Two notes I read every single morning , usually I keep this side of my personality on Substack , but I thought it might be useful
Steve jobs and Man in the Arena
Good one from Akash Prakash in todays edition of BS.
His view in short :
This much gloom is usually a contrarian buy signal & he expects the cycle to turn.
Still, he says India must act to stay attractive so it doesn’t drop off global investors’ radar.
#IndianStockMarket#EmergingMarkets#FinTwit
Akash Prakash is a neutral commentator.
When he explains why FIIs have lost interest in India, it is worth listening.
FIIs are now much less convinced about India’s growth story.
Unless the Finance Ministry makes substantial structural changes in capital markets, including taxation, there is no clear trigger right now to attract foreign capital.
As someone with a portfolio of energized land assets here is what I am seeing:
1. Neoclouds are disorganized and poorly capitalized. Some are definitely better than others however.
2. Hyperscalers are intractable, bureaucratic organizations that take 3 months to do an NDA and want 18mo escrow periods. We built our portfolio by competing against these terms because of our speed and simplicity. The more future assets orgs like ours win, the bigger the problem for the hyperscalers downstream (see 3).
3. There are delays in the existing pipeline that will catch people off guard in 2027. Hyperacalers will (obviously) react by focusing on their own internal compute needs over any third party. If the third party is a model company, they will tell them to go through their model router where they will also take a non-trivial vig. Them telling Ant they have no compute for them (rumored in Ant’s S-1) if true is a huge tell that this is already happening.
All of this is to say that it does look like there will be a lot of partially stranded compute and compute sitting in inventory in 2027 than is currently forecasted. This is bought and paid for but effectively underearning (below total cost of capital) or collecting dust. We see this as true for everyone - model companies, hyperscalers, neoclouds except ONE (you can guess which one).
This dislocation will benefit two kinds of orgs: the non-bureaucratic big scalers who can build industrial scale quickly and the nimble, well capitalized players feeding them.
2027 will be a turbulent year because it will clear out a bunch of wrong/bad bets. It will also be a consolidation year for a few.
NEW: I sat down w/ former Twitter CEO & CTO Parag Agrawal (@paraga)
Now Founder & CEO of $2B Parallel Web Systems (@p0).
Parag says we're underestimating AI agents by 5,000–10,000x, transforming the internet's economics entirely.
Forget the startup benchmark of 3x, 3x, 2x, 2x. Parag benchmarks this new agentic era against the growth of inference, roughly 10x a year, & says every estimate he’s made in this market has come in too low.
Parallel has raised $230M in total funding from funds like @IndexVentures, Kleiner Perkins & Khosla Ventures, building AI-native search infrastructure for customers like: Harvey, Lovable, Granola, Replit, LangChain, Profound, Modal, Notion & Browserbase.
Today, agent web usage is estimated at just 10–20% of human usage. Parag's own agents already run several thousand searches a day, & he believes we're still in the earliest stages of this transition.
The infrastructure implications are massive. Parag predicts that for every 10 GPUs used in model inference, another 1–2 will be required for web search alone.
The economic implications are equally significant. Traditional advertising, subscriptions & affiliate models depend on human attention and browsing behavior. As agents become the primary consumers of information, these models will need to be rebuilt, including how publishers get compensated when agents access their content.
We also covered:
› Why the web is shifting from reactive to proactive AI agents
› Sourcing GPUs & scaling search infrastructure
› Voice agents, latency & token efficiency
› Agent identity, bot detection & cybersecurity
› Scaling Parallel from 30 to 120 employees this year
We also spent time on Parag's 11 years at Twitter, where he went from engineer to CTO to CEO. We discussed the lessons from leading one of the world's most influential social platforms.
𝐓𝐈𝐌𝐄𝐒𝐓𝐀𝐌𝐏𝐒
(00:00) Parag Agrawal, Founder & CEO at Parallel
(01:03) What is Parallel AI?
(05:28) Bots took over the web & it’s only the start
(07:22) Will people stick with AI agents?
(11:55) Why models will get bigger, smarter & cheaper
(14:47) Where AI startups actually find GPUs
(19:43) Is 10x a year the new normal?
(21:59) Searching the web faster than you can blink
(26:02) AI that knows what you need before you do
(26:57) Agents are breaking the web’s business model
(31:08) Good bots vs bad bots
(33:45) Agents & the cyber arms race
(37:19) The web’s biggest problem with agents
(42:04) Why great models still give bad answers
(45:13) Parallel built a website for robots?
(47:56) Proactive agents & the future of search
(51:30) The person who drives Parag’s ambition
(55:50) Why feeling insecure is a superpower
Lonely and Right
Keynes said picking stocks is like a newspaper beauty contest: you don't win by picking the prettiest face, you win by picking the face everyone else picks.
Ninety years on, that's still the most honest description of my job which is sad because I think I know beauty.
Now the tortoise and the hare. Everyone tells it as "slow and steady wins." That's not the story. The story is that for 90% of the race the tortoise is losing. Badly. In public. The hare is at the cocktail party. The hare's LPs are thrilled. The hare is on the list. Then the tortoise wins at the end, and we tell it to children, and we leave out that the tortoise spent the whole race feeling like a fool.
So be honest. Would you rather win 90% of the race and lose at the end, or lose 90% of the race and win? Counted in years of your one life, the hare has the better deal. That is venture capital right now. The young partner in a venture firm would rather be the hare and jump to the next firm than be lonely as the tortoise.
The consensus deal is the hare. Expensive, crowded, fun. Everyone at dinner knows the company. The marks go up, the capital piles in, and for years you feel like you're winning, right up to the moment the music stops, which is the only moment that counts. The contrarian deal is the tortoise. It pays only if you're contrarian and right, and you find out which at the end. Until then you're on no list, nobody at dinner has heard of your company, and you look slow. Early and wrong feel identical from the inside. That's the whole difficulty.
So the real trade was never consensus versus contrarian. It's finding the thing that's contrarian today and consensus in eighteen months.
Buy the tortoise, then watch it grow legs. Cheap entry, then the multiple expands when the crowd arrives, and then you're back at the cocktail party being congratulated on your foresight by the same people who thought you were lonely.
Lonely and right, then crowded and rich.
That's the business. Finding the ugly duckling that's going to become a swan - that's where the alpha is.
What's contrarian now that I think flips? Held loosely:
1. Outcomes, not tokens. Everyone is selling the enterprise intelligence by the pound. The enterprise doesn't want intelligence. It wants the claim processed, the invoice reconciled, the ticket closed. One in five companies has AI in production; one in fourteen has rebuilt the factory. Whoever sells the other thirteen a finished outcome, priced like a result and not like a utility bill, wins the decade. It looks like a services business on the way in. So did Amazon.
2. Security that gets paid for the breach that didn't happen. The attackers have agents now, so every company on earth is about to be robbed at machine speed, and the defender's product is still a dashboard. The bet is the company that stops selling the dashboard and starts selling the result: we handle it, we're on the hook. Security and insurance were always the same business. Someone is about to notice.
3. The specialist labs. Not the frontier, which is consensus at a trillion, but the labs that do one thing for one industry at a hundredth the price.
4. The boring half of the physical world. Robotics is loud. Inspection, maintenance and warehouses are quiet, and the revenue lives in the quiet part.
I may be wrong about all four. That's rather the point. If I were sure, so would everyone, and then it wouldn't be a trade. It'd be a cocktail party.
Himadri shifted from coal tar pitch to EV battery anode materials & Did 13x Move
Radico Khaitan moved from bulk alcohol to premium brands & Delivered 14x Move
APAR Industries moved from generic cables to premium HTLS conductors & Delivered 23x Move
Deepak Nitrite moved from basic intermediates to phenol import substitution & Did 200x move
High-value Diversification rewires the P&L and multiples, it's the ultimate multibagger engine 🔥
Diversification can be the next growth catalyst 🔥
Some successful examples:
HFCL
Syrma SGS
Greaves Cotton
Amber Enterprises
Kaynes Technology
Some companies recently diversifying:
Enviro Infra Engineers - Into Renewable Energy
Symphony - Into ACs, BLDC Fans & Air Purifiers
Kirk’s baby sharkkffiifiriiioooiroorirjfjfjjfjtjtititiitjtitjuujujfjrrjnfjfjfmrmfmf non f no ongoing in jdjfjjfjfjfjfjffjigjfjfkfkiggkgkkgfkkffkfkkfffkkfkfkfkkttkktfjgkkgktkttkktktkttkkktkkjjkkkkktttktiiffifinffjfjjfjgkkgigj
A big congratulations to @KarlDeisseroth on winning his Nobel Prize in Medicine. His book Projections is a great collection of his experiences with patients dealing with mood disorders and autism. Dr. Karl Deisseroth’s work has fundamentally reshaped biology. He has enabled exploration of how cellular activity gives rise to the behavior of living organisms - extending even to the complex perceptions, cognitions, and emotions controlled by the brain.
Congratulations to our first #NobelPrize laureate of 2026 🎉
Early this morning Karl Deisseroth found out he was awarded this year's Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine.
He seems very happy with the news!
A very interesting contrarian view. The last time I went contrarian on a footwear stock was in Crocs. That had been a good call. I like this call too.
Disclosure: i am already invested.
We are initiating coverage of Nike $NKE today at $31.50 per share, following a tough FQ1 earnings report. We believe this is exactly the right time for long term-oriented investors to consider becoming co-owners of one of the world's most enduring consumer brands.
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