Narrative ≠ impact. Parsing noise into signal. Human error meets AI. The U.S. is the new monetary axis. Macro decoded. Policy | capital | compute.Joined January 2022
Set up to bail Japans bond market out .
In the full speech Powell emphasizes the Fed's role as a "globally knowledgeable and responsive central bank"
Positioning the Fed not just as a domestic institution but as a global stabilizer.
Set up to bail Japans bond market out .
In the full speech Powell emphasizes the Fed's role as a "globally knowledgeable and responsive central bank"
Positioning the Fed not just as a domestic institution but as a global stabilizer.
Moodys Downgrade: The Beautiful Paradox
"A downgrade should signal danger, but instead it signals necessity."
The credit downgrade should mean “U.S. debt is less safe.”
But structurally, it means:
Risk assets wobble
VIX spikes
FX pegs wobble
And suddenly... USTs are the only…
SPY Technical Read (5 min):
🔽 1. Recent rejection
Price rejected off the ORH (opening range high) and rolled over
Now sitting on the 20EMA cluster + VWAP (~560.20–560.50)
Candle structure shows momentum stall and pullback, not full reversal (yet)
💵 2. Volume Profile
Price…
Powell likely plays it neutral: inflation progress, labor balance, no rush to cut or hike.
Markets ready for relief:
SPY/QQQ: breakout setup
TLT: yields dip
DXY: softens
BTC/Gold: bounce
VIX: compresses
Liquidity’s back. Vol pinned. Only risk is if he leans hawkish.
📉 The Peg Defense Is Back, China’s Selling Treasuries, Again
This isn’t risk-off.
It’s not even fear.
This is what it looks like when a major economy defends its peg, by dumping Treasuries into a U.S. liquidity window.
The chart overlays USD/CNH, USD/JPY, DXY, and the 10Y…
📊 Macro Update – April 10, 2025 | 10:33am CST
🧨 Tariffs Weaponized: U.S.–China Tension Escalates
U.S. tariffs on China now total 145%, per CNBC citing a White House official. The market is reacting sharply, shifting from CPI euphoria to geopolitical repricing. Tech and…
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