Sk @Jolly2Joy

I think we’re in the late stage of the dot-com equivalent cycle. Max extraction already happened. Most retail has left. Exchanges are now listing TradFi indices and commodities instead of new tokens. But if you think back to dot-com, some infrastructure survived — and became everything. I think crypto will be the same. We don’t have many, but we do have real products, real founders, real builders. And institutional rails are being laid quietly in the background. Easy 100x in 2 months? Gone. But is the opportunity for crypto to still produce 100x returns gone? No. Personally, I think there are 2 sectors where real opportunity still exists --------------------------------------------- 1. Prediction markets We’re in a gambling supercycle. This isn’t just “markets are boring so people want to gamble.” That’s part of it, but we’re now in a narrative-driven world — even in TradFi and commodities. Betting participation in the US jumped from 25% → 30% in a year. Driven by Gen Z (34%) and Millennials (42%). These are the most narrative-sensitive cohorts. They can’t outwork inflation. AI is eating jobs. Real estate is out of reach. So they bet on outcomes. Betting = investing is getting bigger, not smaller. --------------------------------------------- 2. Agent infrastructure (Agent commerce) With tools like Claude and OpenClaw, a solo founder or small team can now build a unicorn faster than ever. Production cost collapsed. Within 3 years, most people will have their own AI agents. The real opportunity is the infra that connects those agents to users or Agent to Agent. That’s where value accrues. Crypto is the perfect funding layer for this. ICOs might come back in a new form. Bear markets are where edges are built — airdrops, research, networking, early conviction. Easy money is gone. But if you have edge and a long-term mindset, the next 100x is still there — just over years, not months.

Ignas @DefiIgnas

7 months ago

Crypto easy money era has ended. Historically, most easy money periods last 3-7 years: - California Gold Rush lasted 7 years. - Tulip mania lasted 3 - The dot-com bubble about 5 years before the Nasdaq dumped by 78% - Japan's bubble was 6 years, then Nikkei took 34 years to

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Peter Girnus 🦅 @gothburz

7 months ago

I bought Rivian stock on IPO day. November 10, 2021. $172 a share. I bought 58 shares. That was $9,976. I remember the exact number because my girlfriend asked what I spent ten thousand dollars on and I said "the future of transportation." She said "you drive a 2017 Civic." I said "exactly." $1,000 invested at IPO is now worth $149.06. I have that number memorized. I check it before coffee. I check it after coffee. I check it during meetings where I'm supposed to be listening. The number changes by pennies. The pennies matter to me now. The thesis was simple. Rivian was the next Tesla. They had the Amazon delivery vans. They had the adventure truck. They had the factory in Normal, Illinois. I told people the factory was in a town called Normal. I thought that was meaningful. A sign. The future of transportation, built in a place called Normal. The factory produced 24,337 vehicles in its first full year. Tesla produced 1.8 million. I called that "room to grow." I have been through six theses on Rivian. Thesis one: they're the next Tesla. (Stock dropped 40%.) Thesis two: the Amazon vans are the real play. (Amazon cut the order.) Thesis three: the R2 platform will be the mass-market breakthrough. (Delayed 18 months.) Thesis four: the Georgia factory changes everything. (Paused indefinitely.) Thesis five: Volkswagen's $5 billion investment validates the technology. (Stock kept falling.) Thesis six: Uber robotaxis. This is the pivot. Every time the stock drops, I find the new thesis. I don't look for it. It finds me. I open Reddit. I open the Rivian subreddit. Someone has written a post titled "Why this is actually bullish." It has 400 upvotes. I read it. I agree with it. I was going to agree with it before I read it. The agreement is the point. The DD is the prayer. My cost basis is $172. The stock is $14.06. I am down 91.8%. I could have bought a used Rivian R1T with the money I've lost on Rivian stock. I have not done the math on this. I'm doing it now. Yes. I could have bought one. A 2022 with 30,000 miles. I would have the truck AND the remaining money. I drive a 2017 Civic. My coworker Dave bought index funds. Dave is up 34% over the same period. Dave brings a sad lunch to work every day. Turkey sandwich. Same sandwich. Dave will retire at 65 with a comfortable nest egg and a lifetime of turkey sandwiches and he will never know what it felt like to be early. I am early. I have been early for four and a half years. At some point early and wrong have the same return on investment. But they feel different. Wrong feels like a mistake. Early feels like a strategy. I feel like a strategy. The Uber partnership was announced Tuesday. I texted three people. One was my brother. One was a guy from the Rivian subreddit whose real name I don't know. One was my girlfriend. My ex-girlfriend. She stopped asking about Rivian in 2023. She stopped asking about anything in 2024. The stock jumped 10%. It gave half back the same day. But for eleven minutes I was only down 81% instead of 85%. I called that momentum. I took a screenshot. I still have the screenshot. Rivian will build robotaxis for Uber. Rivian has not built a profitable vehicle for anyone. Rivian lost $38,784 on every vehicle it delivered last year. That's not my number. That's their 10-K. But I don't think about it that way. I think about it as investment in scale. Scale means you lose money faster until you don't. Uber needs thousands of autonomous vehicles. Rivian needs to not go bankrupt before 2027. These are complementary needs. That's a partnership. That's synergy. That's the pivot. Dave asked me yesterday how much I'm down. I said "I'm long-term." He said "it's been four years." I said "Tesla was down 80% once." He said "Tesla was also profitable once." Dave went back to his sandwich. Dave doesn't understand pivots. I bought more shares this morning. This is the pivot.