Cynical Engineer @ShanleyKevin
Searching for sanity in crazy town. Engineer by profession; financial nerd by hobby. Fascinated by stock cults. Joined August 2011-
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$FFH.TO - highest ROE, lowest P/B and P/E in the peer group
$FFH.TO - highest ROE, lowest P/B and P/E in the peer group
@hhhhhhjajjssjsj $FFH.TO exit strategy? I like Lynch's framework: 'sell if the story has played out as expected and is reflected in the price.' The Fairfax story has not finished 'playing out' - it is just getting started. And little of what is coming is reflected in the stock price today.
for the Fairfax gang $FFH.TO
Spoke with Brian Bradstreet (Head Bond Analyst) at Fairfax $FFH.TO last week. After extending the duration in ’22 and ’23, presently building some cash at the start of ’24. There is a possibility that we will see higher for longer, or maybe even just higher. No guarantees, but…
$FFH.TO $FRFHF $MKL - Found it interesting that Markel held Fairfax stocks in the past. Not sure what changed and why they didn't buy in 2020-now when it is still cheap? Also found Steve's take on the FFH's hedging interesting.. Source: covestreetcapital.com/wp-content/upl…
Always enjoy talking Berkshire Hathaway and all things investing with @stig_brodersen. Look forward to seeing everyone headed to Omaha. We’ll have a great weekend celebration of Charlie Munger and his enormous contribution to the investing world and society at large. Rationality.
Always enjoy talking Berkshire Hathaway and all things investing with @stig_brodersen. Look forward to seeing everyone headed to Omaha. We’ll have a great weekend celebration of Charlie Munger and his enormous contribution to the investing world and society at large. Rationality.
Go Digit Life Insurance, the new Indian 🇮🇳 insurance company of Fairfax Financial $FFH.TO $FRFHF closed the fiscal year with ≈$50m in premiums (8 months). An exceptional start with a very-very long runway.
Go Digit Life Insurance, the new Indian 🇮🇳 insurance company of Fairfax Financial $FFH.TO $FRFHF closed the fiscal year with ≈$50m in premiums (8 months). An exceptional start with a very-very long runway.
It appears all the protesters of earlier years are going back to work. Eurobank $EUROB
It appears all the protesters of earlier years are going back to work. Eurobank $EUROB
Two months into Q1 (Feb 29), Fairfax's equity holdings (that I track) are up about $496mn. Solid start. Big gainers? Eurobank, TRS-FFH and Thom Cook India. Total equity portfolio is about $18bn. Click the link below to see complete details. $FFH.TO $FRFHF thecobf.com/forum/topic/16…
Today we compare Fairfax to 6 other P/C insurance companies. Which companies have performed the best over the past 5 years? How do valuations look? Does anything stand out? Click the link to read my long-form post. $FFH.TO $BRK $IFC.TO $MKL $WRB $CB $AIG thecobf.com/forum/topic/20…
The $FFH.TO CC went well. I appreciated when the NBF analyst asked if there was upside to the $2b of investment income, Prem explained that $4b in total operating earnings is conservative. $FRFHF market cap is < $24b.
The $FFH.TO CC went well. I appreciated when the NBF analyst asked if there was upside to the $2b of investment income, Prem explained that $4b in total operating earnings is conservative. $FRFHF market cap is < $24b. https://t.co/uUNvdVbI4W
Fairfax $FFH.TO Short (Addendum): The three most amazing observations from last week’s short attack on Fairfax were the following: 1) Poor analysis, 2) Clear as Mud, 3) Shareholders you deserve. 1/ How quickly the poor analysis of the short report by Muddy Waters was…
If you know you know @VikingVan100 $FFH.TO
Fairfax $FFH.TO short: 1/ I am a fan of Muddy Waters Research, so surprised that after 20 years another short attack came out from their shop, which I respect, on Fairfax. Unlike the previous short attack where negative points were so obscure no one could refute easily, this…
Capital allocation decisions are what drive the long-term performance of a company. Over the last 6 years Fairfax has been delivering a master-class in capital allocation. EPS, BV, ROE are now spiking. Click the link to read my long-form post. $FFH.TO thecobf.com/forum/topic/20…
Go Digit General Insurance Ltd, Fairfax’s $FFH.TO Indian 🇮🇳 P/C sub had another respectable month in December. Premiums up 32% ytd with the market growing at 15%. Looking at a fiscal year run rate of ≈ $1B presently.
Two CEO's made big stock purchases screaming to investors that they thought their share price was dirt cheap. In 2016, Jamie Dimon purchased $27mn of JPM's battered stock. In 2020 Prem Watsa purchased US$149mn in Fairfax stock. Looks like both were right! $JPM $FFH.TO
They are on to something.
They are on to something.
Fairfax has been putting on a clinic the past 2 years of how to manage a fixed income portfolio through the historic bear market in bonds. Interest rate risk? Inflation risk? Click the link below to read our long-form post. $FFH.TO $CB $BRK $WRB $MKL $AIG thecobf.com/forum/topic/19…
$FFH $FFH.TO $876.55 3rd quarter book. $42.26 in earnings, 5% increase in net premiums written, dividends and interest at $512 million for the quarter. Share of profits of $291 million. Very solid quarter. I am pleased.
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When a man dumps a woman in an LTR, he'll be asked to reply to meetings, calls & emails from her so she can get clarity & feel better. If a man asks for clarity, she'll call him a "needy creep" that's stalking her.
"We see Digit as generously being valued at ~$1.5 billion presently. We therefore adjust Fairfax's book value downward by -$1.1 billion to align Digit's carrying value with a more reasonable value.” - MW let’s check back shortly on that... $FFH.to
$FFH.TO - highest ROE, lowest P/B and P/E in the peer group
last $ffh.to tweet for today, it just looks like a great set up. (3 year duration, govt bonds, value stocks + swaps on their own shares, highest roe/lowest p/b). I think they can earn half the market in the next 3 years...
Brit Insurance was purchased by Fairfax in 2015 for a total of $1.7 billion. Brit earned $895.4 million in 2023 and has paid dividends of $601.5 million over the past 15 months. Brit looks well positioned moving forward. Click the link for more. $FFH.TO thecobf.com/forum/topic/20…
When I watch something like this it makes me think I don’t own enough $FFH.TO and $FIH.U. Why can’t the rupee become a relevant currency at some point especially given its size, geopolitical importance and how much gold its citizens own?
The best 13 minutes and 40 seconds you’ll spend on the internet today. 🔥🔥
@Lllearning97 @ExcessDefaults @rhunterh $FFH.TO is generating a lot of surplus capital now. The next opportunity, they plan to buy quality at a fair price. We’ll see if they execute.
@BrownMarubozu @MananaInvesting I kind of like it staying cheap so I don’t have to find something to replace it lol
@TidefallCapital @BrownMarubozu Me calculating where $FFH.TO will be if it trades at a good multiple in 5 years.
@BrownMarubozu I keep running the numbers, it still looks crazy cheap to me.
@manuelfr99 @NonObviously Future pain is hopefully minimal but probably won’t feel like it at times $FFH.TO
$FFH.TO has been in a position to exercise the call option to buy out the minority interest held by OMERS since October. That could be where they put some of their ever expanding surplus capital.
Brit Insurance was purchased by Fairfax in 2015 for a total of $1.7 billion. Brit earned $895.4 million in 2023 and has paid dividends of $601.5 million over the past 15 months. Brit looks well positioned moving forward. Click the link for more. $FFH.TO thecobf.com/forum/topic/20…
last $ffh.to tweet for today, it just looks like a great set up. (3 year duration, govt bonds, value stocks + swaps on their own shares, highest roe/lowest p/b). I think they can earn half the market in the next 3 years...
The $FFH.TO set up also looks good in the short term. Consensus has ratcheted down heading into Q1 to a very beatable #. Analysts may also raise their forward estimates which should lead quants into the stock. The higher BV will allow sellers to raise their limit orders as well.
last $ffh.to tweet for today, it just looks like a great set up. (3 year duration, govt bonds, value stocks + swaps on their own shares, highest roe/lowest p/b). I think they can earn half the market in the next 3 years...
My thesis is that every quarter we will get a little bit of multiple expansion as we have seen since 2020. Relative to peers as @TidefallCapital highlighted or to $FFH.TO ‘s own historical P/B multiples, there is still lots of room for a material increase which amplifies returns.
Prem should be in the conversation especially with what’s going to happen over the next 10 years. $FFH.TO ‘s smaller size and creative asset allocation has allowed it to outperform $BRK by a wide margin over the last 24 years which probably surprises most people.
Ok, actually I am curious about people's answer to "After Buffett who will be the greatest living investor"
NHTSA now sees things my way! The truth has finally prevailed. In their new report, the National Highway Traffic Administration (NHTSA) found: Tesla had over 5.5 times more self-driving crashes than they reported. After correcting for this, Tesla’s data shows supervised Full…
Go Digit Life Insurance, the Indian 🇮🇳 sub of Fairfax $FFH.TO reported yesterday. Group Premiums are on track for ≈$60m yearly run in the 1st year of launch. The company has a very-very long runway. Recall there are only twenty-six, repeat, (26) Life Insurance companies in…
@CCM_Ryan Get some $FFH.TO. It’s $NNI on steroids. Double in 5 years
@ohcapideas Yeah, leverage is a big part of what the discussion ignores. The other part is what’s in the equity portfolio and therefore what the expected returns are. Some big pieces of $FFH.TO portfolio are cheap on earnings and/or are marked well below fair value.
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