Bennett TinDIe @PilotEwave

Unlike Apr & Sep where I was able to clearly indicate a move to new lows based on structure, this is an instance where confirmation must first be ACHIEVED. If we are going to new lows, let the market confirm & define the risk! Here's an $SPX chart I sent to clients tonight.

Looking to the #DollarIndex $DXY, 3-waves up from the August lows should NOT complete our higher degree trend. Meaning we must respect the 3-wave pullback support zone at 108.32 - 109.14. Micro Support @ 110.21 Micro Resistance @ 112.11

Here's my final update for the day. If this is truly a 2008 repeat in the $SPX $NDX $RUT, the first sign will come under 3762.79. This view remains a valid possibility, especially when we take into consideration the $DXY (Dollar Index).

Flat, Triangle, Complex.... Or perhaps a completed 7-swing, A-B-C corrective rally in the #SP500? Doesn't matter! The trade only sets up if support responds and a valid correction completes with divergences. 3774, 3793, 3806 support. Bearish pivot considered under 3762.79

Okay -- while resistance held as expected, we've since broken 3803 during the FOMC P.C. Perhaps I was too quick to dismiss the original FLAT posted yesterday. Either way no harm no foul, as the implications of 3-up into the 1st keep the uptrend alive until proven otherwise!

Beautiful completion of 3-waves down today in the $SPX #sp500 wave count. This favors the triangle, which paints resistance near 3890 - 3892. We should reject this zone, and complete one final 3-wave pullback before an upside breakout materializes! MUST HOLD 3803.79.

Even with the sharp reversal today, a 3wave move to the 127.2% Fib in my last $SPX chart shouldn't complete this trend. For now I continue to respect the consolidation in effect since 10/26, and expect 3985-4000 if a Triangle or FLAT completes between 3774 - 3830. #SP500

After getting shutdown at the expected 3880-3900 resistance zone, the #SP500 has since corrected lower in 3-waves, completing last Thursday into the close. I am now tracking a smaller 5-3 move, that if completed successfully should setup a breakout to 3950 - 4,000. $SPX #SPX

If we break the highs in the $SPX, look to 3880 - 3900 resistance to shut this rally down. As mentioned earlier this morning, what happens from there determines where we go into the remainder of Q4

Sharp upside continuation through resistance in the #SP500, with what appears to be a completed 5-wave rally from the Oct 21st low in the $SPX. Clarity on the higher degree trend (lows in vs 2008 repeat) will be reveled based on how the market responds to this move.

We know the bearish potential (2008 repeat, the correlation is remarkable), but what about the idea that the 2022 decline is still simply a corrective wave? IF that is the case, it is either over as we discussed last week, or we have one more low to go. #SP500 $SPX Update.

Shares of #Netflix $NFLX are on the move following a beat on both on the top and bottom lines. Global net paid sub. additions was a beat as well (key metric). From a technical perspective, I see a confluence of resistance near $285. Expecting a $215 retest.

The alternate, more bearish scenario for the #SP500 $SPX chart would imply we just completed 5-down from Aug 16th, and will now retrace in 3-waves before the "heart" of the decline presents. Structure will be critical on this retracement

FYI - The second chart compares the current decline to the structure of the 2008 decline.

The #SP500 $SPX came just 22points shy of my downside 3469 target this morning, and has since rallied more than +150pts! Meaning we may have just completed the 2022 decline, believe it or not. We now need 5-up and 3-back to begin to confirm and forecast further.

Wave 1 of Green '5' completed in the $SPX today. Now we look for that larger retracement into the CPI release that we discussed last week. Depth and duration of the retracement is unknown - identifying its completion will come down to the structure.

Bullish consolidation in the #EnergySector $XLE looks to be gearing up for a breakout. This would imply we still have a higher degree 3-4 consolidation to complete as well. Eyeing 3-waves back in the XLE and #CrudeOil to confirm.

So much for attempting to hold the 61.8 or 78.6% retracement levels! This, in my opinion only confirms my initial #SP500 $SPX downside target zone of 3469 - 3500. If we fail that zone (127.2% of the summer rally + parallel channel), we're going to 3209 - 3264.

Big decision on the horizon next week. If I'm accurate in my assessment, we should see a 3-wave rally fail into the CPI print on Wednesday. If I'm wrong, and this IS the start of a larger upside rally, it should be made clear next week.

Note- This is not an exact forecast. These are the structure/pattern developments to be watching for when this market finds support.