THE Ron Butler @RonButler44

New Construction Collapse In GTA: If You Thought It Was Bad In 2024 It Will Be Worse In 2025 Welcome to 35 year lows in New Home Sales, worst since 1990 which was also a Housing Industry collapse year in Ontario Oh, and there are 4 Million more people in Ontario than 1990 2/

In the end all forms of home building in the GTA simply became too expensive for ordinary people to afford No matter how many people screamed about how obvious that fact was: no level of Government really cared Only when total collapse hits does anyone in Government notice 6/

Today Municipalities are starting to wake up & realize they are in BIG TROUBLE In Vaughan on Toronto's northern border the City chopped Development Charges massively On Toronto's western border Mississauga just announced huge reductions in Fees Too little, too late

Lay-offs would start within a few weeks A sudden BoC drop to 2% could only be assumed But Canadian Counter Tariffs would be inflationary as many US goods instantly jump 25% in price We could also end up with a 64 or 63 cent CAD as the strength of USD grows steadily 6/

The BoC will face a choice: raise Rates & fight inflation or maintain Emergency Rates in a Major Recession It's a hard choice but everyone needs to understand: there's no clear answer Variable Rates may STILL be right: taking Fixed Rates out of pure fear may not be the answer

Which is 95% certain to be a pause If the Trump Tariffs are BIG the BoC has very few options, but emergency cuts to offset a true economic disaster for Canada 50 - 100 BPS cuts The Tariff impact on the Canadian Auto Industry is just huge: it's devastating for jobs 5/

Wednesday Bank Of Canada Meeting: 25 BPS Cut Incoming But Then What? It's time to think past this BoC announcement & start thinking about the rest of 2025 Not very easy with a Trade War looming that might start in only a few days Start by assuming some sort of Tariffs 2/

Mortgage Rates & Trade Wars: What Should We Expect Will there be 25% Tariffs on Feb 1 or maybe April 1 but maybe they won't be 25%, yeah confusing but there will be some Tariffs eventually How does it effect mortgage rates? Let's break it down US Tariffs on Canadian goods 2/

Or take the safest route with Fixed Rates? Tough call Here's the strangest thing; for the first time in the 30 years I have been doing this the future of mortgage rates in Canada depends on one man Donald J. Trump

Should Canadians take 3 - Yr or 5 - Yr Fixed as protection? Possibly, except the old dilemma is take a 3 - Yr Fixed at 4.29% & miss out on several years of Variable at 3.25% Today, it's harder to give good rate advice than for the last year Stay flexible with Variable 6/

That's bad for our Economy & fuel for the Recession fire therefore the Bank of Canada's reaction is to continue to lower rates: Take Variable Mortgages BUT Canada puts Counter Tariffs on American goods coming to Canada which is inflationary & may drive BoC to raise rates 3/

Can We Finally All Agree Canada Is Too Obsessed With Real Estate? Our success as a country shouldn't come from selling houses to each other Let's Drill, let's Mine, let's Invent Stuff, let's Inovate That's how to build wealth in Canada @WOWA_Canada delivers the research

Hanif Bayat @HanifBayat

2 years ago

Investment Trends: 🏠 Housing: • 🇨🇦 leads, driven by high development fees! • 🇨🇦🇺🇸🇬🇧diverged after 2005. 🏗️ Infrastructure: • 🇨🇦 ranks 2nd (high costs). • 🇺🇸 ranks last, indicating underinvestment. 💡 IP: • 🇺🇸 🇫🇷 lead in innovation. • 🇨🇦 ranks last⚠️

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Unless your job is untouchable (Physician / Cop / Fire) just don't buy RE unless it's a cash purchase Let's face facts between Trump Tariffs & a general economic slowdown unless you are a cash buyer or totally safely employed TODAY may not be the right time to buy RE in Ontario

It could take years How will you know when RE hits bottom? You won't know One true thing is you cannot time a complicated totally regional market like RE The only rational conclusion is that when Employment becomes precarious (9% Unemployment in the City of Toronto) 5/

Should I Buy A House Now? In The Mortgage Business You Get That Question Alot The classic Real Estate answer: It's ALWAYS a good time to buy Which is utter BS, how do the people feel today who won a 25 bid contest by paying $400K over asking in 2021? They're screwed now 2/

No, that's total BS Maybe it's forgivable because politicians do politics its just their nature & now is clearly the best timing for Ford to go to the people

Ford Says Ontario Needs An Election NOW. Or Maybe Just Ford Needs It? Doug Ford insist he needs a mandate from Voters to allow him to battle the Trump Trade War Ummm.... he already HAS a majority in Legislature? So why call an election now to happen in Freezing February? 2/

Canada isn't Saudi Arabia But But Has Almost As Much Oil Some of the biggest oil reserves in the world & 4th largest producer The Tax Revenue Energy produces effectively funds our Healthcare system but no country on Earth has ever bad mouthed a huge source of wealth like we do

Richard Dias @RichardDias_CFA

2 years ago

Check out the latest IceCap Canadian Market Wrap: Canada Is A Petrostate - Get Over It! youtu.be/qaYyFvHiLCo

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