Their books have to post a number on every game. You only have to find a few a week where you’re confident something is mispriced. At volume nobody’s smarter than the market. Their team of quants are your free research (the line already has it all). The edge is in specific injury valuations, movement and money off a key number, a half-pt one book is slow to move off of, etc, on those handful of games, not in out modeling them.
@kaienphase@verumidest Through his rating process, the threshold (is his number far enough from the market to cross a key number) and the price. Half a pt or 10 cents either way is difference between winning and losing over a season (and he won't take the worse number just to get down)
🏈 New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL IS BACK
Chicago -3 (the most important number in football), total 50.5
Two things collide tonight at Soldier Field:
New England’s run game ranks 7th in the league by EPA per play, adjusted for the defenses it’s faced.
Chicago’s run defense gives up the 8th fewest yards per game, but it has faced the fewest carries per game in the league and per carry has allowed 4.5 yards (24th).
With games in the balance, CHI gives up 6 yards per pass attempt and grades out as the best pass D in the league by EPA/dropback (garbage time removed). That’s why a defense that “can’t stop the pass” on paper allows the 6th fewest points in the NFL so far.
The other collision is the clock. New England’s second half offense is 4th in the league while the Bears second half defense is 3rd. Tonight, one of those gives.
NE has won 3 straight since their 35-6 loss in Florida. Chicago’s 2 losses are 3-9 to Minnesota and 7-31 at Green Bay; its 4 wins came by 22, 20, 11 and 10.
Which side of the number do we want tonight? Already know the answer.
Find it on the site!
🏈 MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL IS BACK
AND SO IS JAYDEN DANIELS
COMMANDERS @ 49ERS (-7.5)
The undefeated Niners offense is #1 in the NFL and it’s not close. Adjust every snap for who they’ve faced and the gap from them to #2 JAX is bigger than any other gap in the top 10.
Hung +0.28 per pass on Denver (top 3 pass defense). Went to Seattle (#1 defense) and still came out number one.
52% on 3rd down, first in the league. Explosive plays: #2 at creating them and #1 stopping them.
How does Washington look? Like a whole different team after halftime. First halves this year: 54-54. After the break: outscored 95-61
Last 3 weeks: up 17-10 on SEA (won), down 6-10 to Indy (lost), up 12-3 on NYG (tied). Commanders defense is 19th in the first half adjusted, 26th in the second. One of the eight steepest drop offs in the league.
Daniels is back for just his second full game since the opener. Bosa out again for the 4th straight week. SF gets a sack or hit on 22.8% of dropbacks with him, 11.4% without.
70% of the money on San Fran.
At home: won by 22, by 6, by 10.
A hook on the 7 (second most important number in football), a healthy Jayden Daniels, and a WAS team that’s been in every game at halftime.
Which 49ers show up tonight? The 22 or the 6?
Homework is done. Stay tuned.
Last 6 days
The board belongs to us.
8 wins.
2 losses.
1 push.
What was the crown jewel?
Calling a flawless game on SNF as "THE PACK" took care of business start to finish.
TB✅️
FIU🫸
MOSU✅️
SHSU❌️
CLE✅️
DEN ✅️
TB✅️
BYU✅️
IND❌️
LV✅️
GB✅️
Who's tailing tonight?
What a night in the Bronx.
Explosive as it gets.
Complete domination.
Yankees crush the Red Sox 9-0.
Wildcard Tuesday goes 2-0.
73-49-2 last 80 days.
137-95-2 last 234 games.
275-219-3 last 291 days.
+37,298
Post is up.
Big weekend is here.
It starts now.
Listen and act.
Hope everything is good in your world.
HOUSTON @ TEXAS TECH
TORONTO JAYS @ TEXAS RANGERS
Talk about a Wild-Card race.
Talk about excitement.
Talk about a swing of the bat.
Then you're talking about Brayan Rocchio and the Cleveland Guardians.
They took a few detours.
But they got there.
Guardians win 7-6.
24-15-2 last 26 days.
60-37-2 last 68 days.
124-83-2 last 209 games.
262-207-3 last 278 days.
+36,435
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