"But Smug, we have Iran LAUNCHING DRONES AND FIRING MISSILES AT ISRAEL!!!" Yeah, they are. But why are they doing this again? 9/x
Right, because Israel attacked Iran's consulate in Damascus last week, which killed seven senior officers of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), incl. a senior general. Hitting a country's diplomatic mission in a third country is generally seen as a BIG NO-NO. 10/x
Now, to be fair, when you have a lot of IRGC figures (including a top figure) in a consulate building, it's very very very likely weren't just sitting around having tea. They were probably planning/coordinating military-related stuff. ie, you can see why Israel did this. 11/x
That doesn't change the fact the Israelis crossed A BIG LINE by attacking a consulate/diplomatic building (plus killing a senior figure). This is a pretty big stick whack. Iran HAS to respond with its own whack to reestablish deterrence. They've signaled as much for days. 12/x
Really, there are two scenarios. Scenario 1: Iran gets hits in and shows strength, reestablishing deterrence. Things de-escalate a bit after some face-saving back-and-forth. The fact that this attack was basically telegraphed ahead of time (and is even now) hints at this. 14/x
There is, however, the more troubling possibility of Scenario 2: *ACTUAL ESCALATION*. The problem here is that Israel and its leadership is — interestingly — the more "irrational" actor in this situation. 15/x
Iran doesn't want a war: it can afford to wait for the Israelis and Americans to grow weaker, especially the latter. The Biden admin doesn't want a war: it's facing a HARD election year, its military is already overstretched as fuck, and it can't handle another front. 16/x
PARTS — (though not all!) — of Israel's leadership though is cognizant that time is NOT on its side. America is growing relatively weaker and less supportive for a variety of reasons (generational views, competing demands, bad economy, etc). 17/x
i.e., whatever Israel gets out of the US *now* is the most that it'll be getting. Israel will be left isolated in the Middle East surrounded by enemies. So parts of the leadership can't help but think: "Lets set this thing off now + weaken our enemies before its too late." 18/x
So the key thing to watch in the coming hours is: 1) *EXACTLY* how Israel responds to these attacks. ...and, MORE IMPORTANTLY... 2) How much support, IF ANY, the Biden Admin is willing to give. Israel can't go ALL IN MIDDLE EAST WAR NOW w/o US backing. 19/x
Expect DC neocons + the Israel lobby to hype up the war narrative like CRAZY for the next few hours/days. In my view, odds are that the Biden admin communicates "this is your shitshow" and tries to stay out of it. In this case, we get scenario 1. 20/20
@Smug_editing wow you saw it coming x.com/spectatorindex…
@Smug_editing wow you saw it coming x.com/spectatorindex…