Quality Compounder @Q_Compounder
I help you figure out if a stock is actually worth buying. Value the Stock 👇 valuethestock.com Joined February 2025-
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@twitbot72169658 @StockMarketNerd Legit question: what would it take to change your mind on $IREN? If the AI contracts land at strong margins, the dilution gets forgiven fast. If not, fair to stay mad. Which are you watching: valuethestock.com/stocks/IREN
@ariaradnia @StockMarketNerd Dell's 2013 go-private was $24.9B. $NKE's market cap alone is ~$55B, so taking it private at any real premium would be 2-3x that deal. Scale changes the math completely: valuethestock.com/stocks/NKE
@BrianFeroldi Fair. Which metric breaks first when a company hits the decline phase? My take: P/E, because buybacks can keep shrinking the share count long after growth is gone.
@BrianFeroldi Worth adding the other side: a low QoE ratio isn't always a red flag. Reinvesting businesses can run below 1.0 for years while they compound. The real signal is whether the ratio is stable over a 5-year window, not one year's print.
@BrianFeroldi Innosight's forecast puts average S&P 500 tenure at 15-20 years this decade, down from 30-35 in the late 70s. "Stays great" is the whole game, and the index turnover keeps proving how rare it is.
Run the P/E model yourself (free, no signup): valuethestock.com/?tab=pe&symbol…
$DIS at 23x earnings vs 64x 5-yr avg P/E — earnings grew into the multiple.
@dividendology Worth a look at small caps: the Russell 2000 trades at ~24x forward earnings vs ~19x for the S&P 500, yet small-cap earnings are forecast to grow 35% over the next two years vs 14% for large caps. Does that spread make small caps the best opportunity right now?
@BrianFeroldi Interesting 2/5. $DRI at ~21x trailing earnings with ~10.6% EPS growth expected next year and a 3% dividend yield, plus $1.36B returned to shareholders in the last 12 months via buybacks and dividends. What's the multiple where it becomes a buy for you? valuethestock.com/stocks/DRI
@ariaradnia $UBER flat for 1000 days while FCF compounds is exactly the setup that screams cheap. The bear case worth naming: is today's FCF a peak being priced in, or a floor the market hasn't caught up to? valuethestock.com/stocks/UBER
@StockSavvyShay Gentle pushback: the drawdowns worth buying share one trait. The company is still generating cash and buying back stock at these prices. When FCF is falling into the lows, that is a value trap, not a sale.
@ariaradnia Good chart, but the story is the multiple. $UBER's TTM free cash flow crossed $10B for the first time in Q2 (up from ~$3.9B in 2022), while the stock sits near $68. That's ~14x cash flow: growth at a value price. valuethestock.com/stocks/UBER
@ariaradnia Respectfully, the $35B debt load is the story: $3B in 2026 interest vs ~$1B guided adjusted operating income. Bonds yielding 16% means the market is pricing credit risk, not AI demand. Overblown? Maybe. Mispriced? That is the question. valuethestock.com/stocks/CRWV
Run the P/E model yourself (free, no signup): valuethestock.com/?tab=pe&symbol…
$COST at 48x earnings vs 46x 5-yr avg P/E — in line with history.
@BrianFeroldi The 2022 version of this: $META traded under 9x trailing earnings in late 2022. The cheap multiple was pricing in a slowdown that never fully arrived. P/E described the fear, not the value.
@BrianFeroldi $DIS has quietly re-rated from ~16.7x to ~22.8x trailing earnings since the end of 2025, nearly matching Netflix's multiple. If that is what a 3/5 valuation score looks like, what does a 4/5 require? valuethestock.com/stocks/DIS
@BrianFeroldi Gentle pushback: for true quality compounders the phase barely changes, so the metrics that matter barely change either. Phase-switching is mostly a story-stock problem, and that is where I think most valuation mistakes happen.
@ariaradnia $ASML at ~$1,640 trades 41x trailing earnings, 26x forward. The market already prices big EPS growth, so where's the mispricing: the multiple, or the earnings? valuethestock.com/stocks/ASML
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