There's a physicist at Stanford named Safi Bahcall who modeled this exact principle and the math is wild.
He calls it "phase transitions in human networks." When you're stationary, your probability of a lucky event is limited to your existing surface area: the people you already know, the places you already go, the ideas you've already been exposed to. Your opportunity window is fixed.
When you move, your collision rate with new nodes in a network increases nonlinearly. Double your movement (new conversations, new cities, new projects) and your probability of a serendipitous encounter doesn't double. It roughly quadruples. Because each new node connects you to their entire network, not just to them.
Richard Wiseman ran a 10-year study at the University of Hertfordshire tracking self-described "lucky" and "unlucky" people. The single biggest differentiator wasn't IQ, education, or family money. Lucky people scored significantly higher on one trait: openness to experience. They talked to strangers more, varied their routines more, and said yes to invitations at nearly twice the rate.
The "unlucky" group followed the same routes, ate at the same restaurants, and talked to the same 5 people. Their networks were closed loops. No new inputs, no new collisions.
Luck isn't random. Luck is surface area. And surface area is a function of movement.
The lobster emoji is doing more work than most people realize. Lobsters grow by shedding their shell when it gets too tight. The growth requires a period of total vulnerability. No protection, no armor, soft body exposed to the ocean.
That's the cost of movement nobody posts about. You have to be uncomfortable first. The new shell only hardens after you've already moved.
$1.0bn $IREN convertible:
• 0% coupon
• No dilution until ~$120/share (100% premium)
• Best priced >5yr convertible w/ no put since 2021
• Strong long-only order book
• 3rd convertible issuance in 10 months
Congrats to the team!
$IREN is pleased to announce the closing of its $1.0 billion convertible notes offering.
Key details of the transaction:
- Oversubscribed $875m offering, plus $125m greenshoe
- Net proceeds of approximately $979.0m
- 0.00% coupon, 42.5% conversion premium
- No put option for
So, we (kinda silently) launched @lemonade_inc Car in Indiana yesterday. This launch marks a major milestone in Lemonade Car's history-
Yesterday, Lemonade Car got a shiny new heart!
I've spoken briefly about our L2 tech stack before, but the centerpiece of it all is LoCo, our LLM-first, no-code insurance application builder.
With LoCo, our team can rapidly build new products, launch states, iterate on pricing and underwriting, and experiment with various dynamic experiences - all in hours instead of weeks, and without touching any code.
I believe the best projects are those that can stream business value as they're being developed, and that's exactly how we're approaching LoCo. While LoCo is being built, we're already incorporating it into our products, and it's already delivering huge value in Lemonade Pet, and now - Car.
Yesterday, Lemonade Car launched with two new LoCo components:
LoCo Core
Defines and manages coverages, limits, UW criteria, segmentation, QA and validation without a single line of code!
LoCo Rater
A new rating engine, powered by our own Domain Specific Language (DSL), simplifies complex rating logic, improves performance by several orders of magnitude (built on Rust), and comes with advanced validation capabilities. LoCo Rater works hand in hand with our UBI stack, used to analyze driving behavior and help generate risk-based pricing, using our own proprietary data science models.
$IREN is pleased to announce the closing of its upsized $550m convertible notes offering.
Key details of the transaction:
- Oversubscribed and upsized from $450m to $500m, plus $50m greenshoe
- Net proceeds of approximately $534.9m
- 3.50% coupon, 30% conversion premium
- No put option for investors in the notes (other than a customary put right in the case of certain fundamental changes)
- Capped call transactions are generally expected to provide a hedge upon conversions up to an initial cap price of $20.98 per share, which represents a 100% premium (as compared to the 30% conversion premium under the notes)
- Citigroup and J.P. Morgan acted as active bookrunners
Refer to the Press Release for further information: irisenergy.gcs-web.com/static-files/f…
Thank you to Mayor Joan Atkinson and the District of Mackenzie for welcoming us into your community.
It’s a privilege for $IREN to celebrate and support a town that plays a vital role in powering the future of Bitcoin and AI.
$IREN's Community Grants Program for Mackenzie is now open.
Learn more: iren.com/community-gran…
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