Lewis S @Stroutsy

ERIC TRUMP SAYS MONEY IS ABOUT TO ROTATE OUT OF GOLD AND INTO BITCOIN!

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@justinaversano When narna 🍌

ALTCOINS ARE BUILDING A GIANT CUP & HANDLE. Multi-year bases are holding. Momentum is quietly returning. Liquidity is improving. This isn’t “full send” yet. It’s calm before the storm. And when this kind of compression breaks… it doesn’t grind higher. It goes vertical.

A lot of people have been asking for an update on this chart, so I’ll just leave this here for anyone who needs to see it.   This shows the average BTC trajectory following an oversold RSI reading, with RSI falling below 30 at t=0.   So far, it’s been pretty bang on.   Unless you believe the 4-year cycle is still in play, which we don’t, this chart should hold up contextually over time. No, it won’t be perfect, but assuming the bull market isn’t already over, it’s a useful chart to keep in mind.   As we’ve outlined many times, based on our work on the business cycle, the current path of financial conditions, and our expectations for overall liquidity, the balance of probabilities is that this cycle extends well into 2026.   In that world, the 4-year cycle is dead.   Remember, the 4-year cycle was never about the halving, despite widespread belief that it is, but instead has always been driven by the public debt refinancing cycle, as outlined in our work at GMI, which post-COVID was pushed out by one year. In our view, the 4-year cycle is now officially broken because the weighted average maturity of the debt term structure has increased. And the bigger picture is that there is still a vast amount of interest expense that needs to be monetized, which has far exceeded GDP growth. Another thing to keep in mind is that bases can take time to form and usually come with plenty of chop before the bigger up-move kicks in. Finally, let me repeat what I said when I first posted this chart last month.   If you think the bull market is over and we are now facing twelve months of pain, this chart is not for you. Move along...

BULLISH 🚨 RAOUL PAL JUST SAID THE #BITCOIN CRASH IS TEMPORARY, AND THE 4-YEAR CYCLE IS NOW DEAD AND WE ARE ABOUT TO GO PARABOLIC

.@RaoulGMI predicts alt season is coming in 2026 🔮

I wanted to give everyone something meaningful, a gift… This comes from Global Macro Investor (GMI) and a deep, long-running body of research developed by @RaoulGMI and myself. Many of you already know The Everything Code, which is our framework for understanding the macro landscape and why major central banks are debasing their currencies to manage aging demographics and overwhelming debt loads. I call this a gift because these four charts, while only scratching the surface of The Everything Code, give you the big-picture context you actually need in moments like this. They stop you from getting lost in every Bitcoin pullback and explain why Raoul and I never panic, even when, to borrow one of his expressions, everyone’s acting like monkeys throwing poo at each other. Once you understand The Everything Code, you stop trading short-term noise and expand your time horizon. You cannot unsee it. The starting point is what we call The Magic Formula: GDP growth = population growth + productivity growth + debt growth. Population growth and productivity growth have been falling for decades. Debt growth is the only thing filling the gap. The private sector has been deleveraging since 2008, mainly households, but debt levels are still around 120% of GDP. The public sector sits at roughly the same level. Here’s the problem… If the government is running debt at 100% of GDP and the private sector is sitting on another 100%, and for simple math we call rates 2% even though they are really closer to 4%, then the entire 2% trend growth of the economy is being consumed by servicing private-sector debts. That is a completely unproductive use of GDP. And then there’s the issue of public-sector debts. There’s just not enough organic growth to service the existing debt load. To understand why this dynamic persists, you need demographics. Birth rates peaked in the late 1950s and have been declining ever since. This shows up about sixteen years later in the labor force participation rate as each generation enters the workforce (chart 1). That means the labor force participation rate is not going to rise any time soon. It is set to keep drifting lower. This is a structural problem. Aging populations, falling birth rates, and rapidly expanding automation make the backdrop even more deflationary. AI and robotics are replacing humans at scale, and we are only at the beginning. This reinforces the need for ongoing stimulus to keep the system functioning. With weak population growth and sluggish productivity, the only way to keep GDP expanding is through debt. Now here’s where it gets interesting… Government debt growth is completely offsetting the demographic decline and policymakers know exactly what they are doing (chart 2). And what happens next? All debt growth in excess of GDP gets monetized (chart 3). Basically, since 2008, magic money has effectively been paying the interest. Governments issue new debt to cover old interest, and once rates fall enough, central banks absorb it onto their balance sheets. So to wrap this up, demographics drive the decline in the labor force. Governments offset that decline with more debt. That debt eventually gets monetized through quantitative easing (QE) style operations, not always directly by the Fed, but through the coordinated ecosystem of the Fed, the Treasury, and the banking system. And the bottom line is that there’s still a massive wall of interest that needs to be monetized, far more than GDP can ever cover. Liquidity is literally the only game in town. And what thrives in a world of perpetual debasement? Bitcoin (chart 4). I know this correction has been painful, but it’s all part of the journey. These periods feel brutal in the moment, then they fade and the trend resumes. This too shall pass… To quote Walter White from Breaking Bad, later echoed by @LynAldenContact, nothing stops this train. MOAR COWBELL (liquidity) = number go up over time. Zoom out and be more bullish…

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They’ll say we got lucky.

As expected, the groundwork is being laid to move liquidity operations from the Fed to the Treasury to allow more direct control over the funding of the debt and the rollover of it, using the banks as the conduit and the issuance of bills as the mechanism for liquidity injections. This is essentially state/politically managed debasement via fiscal dominance, removing the supposed "non-political" check and balance of an "independent" central bank.

Stephen Miran @SteveMiran

11 months ago

This morning I spoke about regulatory dominance of the Fed’s balance sheet. For all the talk about fiscal dominance, the truth is the Fed is forced to take actions on the balance sheet due to the regulatory framework binding banks. federalreserve.gov/newsevents/spe…

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BEAR TRAP IS HERE STOP PANIC AND LOOK AT THIS: - In 2017, $BTC jumped 350% after a 30% drop - In 2021, $BTC surged 220% after a 45% drop - In 2025, $BTC has dropped 25%... Don’t get shaken out - new highs are coming

All said and done, regardless of what sparked it, Friday was a "Flash Crash". Flash crashes usually recover in V-shapes back to their prior price/range and usually go on to make new highs shortly after. In this case, we entirely wiped out all accumulated leverage too. Higher.

Everything will be tokenized.

#Bitcoin UP-TOBER is here. WAKE-UP!

Golden cross for Altcoins. Send it! 🚀

@AndrewDTBR I also think it’s limited token supply causes it to be very volatile so it gets really affected by the dips in the market.

@basilthegreat great news for women in the Uk. criminal behaviour.

🚨18,500 AFGHANS BEING AIRLIFTED TO UK 🚨 THE GOVERNMENT TRIED TO HIDE IT BUT IT'S JUST BEEN LEAKED The UK Government had a superinjunction in place. This has now been lifted after 23 months of legal battles £7Billion operation at taxpayers expense to resettle Afghans in UK