAaron
20K Followers 3K Following Historian of the 19th Century U.S. and Professor at Maryville College. Author of Rebels on the Border and Civil War along Tennessee's Cumberland Plateau
Stu @StuShoes18
1K Followers 4K Following 30-something in CA with a love for family, friends, sports, politics, a good book, a good drink, live music and the outdoors
Yesh Ginsburg @yesh222
3K Followers 850 Following Loves sports, especially college. Shares random thoughts that come to mind. Treat everyone as if they're discussing in good faith unless they prove otherwise.
Stephen Leuchtman �.. @leuchtman
2K Followers 2K Following Single dad, writer, political junkie, Director of polling PRG. Tweets are my own. 8w7 ENFP. Since pronouns pissed people off Enneagram and Myer Briggs will too
Chris Christie @GovChristie
895K Followers 900 Following Husband, proud father, former Gov and U.S. Attorney, Springsteen fan. Not stopping telling the truth. https://t.co/lgrYcbAR7k@JackHazell62587 @PoliticsFollow6 here's a hint (it isn't going away from Biden) here's a quick but good explanation bleedingheartland.com/2023/11/26/are…
A new iteration of the "it's actually ephebophilia, not pedophilia" talking point just dropped
People who respond to some new Trump controversy with "Doesn't matter, his base will never abandon him" piss me off. This might be news to them, but Trump lost in 2020. The base is not enough! To win in 2024 he needs to flip Biden 2020 voters or hope they stay home/vote 3rd party
@JackHazell62587 Just in general. The penetration of even the internet's most viral videos is shockingly low - if you count the people that scrolled past it it's higher, but we are bombarded with inputs from all directions all day, attention is fleeting.
Lyndsay gets it. Listen to her, she’s right
People tweeting how Caitlin Clark, Angel Reese, ect. are making all this money now, surpassing what longtime WNBA vets have made/are making — um, that's how it works when leagues grow/become more popular? Look at what younger NBA players are signing for now. NFL. MLB. ETC. Why…
This is emblematic of how most reporters just do not understand polling, how it works, what it means, etc. Polls are a snapshot in time. What they "mean" depends on the execution of the poll, etc. To ascribe "momentum" and "has faded" is basically malpractice.
Recent momentum for Biden has faded in swing states, according to new poll by @Bloomberg and @MorningConsult. Trump leads in NC (+10), Nev. (+8), Ariz. (+7), Ga. (+6), Wisc. (+4) and Pa. (+1). Biden edges Trump in only one swing state, Mich. (+2). pro-assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/202…
“Every poll that’s good for trump is good for trump and every poll that is bad for trump is also good for trump and there are never any warning signs or problems ever” is how you set yourself up for a sad day or into another 4 year spiral of “election fraud!!!” cries.
@JackHazell62587 No. He’s facially guilty. He will be convicted.
@JackHazell62587 Oh, I'd much rather the J6 trial hadnt been stalled with frivolous absolute immunity claims, or the classified docs wasn't being managed by an utterly incompetent or utterly corrupt judge, but... don't do the crime if you don't want to be charged.
This pattern has repeated itself so many times in batches of swing state polls that it's honestly starting to get comical. Also, the crosstabs are quite clearly not "canceling" each other out.
And if Rod knows anything, he knows fraud.
The fraudulent NY fraud trial against Trump begins tomorrow. No way Trump gets a fair trial before a Dem judge whose daughter is a Dem fundraiser. Nor will he get a jury of his peers. It will be a jury made up of Dems who hate Trump. Political prosecutions destroying democracy.
Rod Blagojevich really is the perfect Trump Democrat.
The fraudulent NY fraud trial against Trump begins tomorrow. No way Trump gets a fair trial before a Dem judge whose daughter is a Dem fundraiser. Nor will he get a jury of his peers. It will be a jury made up of Dems who hate Trump. Political prosecutions destroying democracy.
Since NYT/Siena numbers for white voters have remained basically unchanged from their first national poll of the 2024 cycle (from Sept 2022), it stands to reason that basically any improvement for Biden (or Trump!) in the topline will be driven by nonwhite voters
NYT poll crosstabs for Black/Hispanic voters showing some return to December # s Dec Black: Biden 82%, Trump 13% Hispanic: Biden 47%, Trump 35% Feb Black: Biden 71%, Trump 20% Hispanic: Biden 43%, Trump 45% April Black: Biden 76%, Trump 16% Hispanic: Biden 52%, Trump 39%
personally if I were running the Biden campaign I would open up a 6pt polling lead as soon as possible
The fear in 2021-22 was that the spike in homicides would continue to increase, like when murders jumped in mid-1960s, & stayed elevated until the 1990s. But that didn't happen. It really was a short-term spike. (Some cities like Memphis are still seeing murder go up though).
Homicides are plummeting. In all 10 cities with the most 2023 homicides—for which we have data—homicides are falling. The pandemic crime wave is crashing hard. If these percentage decline numbers were percentage growth numbers, it would be the lede of every cable news show—>
@JackHazell62587 I don’t think he is leading in the polling averages anymore. It’s a tight race. But the narrative always was Biden’s numbers will improve when people start paying attention and Trump officially becomes the nominee. That’s exactly what is happening.
@JackHazell62587 @cfthepodcast 1. The better polling does not show him leading in swing states. 2. A bunch of people who WILL be Biden voters don't know it yet. We're already in the mode of how bad a 2nd Trump term will be. A whole bunch of people still aren't aware of it yet.
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