Ridge CFB @RidgeCFB

No parlays. No lock emojis. No deleted tweets. College football best bets from a statistical model. 2026 Record: 18-6-1 ATS (1u flat) the-cfb-model.vercel.app Joined July 2026

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Ridge CFB @RidgeCFB

10 hours ago

a gap is where we start, not where we stop. when something actually makes the cut, it goes in the best bets thread with the full reasoning behind it. this chart is just the forecasts

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where gaps are useful is telling you where to look. Mizzou/A&M is 10 apart, and A&M’s rating just jumped 12.6 off one game. that’s a team the model is still learning about, so it’s one to watch, not one to bet on

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Ridge CFB @RidgeCFB

10 hours ago

Ridge vs the market for week 6, sorted by how far apart we are biggest one: we have Ohio State by 23.1, the market has them by 34.5 and no, that doesn’t mean take Maryland

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Ridge CFB @RidgeCFB

10 hours ago

fun one to watch this week: A&M at Mizzou. their rating just jumped and it’s one of the biggest gaps between Ridge and the market on the board. more on that in the next thread

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Ridge CFB @RidgeCFB

10 hours ago

A&M jumped 12.6 after Arkansas, and the scoreboard (34-7) matched how they played snap to snap. if they back it up the rating sticks. if not it’ll come back down some. one game is one game

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Ridge CFB @RidgeCFB

10 hours ago

biggest movers after week 5 we had EMU losing at UMass. instead they won 38-14 Ridge now thinks EMU would beat an average FBS team by 14.8 more points than it did last week. UMass dropped 20

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Ridge CFB @RidgeCFB

10 hours ago

none of this means the ratings are bad. it means some of them are still settling. the teams near the bottom of the chart are the ones most likely to move a lot in the next few weeks

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Ridge CFB @RidgeCFB

10 hours ago

and preseason expectations matter less every year. with the portal and coaching turnover, last year’s team can be a pretty bad guide to this year’s. so early on there’s less to lean on before the games start piling up

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Ridge CFB @RidgeCFB

10 hours ago

where Ridge has everybody heading into week 6 further right = better team. higher up = more confident in that rating that confidence piece is the part worth explaining, so here’s why we’re more sure about some teams than others 🧵

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Ridge CFB @RidgeCFB

2 days ago

want the model's number on a game that's not here? reply with the matchup and i'll send it every forecast and every result is on the site: the-cfb-model.vercel.app

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Ridge CFB @RidgeCFB

2 days ago

if you're new, here's what ridge is every play in college football gets an EPA value, basically how much it moved a team's expected points. ridge rates every offense and defense off that instead of final scores, so garbage time and fluky bounces count for a lot less ratings update every week with a kalman filter, which also tracks how sure it is about each team. early in the year that uncertainty is wide, and it tightens as teams play more games those ratings feed a second model that projects the margin with a range around it. this season the 80% ranges have caught between 77% and 87% of games each week then it compares that to the market with the vig taken out. a game only makes the card if: ▸ the edge is 4.5%+ ▸ ridge is within 7 points of the line (any further and we're probably missing something) ▸ both starting QBs are confirmed