As a new variant many issues to resolve amid uncertainty. Having great public health & science people, teams, infrastructure & close links into informed policy makers committed to sharing evidence is crucial. Fortunately all that is true in South Africa.They need all our support
Many things to learn & watch for - a non-exhaustive list 1/ The epidemiology (is transmission increasing, is it’s geographic footprint widening, are there secondary cases distant from the original epicentre, is the infectious period the same, infectiousness, viral load etc)
2/ Clinical (Is the clinical syndrome changing, illness severity, demographic, illness/hospitalised in those previously infected or vaccinated, response to therapy, time in hospital, need for critical care etc)
3/ Laboratory (Are the biological characteristics of the variant different, affinity for receptor, different receptors, growth rate in lab, neutralisation with immune sera, T and B cell epitopes, structural biology changes etc)
4/ Interventions (do existing public health measures still work, do existing vaccines continue to prevent infection/illness/severity, development & capacity to manufacture & distribute new vaccines if needed, do tests still diagnose, do existing treatments work etc)
5/ Communications (Clear, trusted, considered, transparent, calm). Undertake what public health, clinical & lab work that needs to be done, calmly, painstakingly and transparently.
6/ Pending results use existing classic public health & clinical measures that we know work - Test,Reduce & stop chains transmission,PPE, O2,Equitable access Treatments.Vaccination access globally to protect people getting ill & help reduce transmission. Enlightened self interest
7/ New variants are inevitable the virus remains highly plastic still evolving & will continue to do so. New variants are not a reason to stop doing what we know works.
@JeremyFarrar Someone needs to enlighten the self-interest in 10 Downing Street...