TechDav @Techdave_54
Entrepreneur | #Bitcoin and crypto analysis techdav52.substack.com Not Financial Advice Joined May 2016-
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If someone calls for an end-of-year top, your question should be “which year?” Why do you see some saying it’s early risk cycle? Because it’s early risk cycle.
Altcoins: slower but bigger They didn’t believe it then, they don’t believe it now.
Phases of the global business cycle… Dictate those of the Bitcoin cycle.
The Global Risk Index: A Framework for Cycle Precision techdev52.substack.com/p/techdev-news…
The Global Risk Index is a ratio of 3 simple macro signals. No weights, no fitting parameters. 3 signals independent of Bitcoin, larger than Bitcoin, that explain Bitcoin’s cycles. Discussed in latest issue, covered in more detail next week: techdev52.com/p/techdev-news…
Bitcoin has never had its hockey stick inflection until this global risk index crossed positive, like it just did.
Potentially significant.
This liquidity signal is 5 for 5 at launching Bitcoin to new heights. It has at least doubled each time.
Every Bitcoin top has been 14 months from this point, yet many think we’re almost done.
Altcoins. Chart needs no commentary.
Patterns within patterns. BTC’s small cup-and-handle targets 150k, the big one 300k. Identify your token/portolio’s nested structures to help project where it’s going. techdev52.com/p/techdev-news…
You need to consider the possibility that altcoin dominance is breaking out from a 7-year correction. That the 2021 leg wasn't even impulsive. That this 7-year RSI falling wedge will send altcoin strength on its first impulsive move in 8 years.
The rest of the alt market has broken out from its record-setting 51-month compression.
I would say you've never seen a monthly move as savage as ETH's, but you just saw it from BTC last cycle. Almost like ETH's always been one behind...
The market’s job for the last 4 years has been to make most forget that what’s about to happen, can happen.
Four-year altcoin dominance breakout.
Instead of trying to guess which news event is “cycle top” worthy, what if you just watched the cycle? Because the one that’s always mattered is at the bottom.
I sense the majority of this market is not ready for this next leg.
“If I put $100 in Bitcoin in 2010 I’d have $2.8B now.” No. If you bought $100 of Bitcoin in 2010 and watched it go to: $1k → $100k → $1.7M and did nothing Then watched $1.7M go to $170k and still did nothing Then watched $170k go to $110M and still did nothing Then…
It's all right there for you...
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