PDI @Political_Data
PDI is trusted by thousands of candidates and organizations to help them mobilize voters, activate supporters and win on Election Day. politicaldata.com Joined August 2012-
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Many know how much I love all the nerdy election data stuff, but there’s few things I love more than the fandom for the @Political_Data early vote tracker. It’s a great CA tradition, and thanks to @LAmag for the little write up. H/t @alexcoheninla for sending this.
Still getting some additional data from counties, including a huge Alameda County update with 178k ballots. And a small 2k more in Sacramento County.
Look at the most recent million ballots reported in CA versus first three million ballots. First 3m: 59% Seniors / 8% Under 35 Latest 1m: 29% Seniors / 17% Under 35 Not all counties report late, but looking at individual counties finds the same thing.
This is JUST the 700k ballots processed and reported today, March 5 (as of 3:50pm). More Republican (34%) fewer Dems (48%) but also slightly younger voters, fewer seniors, although they are still an oversized 45% of voters compared to just 10% of 18-34.
Just posted 345k more returned ballots. Those with accounts will have all those voters marked as returned throughout the day as we get data. This update broke 5-pts more Republican, but also 10-pts more 18-34 and 10-pts lower 65+.
"It’s like a hall of mirrors, you go in and these two populations are equally sized, you come out the other end and one group is six times larger than the other." @paulmitche11 of @Political_Data, contrasting the youth and senior vote in California. More this am @SpecNews1SoCal
2024 Primary 3,164,924 ballots returned Eday -1 2022 Primary 3,170,338 ballots returned Eday -1 24P is currently 50% D / 32% R / 18% Other 22P was 53% D / 27% R / 20% Other 24P is 56% Seniors / 8% 18-34 22P was 52% Seniors / 9% 18-34 24P 14% Latino / 22P 15% Latino
Extra 90k LA returns just posted to client PDI accounts. Here's a snapshot of the tracker as of 2pm. Age 18-34 voters at 3% turnout - Less than 1 in ten votes cast. Seniors at 22% turnout - more than half of votes cast. Latinos at 36% of registered / 20% of returns.
For those closely watching the Early Ballot Returns. There will be a tracker email tomorrow morning, but we only received data today from a number of Counties, for a total of 55k returns. We should have big updates on Monday, with that email blast coming on Tuesday morning.
One week out from California's March 5th primary and 2 million votes cast so far, per @Political_Data's tracker.
Just over 2,500 PDI Early Vote trackers emailed out this AM. Total of 28,702 sent since we started. Signup to get yours here for free: forms.gle/6TQHfGU9V5TVM2…
🚨One Million Ballots Returned 🚨 Or should the 🚨🚨 be 🤷🏼🤷🏼 ?? Fact is that we reached the million ballots mark two days earlier in 2018, 2020 and 2022! In 2021 recall we hit this number a full 8-days earlier! Hard to read this as anything other than historically low turnout.
No update to the early vote tracker tomorrow, Tuesday Feb 20 as Monday was a holiday for county registrars and there were no new files provided. Wednesday should be a relatively big update. Here's the latest top searches for those who are curious what are really the hot races.
Some preliminary notes on early vote comparisons... So far 765,000 ballots have been returned to county registrars in CA. Around 3% of ballots mailed. Let's compare that data to data from 17-days out in past CA primaries...
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The gifs are the best part! Yet another reason to follow @paulmitche11 and @Political_Data in addition to the excellent CA insights each election season 😁📊
Approx 700k ballots left to count in LA County and 300k left in LA City (this is a guess, since @paulmitche11 is doing the same thing)
@CA_120 @Political_Data I heard on NPR driving home that this would be a big election for the youth vote, and honestly I have not laughed that loudly at the radio in a very long time.
More on this with @paulmitche11 tomorrow morning @SpecNews1SoCal!
2024 Primary 3,164,924 ballots returned Eday -1 2022 Primary 3,170,338 ballots returned Eday -1 24P is currently 50% D / 32% R / 18% Other 22P was 53% D / 27% R / 20% Other 24P is 56% Seniors / 8% 18-34 22P was 52% Seniors / 9% 18-34 24P 14% Latino / 22P 15% Latino
@darenreifs @LACountyRRCC @Political_Data That does look like the sad trend, though it still could be a positive over the past for city of LA. In 2015 primary, when same council seats were up for grabs, turnout in the city was a laughable 10.88%. Now city elections are in even-numbered years.
Shoutout to Paul Mitchell over at @Political_Data for providing turnout data in California. Follow him or subscribe to his newsletter for daily updates on CA turnout / nobody tracks CA voter data better than Paul.
@mikegatto @paulmitche11 Location the hills of a quaint town in Mexico
@mikegatto @paulmitche11 Not if the UCI has anything to say about it...
That’s the thing about bodily autonomy and reproductive freedom… you have the right to make decisions about your health, your family and your body… or you don’t. You can’t pick and choose what fits your agenda. Your choice, Your voice, Your VOTE. #2024Elections
In new memo obtained by CNN, NRSC instructs its candidates to reject clearly and concisely government attempts to restrict access to IVF
Looking like California is going to have historically low turnout on Super Tuesday. Voters are…uninspired.
🚨One Million Ballots Returned 🚨 Or should the 🚨🚨 be 🤷🏼🤷🏼 ?? Fact is that we reached the million ballots mark two days earlier in 2018, 2020 and 2022! In 2021 recall we hit this number a full 8-days earlier! Hard to read this as anything other than historically low turnout.
@Political_Data Did my part to get you some early data!
Starting on March 15, we'll be hosting weekly training sessions. This is a great way to familiarize yourself with the CallTime AI platform, ask questions, or learn about our advanced features. Current clients can sign up via email.
Man, I’m glad we kept #CA41 Rep. Ken Calvert (R) in a competitive column at @CookPolitical (Lean R), even if we misjudged #CO03.
Low key winner tonight - survey methodology best practices #polling
Shout out to @Political_Data for their daily tracker to keep us 'wonks' informed of the electorates activities for this election!
The good folks @Political_Data did a great job this year producing their Early Vote Tracker. Thanks!
Before the polls close, I want to again thank @paulmitche11 & @Political_Data for great customer service this election cycle.
Ca #aapi turnout primary early vote vs general early vote according to @Political_Data