ModelSays @ModelSays

@lorzo212 You and I both 😓 didn’t model that Kincaid would get that little yards but his target percentage has gone down.

MNF recap 🏈 Bills 37, Rams 34 (OT) ✅ Rams run game faded: Kyren 49 yds (line 69.5), Corum 19 (line 33.5)
 ✅ Kincaid 7 rec yds vs a 56.5 line
 ✅ Top 5 on our TD card all scored
 ❌ Josh Allen ran for 121 lol couldn’t have modeled that out 🤣 Card went 6-5. Week 5 projection cards: 37-27.

ModelSays @ModelSays

23 hours ago

MNF: Bills @ Rams 🏈 Projection cards are 31-22 vs the line in Week 5 🚀✅ Model's biggest gaps tonight:
 Blake Corum rush yds: model 20.0, line 33.5
 Dalton Kincaid rec yds: 32.1 vs 56.5
 Kyren Williams rush yds: 61.3 vs 69.5
 Davante Adams rec yds: 69.8 vs 60.5 The

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@EdgeAI_App Leaning real role change. It's not just targets, his snap share slid too: 72% Week 1 down to 59% last week. Target share went 21%, 29%, 12%, 7%. Model weights the recent games, line still prices the 130-yard opener. But we will see tonight 👀

MNF: Bills @ Rams 🏈 Projection cards are 31-22 vs the line in Week 5 🚀✅ Model's biggest gaps tonight:
 Blake Corum rush yds: model 20.0, line 33.5
 Dalton Kincaid rec yds: 32.1 vs 56.5
 Kyren Williams rush yds: 61.3 vs 69.5
 Davante Adams rec yds: 69.8 vs 60.5 The model's fading the Rams run game. Josh Allen 46% to find the end zone.

🔧 SNEAK PEEK: what's under the hood, and what's coming Week 5: 31-22 across every posted projection. But we always keep improving, one good week doesn’t mean consistency. What we're running:
 📊 Rushing model backtested on 3 seasons of real lines (480+ props)
 🧪 9 strategies paper-tracked every week, logged before kickoff, graded after
 🔄 Backup-QB adjustments built on 560+ past starts What's coming:
 🏥 Injury and depth-chart input, so a starter going down changes the projection
 🎲 A game simulator that prices parlays as one game, not separate legs
 ⏱️ Quarter and half projections (early testing looks strong 👀) Tonight: the model's read on Bills-Rams. 🏈

@JackOnTheBooks3 Nice job man!

🏈 WEEK 5 RECAP 31-22 across every posted projection (58.5%). 📉 Unders: 21-12 on the week (64%)
 🎯 Late TD card: 6 of 10 scored, model expected ~5
 ✅ Both slates above .500: TNF 13-7, Sunday 18-15 Biggest misses: Gibbs (151) and Parker Washington (124). Posted anyway. Still testing, still tracking. Confidence sheet coming later tonight stay tuned

ModelSays @ModelSays

2 days ago

4PM + SNF: MODEL VS LINE Every late game on one card: the biggest gaps between our projections and the line, plus anytime TD chances. Injury-checked against today's reports:
 🔄 Lamar out, Huntley starts. Built in from 560+ past backup-QB starts
 Still testing. Everything's

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4PM + SNF: MODEL VS LINE Every late game on one card: the biggest gaps between our projections and the line, plus anytime TD chances. Injury-checked against today's reports:
 🔄 Lamar out, Huntley starts. Built in from 560+ past backup-QB starts
 Still testing. Everything's tracked on paper before it becomes a pick. TNF went 13-7. Every row graded Monday, good or bad. 🤝

@CPointSports Appreciate it 🤝 Exactly. A lead back's 4th-quarter rushing chances roughly halve when his team is down 7+. But building that in now

🔧 TRANSPARENT MODEL UPDATE ✅Thursday's sheet went 13-7 against the line. But the misses taught us more than the hits. Dallas trailed all night and threw 42 times. Our projections expected the opposite. That's where Pickens (130) and Bucky (165) got away from us. Here's what's going in this week: 📈 Game script: projections that adjust for who's likely to lead, not just the spread
 🔄 Backup QB adjustments, built on 560+ past starts
 🎲 Simulations that play out the whole game, so parlays are priced as one game instead of separate legs
 ⏱️ Quarter and half projections
 🧹 Cleaner data: we found and fixed bugs in how our model reads player history Everything gets tested on past seasons first, then tracked on paper before it touches a posted pick. No black box. Wins and losses posted.

@AdamSchefter Tyler Huntley walking in to ruin the spread 🤣

@Tactipicks Bang ❗️

@Tactipicks Thanks bro!!

🏈 TNF RECAP: BUCS @ COWBOYS Tonight’s projection sheet went 13-7 against the line. 📊 Breakdown:
 ✅ Rushing yards: 4-2
✅ Rush attempts: 2-0
✅ Receiving yards: 7-5 ⚠️ Goodson and Hurst never recorded a stat. We're treating both as no action until we confirm they were active. If they played, it's 13-9. 🎯 TD odds: Javonte (58%), Pickens (33%) and Bucky (30%) all found the end zone. Lamb (45%) didn't. ❌ Biggest misses: Pickens (130) and Bucky (165). Dallas trailed all night and threw 42 times to just 13 runs. That's not the script we projected. Next up: building game script into the model so it adjusts when the favorite falls behind.

ModelSays @ModelSays

5 days ago

Bucs @ Cowboys, TNF 🏈 Model vs the line, adjusted for Jalon Daniels' 2nd start for Tampa. Biggest gaps tonight: Javonte Williams rush yds: model 50.8, line 68.5 Pickens rec yds: 49.3 vs 64.5 Sean Tucker rush yds: 24.5 vs 12.5 Where do you think the model's wrong?

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@FF_Dirtbag Haha you called it. We had the volume going to CeeDee and Pickens just ate. Got him in 2 leagues so I'm not mad. Full sheet is holding up pretty well tho

Bucs @ Cowboys, TNF 🏈 Model vs the line, adjusted for Jalon Daniels' 2nd start for Tampa. Biggest gaps tonight: Javonte Williams rush yds: model 50.8, line 68.5 Pickens rec yds: 49.3 vs 64.5 Sean Tucker rush yds: 24.5 vs 12.5 Where do you think the model's wrong?

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@FF_Dirtbag Yeah, Dak can air it out and that's the risk on this one. The model's betting the volume runs through Lamb more than Pickens. And to your point, it also has Javonte in for a tough day on the ground. We'll see tonight 🤝

Fair on CLE and MIN. But CIN and GB average 239 and 210 WR yds against everyone else and got 101 and 66 vs Tampa. Adjusted for who they played, the D still grades out well. Other piece: Dallas is an 8.5-pt fav vs a backup QB. Historically that script means more runs late, not more Pickens targets.

@FF_Dirtbag Could be. Model has him at 49 off his usage: 28, 40, 82, 75 this year with Lamb eating 31% of targets. And Tampa's D hasn't helped WRs: 106 yds a game allowed, 2nd fewest in the league.