Steven Hook @StevenHookpy
Joined August 2026-
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Steven Hook retweeted
未来的一点判断 美长债收益率、黄金、油价很可能正在建立正相关的时间段，直到危机爆发 昨日美债收益率暴跌，不是避险，是上升途中的调整，与美政府调整长、短债发行比例相对应 标普可能已经见顶，但未来很长时间也没有连续大跌 明年最迟后年，开始进入经济危机，是滞胀下的危机 对未来的判断不变
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Steven Hook retweeted
还是那句话，明年、最迟后年，我们会经历一场惨烈的经济危机，这是特朗普时代的礼物。
美股进入熊市肯定并不是最糟糕的。美股历史上有很多下跌10+%、20+%的熊市，数月之内就可以完成下跌，然后在不长的时间内回收跌幅，从长期来看更像是波动。 这一轮最糟糕的，大概率是，随着美股运行熊市，但通胀却持续上涨，上涨到现在的人们根本不敢相信的水平上。
Steven Hook retweeted
明年的经济危机，已经基本成为定数，最迟逃不过2028。 这是特朗普任期内的“世纪红利”，很可能是我从未经历过的经济危机（严重程度）。
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