Vox Populi - Polls & Elections in Hungary @PopuliIn
I am Gabor Toka, a political science professor at the Central European University, and will occasionally tweet here about elections and polling data in Hungary Joined October 2019-
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Note how the pollsters of Fidesz, whose estimates are identified with yellowish points in the chart, put out pure propaganda instead of decent polls before the election, and how they silenced completely since.
Five weeks after the #2026election in #Hungary, the new governing party #TISZA cruised into an unprecedented 40+% lead in the polls ahead of #Fidesz. With the crumbling of Orbán's propaganda machine, does his party's 36% vote share in the elections prove poorly motivated?
See my forecast of the final breakdown of list votes at datawrapper.de/_/htC7B/
There are nearly 500K list votes and 300K single-member district votes yet to be counted in the #Hungary2026election. My estimate of how they may shape up in the declaration due on Saturday. #TISZA is to win about 140 seats. Predictive polls should be judged against column 2.
The last #polls before the #2026HungarianElection were unkind to #ViktorOrban's #Fidesz. The already large lead of #TISZA widened further while the pro-government pollsters yellow-orange-brown posts became sparse and stagnant. Check back for my last forecast in the evening.
The last weeks of the #2026HungarianElection campaign are a disaster for #Fidesz. After a year of stable lead by the opposition #TISZA party, independent pollsters now see its lead growing and active military and police officers publicly recommend #OrbanMustGo. 9 days till 04-12.
Not much is changing in the #2026election polls in #Hungary. #Orbán seems to be heading to defeat on April 12. On Tuesday we discussed with professors Boda and Szél (the latter is also a former green opposition candidate for PM) the hows and whys: youtube.com/watch?v=3bWlgZ…
TISZA need an appr. 5% lead to win an overall majority in parliament in spite of gerrymander and a smaller far-right party also winning a few seats. All this is before the addition of the largely inconsequential ballots coming in from non-resident citizens in Romania etc.
My take in short is to ignore the "orange-rich" polls as pure fabrication this year, but to adjust the moving average of the others for bias and trend. It seems to me that the TISZA lead rose lately, by almost as much as the bias to overestimate it, and is now around 8-9%.
The "orange-rich" polls of Fidesz and the "orange-free" polls of all other pollsters sharply disagree prior to the 2026 Hungarian elections. The first suggests a 48:40 lead of Viktor Orbán's Fidesz over its challenger TISZA, and the second a 49:38 lead in the reverse direction.
@irishman787878 Félreértés, hogy itt valami nagy látnivaló lenne. Részletek és magyarázatok itt: facebook.com/valasztasi.kal…
#TISZA enters the #2026Hungarianelection campaign with a healthy lead over #Orbán’s #Fidesz in all polls bare the ones published by the regime's notorious propaganda institutes, marked by yellowish colors in my chart. Can the propaganda pollsters see something right?
#europeanelection2024 outcome may be the most predictable of all: any drama or polling error in one country is cancelled out by what is co-occurring in 26 other member states. My averaging of the latest forecasts from seven poll aggregators at tinyurl.com/nj9r6bb8
Support for #Viktor #Orbán’s #Fideszparty dropped fast in #Hungary since the last national election in April 2022 but the opposition vote, largely united by a single alliance in 2021, is now split between apparently incompatible options. Details here: tinyurl.com/54p5f7fm
The second part of the article with the simulation itself here: voxpopuli.444.hu/2023/10/15/enn…
Far-right #Konfederacja shall be king-maker in all other eventualities. Details in Hungarian: voxpopuli.444.hu/2023/10/15/enn… voxpopuli.444.hu/2023/10/14/mit…
#Poland’s #exitpolls have an impressive track record, but today’s parliamentary #election is likely to be too close to call on that basis. I prepared some charts that can help understanding what comes next. See thread below.
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