There is a 53-47 Republican advantage in the Senate.
To nuke the filibuster, Republicans can only afford two defections on the vote.
~10 Republicans have indicated that they would defect.
Their posture, if not modified, effectively ensures a future Democrat supermajority.
Thom Tillis (R-NC): "There's nothing that could move me on the filibuster."
James Lankford (R-OK): "We should not get rid of the filibuster."
John Curtis (R-UT): "I'm a firm no on eliminating it."
Lisa Murkowski (R-AK): "I'm not interested in eliminating the filibuster."
John Kennedy (R-LA): "It's important to have a filibuster."
Sen. John Barrasso (R-WY): "No, that's not going to be the case. There aren't the Republicans that would want to support it."
Rick Scott (R-FL): "I don’t support getting rid of the filibuster."
Mitch McConnell (R-KY): "We’re not going to do that."
John Cornyn (R-TX): "It's a nonstarter."
The problem is that next time the senate flips, the left will break the filibuster immediately and pass no voter ID nationally.
After that, the senate will become supermajority left forever, like California.
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