Anthony Gerber @Sensenotes

@NateSilver538 Poly market is also 50/50: Trump favored in outright win bet, Harris favored overall in tiered EV voting market...

@NateSilver538 But it's not a binomial distribution because they are weighting the data.... The problem is they're changing their waiting strategy in real time, making it Impossible to compare results overtime.

@NateSilver538 i'm not sure I've seen a run where the overall probability of electoral college win is less than 50%, yet the average earned electoral votes are greater than 270. That is currently the scenario for harris

@NateSilver538 Suffolk had Biden up 7% in October 2020 (although "Other" had a vote share of 9%?!?). Irrespective, the real Wizard of Oz in all of the simulated projections is whether the polling outfits have corrected for the Trump skew.

@NateSilver538 Does the 2022 data support a large EC to Popular vote gap for 2024? R's had more votes nationwide and made modest gains in the house, suggesting fairly close national-state-district dynamics.

@NateSilver538 I see the numbers, but it seems like we are almost back to the Biden versus Trump race status in the prediction model, which seems somewhat implausible?

@NateSilver538 I understand the model has built-in features, but without any prior knowledge, I would say that close polls are good for harris, as they keep her base, nervous, engaged, and energized.

@NateSilver538 Nate nailed 2016 by giving Trump a reasonable chance, as Nate accounted for the fact that that polling errors across different surveys are NOT independent. In basic terms, you can't simply multiply the p values to get more confidence, which some models more or less did.

@drdavidsamadi Hypertension, high cholesterol, obesity and osteoarthritis are 4 very common health conditions (co morbidities) that co occur in many of our parents and grandparents. Are their lives less valuable?

Latest from National Jewish Clinical/Translational Research Team

Impaired SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine antibody response in chronic medical conditions: a real-world data analysis medrxiv.org/content/10.110…

Latest work form the Gerber-Sasse Lab! Nascent RNA sequencing defines dynamic aryl hydrocarbon receptor signaling responses to wood smoke particles biorxiv.org/content/10.110…

New work from Gerber-Sasse lab and our fantastic collaborators! JCI Insight - The MUC5B-associated variant rs35705950 resides within an enhancer subject to lineage- and disease-dependent epigenetic remodeling insight.jci.org/articles/view/…

@NateSilver538 For the elderly, it is vey good advice until numbers are down 10 fold. Many places have 10x cases more than summer; with 85% efficacy in the elderly risk post vaccine is still similar to the summer.

@NateSilver538 Agreed that is is entirely empiric. However, open schools have a tendency to normalize and in turn promote other social activities, which do increase the R0.

Recurring theme: Even the rapid refresh models can't catch up with the dynamics of the recent series of Denver snow events. #coloradowx; @weather5280.

The official size of Denver snowfalls is generally lower since DIA moved, based on frequent sharp E-> W snow gradients. Based on the forecast map, that could happen with this storm as well.

I was hoping Tuesday night would be a bigger event, but latest GFS is not looking so good....@weather5280. Hopefully Euro looks better; they seemed to have a better handle on the Sunday/Monday storm.

My lab, using a combination of GRO-seq and ChIP-seq, recently reported in @genomeresearch that regulatory regions repressed by glucocorticoids are in hyperChIPable regions. We think this reframes debates about GR occupancy and repression!

Nascent transcript analysis of glucocorticoid crosstalk with TNF defines primary and cooperative inflammatory… disq.us/t/3ao9xxo@gene…