KI Insights @KI_Insight

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💸 French billionaire Xavier Niel plans to buy Ukrainian telecom companies @lifecellDigital and Datagroup-Volia, in a deal worth $1.5 bn. This marks the 1-st major investment in 🇺🇦 by a new market player during the full-scale war and 1 of the biggest Western investments in the…

🛍 The Inditex Group, which includes brands such as Zara and Bershka, resumed operations in Ukraine after leaving due to the full-scale invasion. While several companies have resumed operations, IKEA is still assessing the situation.

🌐 The inaugural Global Peace Summit, expecting participation from 80+ countries, is set for June 15-16 in Switzerland. Turkey proposed a peace plan, suggesting a conflict freeze, prisoner exchange, Ukraine's EU entry with Russia's consent & Ukraine's neutrality until 2040.…

A new political spectrum is emerging in Ukraine: soldiers and veterans VS draft dodgers. Due to the removal of the demobilization clause, the bill has upset both sides as it leaves service terms indefinite.

…including Poroshenko, Razumkov & Tymoshenko. The parties Batkivshchyna, European Solidarity, and the pro-Razumkov wing of Sluha Narodu, did not vote for the bill on mobilization. We observe hostile rhetoric regarding the new law.

📄 President Zelensky signed a controversial mobilization bill. The review for the 2-nd reading took 4 months due to a crisis in the Rada and avoidance of unpopular measures. Previously proposed demobilization was removed at the request of the General Staff. 🔍 We believe the…

🛡 Iran's drone & missile attack on Israel was thwarted by the US, UK, France & Jordan. Ukrainians express disappointment at partners' double standards. Meanwhile, Poland plans to join the European Sky Shield Initiative, with Germany offering another Patriot battery to 🇺🇦

✉️ Our weekly digest is out! This week’s highlights: Iran's attack on Israel & risks for Ukraine, the controversial mobilization bill, Global Peace Summit, the return of global brands to 🇺🇦 & the 1-st large foreign investment to 🇺🇦 since the full-scale invasion 🧵

By the way, check out the video interview youtube.com/watch?v=GbbPEr… , or article kyivindependent.com/sikorski-ukrai… And follow @KI_Insight - for more IR and 🇺🇦policy analysis!

Sikorski’s view is that the access Ukraine was granted back in mid-2022 was an act of solidarity due to 🇷🇺’s blockade of 🇺🇦ports. Because of this, Ukraine de facto entered the EU (at least the single market) without going through the (painful) bureaucratic process

🇺🇦has now won the Battle of the Western Black Sea. Seaborne transport is back, almost at pre-war levels (see graph h/t Dragon Capital) – so the extraordinary arrangement is no longer essential. Hence, time to get back to proper process

From Poland’s perspective, there are 2 issues. 1 – Ukraine does not follow EU rules on fertilizer etc., so competition is unfair and 2 – too much grain ended up being sold in Poland vs. across the EU (hence the distinction between transit and sales)

Sidenote: this is something Ukraine should expect to get worse before it gets better. Agriculture is immensely political in the EU (arguably too much so), and it may turn out that political/ security partnerships end where agriculture starts (see France)

For Ukraine, the issue is understandably much more symbolic. The country is fighting for survival, any additional hurdles feel like an act of betrayal. Also something agribusiness point to regularly: the EU market is relatively small for Ukraine (so what’s the big deal?!)

There’s definitely a political comms problem here. Poland is taking facts and process, Ukraine is talking values and emotions. But its also true that finding exceptions and workarounds is quintessentially UA politics. That’s just not how the EU (usually) works.

Sidenote 2: Poland still needs a way better media strategy within Ukraine. See some earlier @KI_Insight analysis – although Poland is a topic of wide conversation, political leaders struggle to make their voices heard

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Reflections: 1) While Sikorski is widely seen as a Russia hawk and Atlanticist (see our Oct 2022 conversation pod.link/1643726015/epi…), it struck me how much emphasis he put on making EU machinery work, particularly via the Weimar triangle (Poland-Germany-France).

That’s a big shift (not surprising, being in power vs. opposition is different), but it is revealing about how Poland plans to play internationally. You can also see Tusk’s influence – as ex-EU president, he if anyone knows the EU is a mighty beast is you work it the right way

The risk is a disconnect in terms of urgency. Sikorski spoke of artillery production ramping up by end of year, and of going one-by-one shutting down Russian disinfo-ops. “Democracies are always slow to wake up” was a key message…