BackDoorCover Sports @RLM_Disciple

Contrarian biased bettor: I I blend models + spot systems + market analysis to isolate value where public perception creates dislocations. Free content Flavortown Joined December 2019

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BackDoorCover Sports @RLM_Disciple

3 years ago

US Open 🎾 - Pegula vs Kvitova (R4 - D8) Pegula ML vs Kvitova (-120) $2.4 / $2.0 Pegula has massively improved her game vs. the last time these two played a H2H - her baseline consistency will apply alot of pressure on an opponent who has shown wobbles thus far in the tournament

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BackDoorCover Sports @RLM_Disciple

3 years ago

US Open 🎾- Norrie vs Rublev (R4 - D8) ->Norrie ML (-150) $1.5 / $1.0 ->Norrie ML x Alcaraz -1.5 set (+138) $1.0 / $1.38 ->Norrie O3.5 set (in 2 parlays) Rublev might be a better *tennis player* but Norrie has more WAYS to win points in this specific H2H Full Match Preview⬇️

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BackDoorCover Sports @RLM_Disciple

3 years ago

US Open 🎾 (Rd 4 - Day 8): Full bet card with unit weightings for US Open action on Monday 9/5. We got a sweat on Collins Outright / Quarter bets tonight as well, I have a feeling Sabalenka is ultimately the biggest hurdle on that adventure

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BackDoorCover Sports @RLM_Disciple

3 years ago

US Open 🎾(Rd 4 - Day 8): Here's what I'm honing in on today with implied probabilities for each line: A couple units @ the ML plays + Alcaraz -6 gm. Will use Alcaraz -1.5 set (-250) and the O3.5 set lines in round robin style 2x parlay combos together Bet card coming shortly

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BackDoorCover Sports @RLM_Disciple

3 years ago

Match Preview - US Open (Rd 4 - D7): ->Kudermetova / Jabeur O21.5 gm (-120) $2.4 / $2.0 ->1st Set O10.5 (+245) $0.4 / $1.0 ->1st Set O12.5 (+400) $0.25 / $1.0 Super even, serve dominant matchup with girls that tend to run hot and cold within a match (momentum swings). Over party

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BackDoorCover Sports @RLM_Disciple

3 years ago

Match Preview - US Open (Rd 4 - D7): ->Med / Kyrgios O40.5 (-120) $2.4 / $2.0 ->Kyrgios ML (+150) $1.5 / $1.0 ->1S O10.5 (+120) x Gauff $0.54 / $1.0 ->1S O12.5 (+165) x Gauff $0.41 / $1.0 Pure coin flip given H2H priors and some changes Kyrgios has made, I'll take +150. Notes⬇️

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BackDoorCover Sports @RLM_Disciple

3 years ago

Match Preview - US Open (Rd 4 - D7): Busta -3.5 gm vs Khach (-115) $1.15 / $1.0 Busta ML x Gauff ML (-108) $2.16 / $2.0 Khach has owned the H2H on HC but Busta was a different player at that time - he is the form player in this matchup, consistency + aggr hand him a big edge

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BackDoorCover Sports @RLM_Disciple

3 years ago

Match Preview - US Open (Rd 4 - D7): Samsonova -3.5 gm vs Tomljanovic (-115) $1.15 / $1.0 Samso ML x Gauff ML (-105) $2.1 / $2.0 Tomljanovic overmatched here if the Samsonova of the L3 months shows up here. Nerves + a draining W vs Serena set the stage for some lopsided scores

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BackDoorCover Sports @RLM_Disciple

3 years ago

#TennisBets - US Open (Rd 3 Recap) Not a great couple of days, come out of it down -$1.15 units for R3. Takes me to +$1.33 for the tournament with ROI of +4.6% on every unit staked. A smaller menu of plays for R4 are coming up shortly

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BackDoorCover Sports @RLM_Disciple

3 years ago

#TennisBets - US Open (Rd 3 - D6) Pliskova/Bencic O22 (-115) $1.15 / $1.0 1st Set O10.5 (+260) $0.4 / $1.0 1st Set O12.5 (+450) $0.2 / $1.0 This profiles as a serve-dominant affair on a fast court. O22 full match is a great look, small dart on mispriced 1st set Overs as well.

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BackDoorCover Sports @RLM_Disciple

3 years ago

#TennisBets - US Open (Rd 3 - D6) Schwartz O3.5 set x Ivashka ML (+143) $1.0 / $1.43 Schwartz O3.5 set x Kvitova ML (+145) $1.0 / $1.45 Schwartz ML (+195) $0.51 / $1.0 Using Schwartz / Tiafoe O3.5 in a couple parlays today + I see some value on Schwartz ML as well Notes ⬇️

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BackDoorCover Sports @RLM_Disciple

3 years ago

#TennisBets - US Open (Rd 3 - D6) Ivashka ML vs Musetti (-180) $1.8 / $1.0 Ivashka -2.5 gm (-125) $2.5 / $2.0 Absolute smash spot here. Musetti is simply a fade on Hard Courts and comes in having played 9 sets in the L2 rds. Love the matchup for Ivashka, he rolls here Notes ⬇️