MadisonVale @MadisonVamd

$BTC Looking to short directly at a key support level, particularly in an area of demand such as that around 79/76k, means entering the market precisely where buyers may return. From there, the price could react and bounce back: the potential downside is more limited, whilst an upward squeeze can quickly put those who are short in a difficult position. For this reason, the risk-reward ratio is unlikely to be in your favour. This does not mean that the support level cannot give way. It means that, when considering a short position, it would make more sense to wait for a confirmed break and perhaps a failed retest, so as to have a clear trigger and invalidation point. Anticipating the move in the midst of demand is simply a gamble:

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I think this is worth reposting for people to study. Bad news during a bull market = fuels continuation. We’ve seen wave after wave of “bad” news and events, and it lines up with what we’ve seen in every cycle $BTC before.

$BTC Yesterday we saw an excellent recovery, but now we need the most important confirmation: a retake of the grey box, which coincides with the monthly open. Only above that level would I expect a continuation towards 87–88K. Until then, the recovery remains incomplete.

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In 2014, BTC bottomed 71 days after the midterms. In 2018, BTC bottomed 39 days after the midterms. In 2022, BTC bottomed 13 days after the midterms. In 2026, the midterms are in 3 weeks. The pattern suggests that we are bottoming sooner an sooner. 71 - 39 = 32 days quicker. 39-13 = 26 days quicker. So maybe, just maybe, $BTC bottoms before the midterms. Instead of derisking afterwards, we could simply continue the uptrend.

$BTC is still holding above its 50W EMA, 50W SMA, bull market support band, and May highs. So far, buyers are in control, and as long as BTC stays above $80K, another leg up towards $90K could happen.

There’s absolutely no fucking way this doesn’t hit 100%. I’m telling you now with confidence $BTC makes a new ATH in 2027. 30% odds is insane. People are way to fucking bearish. I already calculated the math...

$ETH - Looking for a reason to cancel the squiggles drawn back in August but still holding up.

$BTC so far just a clean stair-step

$BTC The narrative into the 14th is definitely more bearish than bullish. We’ve seen two hunts of 81K. The latest came late last night during the Asian session and was bought up almost immediately after stops were taken below the lows. That makes me think we’re more likely to see a bullish reaction shortly after the 14th, carrying through the rest of the month. Another hunt of the highs toward 87-88K is possible.

We have 5B+ in visible $BTC liquidations sitting at 87K.

$BTC some local pressure as price tests 4H SMA 200 and lower BB

The ideal scenario would be for $BTC to push higher into the midterms, build a bullish narrative and sweep the highs. Then, as in previous cycles, we get a corrective move after the midterms. This time though, that correction wouldn’t lead to a new cycle low. It would establish a higher low instead. That feels like the most plausible scenario to me. If we dump into the midterms, I think we’re more likely to pump afterwards towards 95K. Nearly 2B in longs have just been liquidated, and the midterms are only 3 weeks away. In my view, the maximum pain scenario would be a move back up into the midterms, after one side of the narrative has already been wrecked, followed by a reversal that catches the other side before the market derisks again. The midterms will likely be framed as either a bearish or bullish catalyst. But given the current price action, sentiment, and the fact that one side has already been taken out, it looks like shorts are more exposed than longs right now. 3/4 midterms were followed by bearish price action one to two months later. Based on that historical sample, the odds are 75%. I’m all for the market going up, but I trade the statistics and data, not just the outcome I want. So i think we only get the derisking after, not before the midterms. Just some food for thought on the current price action. I’m still holding the 10x long, along with the longs I posted at 62.6K and 76.4K. All positions remain open at full size.

$BTC trying to reclaim lost support and resume weekly uptrend

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Seems like this move did exactly what it needed to do. Take out a bunch of low leverage $BTC longs. Now it’s just shorts between 86–88K.

$BTC 4H ascending and inverted scallop with 83.5k trigger

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