Observatoire des Elections @ObservElections

🇧🇷 Brazil runoff in 3 days. Our model: Flávio Bolsonaro wins in 69 of 100 simulated runoffs, Lula in 31. Projected share of valid votes: 51.0 v 49.0, a gap smaller than typical polling error. 30 polls since the first round. A probability, not a prediction. forecast.lemillenaire.org/en/brazil/pres…

Governors: three races have changed favourite since 1 August. Minnesota: Klobuchar (D) 46% → 78% Iowa: Sand (D) 41% → 62% Wisconsin: Crowley (D) 46% → 50.2% Probabilities, not predictions. Le Millénaire forecast, 22 Oct forecast.lemillenaire.org/en/united-stat…

New poll, Israel's Knesset election - Midgam for Channel 12 Yashar: 23 seats Likud: 19 B'Yachad: 15 Netanyahu camp: 51 Anti-Netanyahu camp: 55 Arab lists: 14 Our forecast: forecast.lemillenaire.org/en/israel/knes…

🏛️ Closest House races, our forecast (22 Oct): AZ-01 Shah (D) 50.5% v Feely (R) MN-01 Finstad (R) 52% v Johnson (D) TX-28 Tijerina (R) 52% v Cuellar (D, inc.) PA-01 Fitzpatrick (R) 54% v Harvie (D) NY-21 Constantino (R) 55% v Gendebien (D) Democrats win the House in 74% of simulations.

@business Where the runoff stands in our model (30 polls since the first round, updated 22 Oct): Flávio Bolsonaro: 68.7% chance of winning Lula: 31.3% Projected share of valid votes: 51.0% v 49.0%, well within polling error. A probability, not a prediction. forecast.lemillenaire.org/en/brazil/pres…

@IAPrairiePop Useful context: these splits are by party registration, not votes cast. 124,444 ballots is about 10% of Iowa's total 2022 turnout (1,230,417). Our forecast for Iowa governor: Sand (D) 41% on 1 August, 62% today. A probability, not a prediction. forecast.lemillenaire.org/en/united-stat…

@gentrywgevers Where our model stands today (22 Oct): Senate: Republicans keep control in 70% of simulations. House: Democrats win it in 74%. Probabilities, not predictions: an outcome at 26% or 30% happens roughly 1 time in 4 or 3. forecast.lemillenaire.org/en/united-stat…

@AJEnglish Michigan is the only Senate race in our forecast to change favourite since 1 August. El-Sayed (D): 47% → 60% Rogers (R): 53% → 40% A probability, not a prediction. Le Millénaire forecast, 22 Oct

@MarioNawfal Texas data so far: 731,825 ballots cast (647,071 in person, 84,754 by mail), 9% of total 2022 turnout. Source: UF Election Lab, 21 Oct. Our forecast still has Paxton (R) favoured at 56%, but Talarico (D) has climbed from 32% to 44% since 1 August. forecast.lemillenaire.org/en/united-stat…

🇺🇸 Senate forecast: since 1 August, 18 of the 19 contested races have moved toward Democrats and allied independents. Biggest gains in Democratic chance of winning: Michigan +13 pts, Texas +12, Kansas +12, Alaska +10. Republicans still keep the Senate in 70.6% of our simulations. Le Millénaire forecast, 21 Oct

New poll, Israel's Knesset election - Next Data for Channel 14 (1,954 interviews) Likud: 30 seats Yashar: 20 B'Yachad, Shas: 10 each Netanyahu camp: 62 Anti-Netanyahu camp: 44 Arab lists: 14 Our forecast: forecast.lemillenaire.org/en/israel/knes…

⏳ Countdown, Thu 22 Oct 🇧🇷 Brazil runoff · 3 days 🇮🇱 Israel, Knesset · 5 days 🇺🇸 US midterms · 12 days 📅 election.lemillenaire.org/?utm_source=x&…

@brpollsx Three days out, our runoff model (21 Oct, 29 polls since round one): Flávio Bolsonaro 68.9% chance of winning, Lula 31.1%. Projected valid votes 51.0 to 49.0, Flávio ahead in 16 of 27 states. Polls close Sunday at 17:00 Brasília. A probability, not a prediction.

@VoteHub Our Iowa Senate model (21 Oct) sees the same tilt: polls are close to even, Hinson +0.4 across 16 polls, but state history pushes the expected margin to R +4.6. Chance of winning: Hinson 73%, Turek 27%. This seat voted R +6.6 in 2020.

@VoteHub The county picture behind that statewide edge, from the state's own file through 19 Oct: registered Democrats were 42% of ballots cast and Republicans 37%, but Democrats led in only 21 of Florida's 67 counties. Registration, not votes.

@PollTracker2024 Latest Georgia governor polls: ActiVote (20 Oct) Jackson 52, Bottoms 48 · Quantus (17 Oct) 48-47 · Univ. of Georgia (15 Oct) 46-45 · InsiderAdvantage (13 Oct) 49-47. Average: Jackson +3.0 across 7 pollsters. Our forecast (21 Oct): Jackson 74%, Bottoms 26%.

@PollTracker2024 Where the Texas Senate race stands in our model (21 Oct): Talarico leads the poll average by 3.5 across 28 polls, yet the forecast gives Paxton 56%, with an expected margin of R +1.1. This seat voted R +9.6 in 2020. Early vote so far: 731,825 ballots, 9% of 2022 turnout.

Update: our governor forecast was revised on 21 Oct. Hobbs (D) 87%, Biggs (R) 13% (90/10 in the 20 Oct update). The ballot figures above are unchanged.

🌵 Arizona: 635,134 early ballots returned 25% of the state's total 2022 turnout. By party registration: 🔵 Democrats 39% 🔴 Republicans 38% ⚪ Others 23% Registration, not votes. Governor forecast: Hobbs (D) 90% · Biggs (R) 10%

🗳️ 16.7 million Americans have already voted in the 2026 midterms. Most ballots so far: California 1,973,289 · Florida 1,677,855 · Georgia 1,328,655 Furthest along vs their total 2022 turnout: Georgia 33.5%, Tennessee 27.9%, Vermont 27.3% Ballots cast, not votes for a party. Source: official state counts via UF Election Lab.

🗳️ Michigan: 861,072 absentee ballots already returned 19% of the state's total 2022 turnout. Senate: El-Sayed (D) 60% · Rogers (R) 40% Governor: Benson (D) 73% · James (R) 27% Our forecast, 21 Oct