Jackson @LLYJackson8
be water Joined January 2026-
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交互的远期目标：个人贾维斯。像钢铁侠的电影里的贾维斯一样，语音、视觉、空间还能和你一起沉浸式实时协作互动。前提一：多模态越来越强，目前已经看到多模态有规模定律出现。前提二：数据采集，高速通信。前提三：模型能力足够强，速度足够快。前提四：可以随身携带的目前主流以外的屏幕。
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需要时间，等个人助理普及后开始创造新的行为习惯。观察最先接触的一批人，看哪些行为习惯有可能会被普及。
下一个涌现会不会是群体智能的涌现？Agent 蜂群出现规模效应，比神经元更抽象一个层次。前提：足够算力，Agent 高速通信，沙箱等。
低成本获得能力 → 更多人尝试 → 更多新经验产生 → 经验得到验证和传播 → 更多人获得能力。如果这个循环能够持续成立，带来的就不只是 AI 用户数量增加，而可能是整个人类社会探索和学习速度的提高。从而AI 能不能让更多人创造新的经验，而不只是传播旧经验？也就是探索目前极其前沿的领域。
阶段一：从知识分发，转向知识理解 阶段二：从知识理解，转向现实验证 阶段三：从验证能力，转向发现目标
人类过去传播知识的一个基本困难是：专家能够完成某件事，不代表他能够完整解释自己为什么能完成；即使能够解释，也不代表另一个人听完就能够做到。 这中间至少存在两次转化：专家的经验 → 可以表达和传播的知识 → 学习者真正具备的能力。 而 AI 正在同时影响这两次转化。
卖 skill，卖工作流，卖数据就是 AI 时代的经验复制传播的交易行为。经验传播速度更加快，你只需要让 AI 去学习，不占用人有限的认知带宽长时间学习就可以为你所用。
内容丰富的领域下一个应该会是游戏，游戏是内容类制作更复杂的，但体验更丰富，更贴合人类自然的体验，生成成本变低，自然会爆发供给，就比如如今消费视频一样消费玩游戏。当然，这建立在人类自然会更倾向更丰富的交互体验这个假设上面。
在尊重人的自主性和现实约束的前提下，让一个人能够以更低的成本，探索更多有意义的可能性，并逐渐形成自己愿意承担的选择。AI 时代，不断关注怎样降低尝试新事物的成本。
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