Marcus Ellison @KeyundriaK

AI isn’t breaking. The valuation math is. The 30Y Treasury hit 5.704% today — a fresh 24-year high — while Brent pushed back above $100 and tech came under pressure. That doesn’t kill the AI thesis. It raises the bar. When capital gets this expensive, revenue growth alone is worthless. I want to know who can turn massive AI capex into durable FCF and high returns on capital. That’s where this trade gets interesting. The next AI winner won’t be whoever spends the most. It’ll be whoever earns the most on what they spend.#AI #Markets #Treasuries #Investing

The Fed hasn’t even spoken yet and the bond market is already doing the tightening. The 30Y Treasury hit 5.704% today — a fresh 24-year high — while Brent pushed back above $100. That’s the setup people are underestimating. Higher energy → more inflation pressure. Higher long-end yields → higher cost of capital. Higher cost of capital → less room for valuation mistakes. AI can still win here. But “growth” isn’t enough anymore. The companies that survive this tape will be the ones turning AI demand into real FCF and ROIC. The Fed may not need to tighten. The market is doing it for them.

Wall Street just got a reminder that AI doesn’t trade in a vacuum. Brent is back above $100. The 30Y Treasury just touched a fresh 24-year high around 5.70%. Stock futures are lower after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at records yesterday. And now everyone’s waiting on the Fed minutes at 2 p.m. ET. Here’s what matters: AI earnings can absolutely keep carrying this market. But they now have to outrun a rising cost of capital AND a fresh inflation shock from energy. That’s a much higher bar. The market doesn’t need another AI story. It needs cash flows strong enough to beat the math.

@RoundtableSpace Interesting build. The real test is whether it can separate an actual signal from a narrative that just happens to be getting louder.

The market isn’t ignoring 5%+ yields. It’s making a much bigger bet: that earnings will be strong enough to make them irrelevant. Nasdaq at a record. AI names still leading. Q3 earnings around the corner. At this point, “good” numbers won’t be enough. When multiples are this rich and the risk-free rate is this high, you need companies to beat, raise, and prove the AI capex cycle is actually turning into earnings power. That’s what I think a lot of people are missing. The next move isn’t about whether AI is real. We already know it is. It’s about whether the earnings can catch up to what the market has already priced in. That bar just got a lot higher.

Everyone keeps waiting for 5%+ yields to kill the AI trade. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq closed at a record and NVDA hit another all-time high. That’s not something I’d brush off. The easy take is “rates are too high, tech has to break.” I think that misses the real fight. Rates matter. A lot. But as long as earnings growth keeps outrunning the damage from a higher discount rate, the strongest AI names can keep making expensive look surprisingly durable. The part I’m watching now isn’t the 10-year by itself. It’s whether earnings can keep clearing a bar that’s already extremely high. If they can, a lot of people waiting for the “obvious” AI correction are going to stay frustrated. If they can’t, 5%+ yields will expose the weak spots fast. That’s the setup. Higher rates. Higher expectations. Almost no room for mediocre execution.

I can see why Schneider wants PTC. The harder question is whether it can earn a good return on what it’s paying. PTC adds another piece to Schneider’s industrial software stack and gives it more ways to connect design, automation and operations across the same customer base. That strategic fit is pretty clear. But at $22.6B, fit isn’t enough. Schneider expects €800M of revenue synergies and €250M of cost synergies by year five, with ROIC above its cost of capital. That’s the number I’d keep coming back to. The deal creates value if those synergies turn into attractive incremental returns. If they don’t, Schneider bought a good asset at a price that did the value creation upfront.

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